Day 49: Wisconsin

[MaC]

Now here's an interesting state.  The Republicans came so close this year (it being one of I think three states that was under 50%)  Someone once said that it could be tipped if the northwest corner wasn't so Democratic.  I wouldn't call it a liberal state though.  Yes they did elect Feingold a very liberal senator, but Pennslyvania elected Santorum a very conservative senator, so you can't judge a state based on it's elected officials.  This brings me to another point: Can the more extremes get elected in swing states and do as well as they do in solid states? 

Okay, I'll stop and let everyone else talk...

[minionofmidas]

The state has some very interesting demographic patterns translating into presidential politics. Will you just look at the rural Dems in SW Wisconsin, and the middling-sized city Republicans in NE Wisconsin.
Apart from that, Milwaukee ultra Dem, Menominee IR ultra-Dem ever since Eisenhower tried to have them all killed by starvation, Duluth area ultra-Dem just like across the border in Minnesota, Milwaukee suburbs ultra-Rep.

[memphis]

The state has some very interesting demographic patterns translating into presidential politics. Will you just look at the rural Dems in SW Wisconsin, and the middling-sized city Republicans in NE Wisconsin.
Apart from that, Milwaukee ultra Dem, Menominee IR ultra-Dem ever since Eisenhower tried to have them all killed by starvation, Duluth area ultra-Dem just like across the border in Minnesota, Milwaukee suburbs ultra-Rep.

Don't forget Madison ultra Dem and Lake Winnebago area very Republican. Rural areas in Wisconsin are much more moderate than in most states.

[nclib]

I'm not sure about 2004, but in 2000 Bush won the Milwaukee metro and Gore won the rest of the state.

[minionofmidas]

The state has some very interesting demographic patterns translating into presidential politics. Will you just look at the rural Dems in SW Wisconsin, and the middling-sized city Republicans in NE Wisconsin.
Apart from that, Milwaukee ultra Dem, Menominee IR ultra-Dem ever since Eisenhower tried to have them all killed by starvation, Duluth area ultra-Dem just like across the border in Minnesota, Milwaukee suburbs ultra-Rep.

Don't forget Madison ultra Dem and Lake Winnebago area very Republican. Rural areas in Wisconsin are much more moderate than in most states.

I did forget to mention the Berkeley of the Midwest. Lake Winnebago area I included with NE Wisconsin.

Nclib - given just how Republican those suburbs are, that is quite likely. Should apply in 2004 as well.

[MissCatholic]

Dane county is hardcore liberal. Waukesha hard core republican. The dems need to work harder in the counties around lake winnebago.

But this state isnt liberal but its not moderate. its just in between. i think it likes watching political commericals because the moment one side gets ahead the people just start supporting the underdog. so its always 50-50.

Karen Hughes and Karl Rove and many other republican pollsters said watch wisconsin watch wisconsin as they were certain that they were going to win it finally. but they failed again.

Hopes will be high in 2008 again. Allen wont beat warner. if feingolds on the ticket its a certainty even if hillary is the nominee. i would be surprised if wisconsin voted republican in 2008. ithe dems just find a way to win.

[MasterJedi]

If the Republicans win more in the west they win can continuously win the state, if the Dems win more in the east they can continuosly win the state. If a Republican beats Doyle the state might go Rep. in 2008, if Doyle wins re-election it'll probably stay lean Dem.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the Republicans win more in the west they win can continuously win the state, if the Dems win more in the east they can continuosly win the state. If a Republican beats Doyle the state might go Rep. in 2008, if Doyle wins re-election it'll probably stay lean Dem.

you can't judge how a state is trending from a governor's race. Is Massachusetts trending Republican?

[MasterJedi]

If the Republicans win more in the west they win can continuously win the state, if the Dems win more in the east they can continuosly win the state. If a Republican beats Doyle the state might go Rep. in 2008, if Doyle wins re-election it'll probably stay lean Dem.

you can't judge how a state is trending from a governor's race. Is Massachusetts trending Republican?

Basically what I was saying is that the state might start to trend a little more Republican if one is elected and more than likely stay the way it is if Doyle is re-elected. That could all be false and not happen or it could be true, just something I think might indicate something.

[minionofmidas]

I think it likes watching political commericals because the moment one side gets ahead the people just start supporting the underdog. so its always 50-50.
 

Cool line.

Yeah, I was sort of expecting Bush to win Wisconsin - but to lose Iowa and New Mexico and possibly Ohio.

I did that little prediction model from the polls and skewed it by 1.5% to the Dems because I didn't want to predict a Bush win...Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Ohio all switched from Rep to Dem due to that. Wisconsin ended up the only one of these the Dems actually held...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wisconsin is tough to predict because it's so tough to poll. 3 reasons for this:

1-same day registration. Makes determining a "likely voter" almost impossible. Same thing here in Minnesota too
2-turnout in Milwaukee. Also almost impossible to predict, and even a slight variation can make a huge difference
3-Rural German Catholics. Some of the most fickle voters in the country. Very difficult to see how they'll turn. The best posters can figure this out, but still not predict the state because of 1 and 2.

So I don't think the state is trending anywhere. It's just very difficult to pin down.

[Joe Republic]

Dave's own poll tracker for WI showed a majority of polls giving Bush a consistent lead there in the final months.  This demonstrates how painfully difficult it is to accurately predict how it will eventually vote.  Whether this will continue depends on how much longer it remains a toss-up state.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think Wisconsin is the one state where Republicans usually end up doing worse than the polls predicted.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think Wisconsin is the one state where Republicans usually end up doing worse than the polls predicted.

Wait...actually Louisiana is too, but that's only because Louisiana has that weird system where elections are often decided after all the other states. People in Louisiana see the Republicans have won everywhere else, so they think, "Hey, I better not let that happen here."

[Sam Spade]

Ask Vorlon:  Wisconsin is simply a place where you don't trust polls.

There were also some highly amusing voting irregularities there this election cycle also.

Don't expect Wisconsin to change from being the swing state it has for the last 40-50 years; I think it likes the designation.

[nclib]

Nclib - given just how Republican those suburbs are, that is quite likely. Should apply in 2004 as well.

Why are the Milwaukee suburbs so Republican?

[memphis]

Why is Rock County so Democratic?

[minionofmidas]

Nclib - given just how Republican those suburbs are, that is quite likely. Should apply in 2004 as well.

Why are the Milwaukee suburbs so Republican?

Good question. I know there used to be lots of Germans in Milwaukee, and they're probably mostly in the suburbs now, but whether that's the only reason I know not.

[MasterJedi]

Nclib - given just how Republican those suburbs are, that is quite likely. Should apply in 2004 as well.

Why are the Milwaukee suburbs so Republican?

Good question. I know there used to be lots of Germans in Milwaukee, and they're probably mostly in the suburbs now, but whether that's the only reason I know not.

That's partially true that it's also very white and mid-upper class.

[memphis]

Nclib - given just how Republican those suburbs are, that is quite likely. Should apply in 2004 as well.

Why are the Milwaukee suburbs so Republican?

Good question. I know there used to be lots of Germans in Milwaukee, and they're probably mostly in the suburbs now, but whether that's the only reason I know not.

That's partially true that it's also very white and mid-upper class.

Are Germans especially Republican? We don't have any where I live, so I don't know. Is this why Milwaukee's suburbs are so much more Republican than those of neighboring cities such as Minneapolis, Chicago, and Detroit.

[Democratic Hawk]

Why's Menominee so overhelmingly Democrat?

Dave

[danwxman]

Nclib - given just how Republican those suburbs are, that is quite likely. Should apply in 2004 as well.

Why are the Milwaukee suburbs so Republican?

Good question. I know there used to be lots of Germans in Milwaukee, and they're probably mostly in the suburbs now, but whether that's the only reason I know not.

That's partially true that it's also very white and mid-upper class.

Are Germans especially Republican? We don't have any where I live, so I don't know. Is this why Milwaukee's suburbs are so much more Republican than those of neighboring cities such as Minneapolis, Chicago, and Detroit.

At least in PA, Germans are ultra-Republican. Look at Central Pennsylvania for an example of that.

[Sarnstrom]

Why's Menominee so overhelmingly Democrat?

Dave

Indian Reservation.

[minionofmidas]

Why's Menominee so overhelmingly Democrat?

Dave

Indian Reservation.

...that was terminated by the Republicans in the 50s, leading to acute starvation. Restored a couple years later.

[Democratic Hawk]

Why's Menominee so overhelmingly Democrat?

Dave

Indian Reservation.

...that was terminated by the Republicans in the 50s, leading to acute starvation. Restored a couple years later.

Not surprisingly overwhelmingly Democratic then

Dave