A Polling Free-Fall Among Blacks (just 2% support Bush)
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Author Topic: A Polling Free-Fall Among Blacks (just 2% support Bush)  (Read 1991 times)
A18
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« Reply #25 on: October 20, 2005, 07:32:37 PM »
Quote from: freedomburns on October 14, 2005, 02:50:42 PM

Vorlon has seen the light and swiched camps.  He will soon be changing his name to "The Shadows".

I'd prefer an answer from someone who isn't mentally ill.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #26 on: October 20, 2005, 07:49:03 PM »
Quote from: The Vorlon on October 13, 2005, 04:52:40 PM
To think of this intuitively, if you want to know the true probability of flipping a coin (almost 50/50) you have to get a really big sample to determine that it actually is 50/50. - Even with a sample of 1000 about 1/3 of your samples will be out by 3% (ie 515 to 485 or more)

By contrast, You need to flip very few coins to determine that coins usually land on one of their faces, and very rarely stand up on their edge after you flip them...

I saw a D-CA avatar and a post about coin flipping... I was about to start throwing things.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #27 on: October 20, 2005, 09:30:37 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on October 20, 2005, 07:49:03 PM
Quote from: The Vorlon on October 13, 2005, 04:52:40 PM
To think of this intuitively, if you want to know the true probability of flipping a coin (almost 50/50) you have to get a really big sample to determine that it actually is 50/50. - Even with a sample of 1000 about 1/3 of your samples will be out by 3% (ie 515 to 485 or more)

By contrast, You need to flip very few coins to determine that coins usually land on one of their faces, and very rarely stand up on their edge after you flip them...

I saw a D-CA avatar and a post about coin flipping... I was about to start throwing things.

Yeah, but I can say with 100% confidence you would have missed the poster.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #28 on: October 20, 2005, 09:40:37 PM »
Quote from: Tredrick on October 20, 2005, 09:30:37 PM
Quote from: Joe Republic on October 20, 2005, 07:49:03 PM
Quote from: The Vorlon on October 13, 2005, 04:52:40 PM
To think of this intuitively, if you want to know the true probability of flipping a coin (almost 50/50) you have to get a really big sample to determine that it actually is 50/50. - Even with a sample of 1000 about 1/3 of your samples will be out by 3% (ie 515 to 485 or more)

By contrast, You need to flip very few coins to determine that coins usually land on one of their faces, and very rarely stand up on their edge after you flip them...

I saw a D-CA avatar and a post about coin flipping... I was about to start throwing things.

Yeah, but I can say with 100% confidence you would have missed the poster.

Perhaps, but is that statistically significant?
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