The John Ford quote in my signature

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One of the few cases where me and him see eye to eye. And he said so again today.

I am reminded of the episode Angel with "Jasmine". Remember that one? Where the demon from the other dimension got Cordelia pregnant, than came into this world in the apperance of a black woman and everyone was hypnotized in just loving her except those who had touched her blood? And the only other way to make her true appearance known to everyone was to say her true name, so Angel went to the other dimension to kill the demon to get her true name and then broadcast it on national TV? Well that's kind of how I think the 9/11 to Katrina path was like. Only a few people after 9/11 who saw through him, gradually increased as they spread Jasmine's blood. But the spell didn't really wear off until Katrina showed that no, Bush is not competant, he is not a strong leader, and he is not good at handling crises, something that people have been deluded of since 9/11. The spell has worn off, and it's tough to see it coming back. That's what I think of Bush now.

[King]

I say Yes, but it is more like Slight Lean Yes as it he still has 3 years to rebound.  Every President has had approval ratings in their low 30s and in many cases they finish their term on a positive note.  I'm just not sure that Dubya has the leadership value to rebound.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes. Right now it's 38-39, and there might be some big indictments coming down. He'd be lucky to have a plurality ever approve again, let alone a majority (which doesn't make you popular either).

[MODU]

As I said in the thread which this quote comes from, popular would mean reaching 50%, since the Democrats would never offer up a positive response to the poll.  So, 50% is attainable, so I say yes.

[Blue Rectangle]

He'll leave office with just over 50% approval.  Also, his approval will likely go up over time, since this is often the case for ex-politicians.  People tend to remember the good things in the long run; Nixon was at his most popular during his memorial service.

As for breaking 50% sometime during the next 39 months, I think it's fairly likely.  We're talking about a long time here, and Americans tend to have short memories.  Remember that Clinton seemed headed for certain failure in the first two years and shortly after the "Republican Revolution".  A year latter, Clinton had reinvented himself, the Republicans were on the defensive, and Dole's candidacy was going down in flames.

[minionofmidas]

The Bush is a Black Woman and a Demon theory is... interesting to read, btw.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Bush is a Black Woman and a Demon theory is... interesting to read, btw.

Kind of tough to explain if you ddin't see the show. I don't know if they showed it in Germany. It's too bad the ending on the last episode SUCKED, although that's largely because the network decided to cancel it midseason and they had only half a season to wrap the whole thing up.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I am reminded of the episode Angel with "Jasmine". Remember that one?

uh, no

[The Duke]

I don't think simply breakng 50% is popular.

[MODU]

I don't think simply breakng 50% is popular.

For a politcally divided country, it's a good sign.  With a large majority of the Democratic population in the country refusing to give Bush any credit at all, you can't get much more than 55-60% (assuming 100% of the Republican and Indepenent/3rd Party members do put their support behind him).  However, I go back to what I said earlier . . . it's history that will show how good/bad he was as a President.  Popularity polls tend to be much more erratic that historical reflection.

[The Duke]

I don't think simply breakng 50% is popular.

For a politcally divided country, it's a good sign.  With a large majority of the Democratic population in the country refusing to give Bush any credit at all, you can't get much more than 55-60% (assuming 100% of the Republican and Indepenent/3rd Party members do put their support behind him).  However, I go back to what I said earlier . . . it's history that will show how good/bad he was as a President.  Popularity polls tend to be much more erratic that historical reflection.

Bill Clinton left office with a near 60% approval rating in this allegedly divided country after having embarrassed himself repeatedly and publicly.  I simply can't accept the idea that the country is too divided to have someone more popular than 50% or so.  Its the fact the George Bush isn't any good at his job anymore that's driving down his approval.

[© tweed]

No.  He'll be over 50% in a calendar year.  And that's not even a best-case scenario.  Right now the people that dislike him are largely the hard left and hard right...and that hard right will again fall in line once the Miers issue is out of the forefront.

[Blue Rectangle]

No.  He'll be over 50% in a calendar year.  And that's not even a best-case scenario.  Right now the people that dislike him are largely the hard left and hard right...and that hard right will again fall in line once the Miers issue is out of the forefront.

Are you going to change to a blue avatar for a few hours again after making that statement?

BTW, I agree with your theory.

[MODU]

I don't think simply breakng 50% is popular.

For a politcally divided country, it's a good sign.  With a large majority of the Democratic population in the country refusing to give Bush any credit at all, you can't get much more than 55-60% (assuming 100% of the Republican and Indepenent/3rd Party members do put their support behind him).  However, I go back to what I said earlier . . . it's history that will show how good/bad he was as a President.  Popularity polls tend to be much more erratic that historical reflection.

Bill Clinton left office with a near 60% approval rating in this allegedly divided country after having embarrassed himself repeatedly and publicly.  I simply can't accept the idea that the country is too divided to have someone more popular than 50% or so.

You just made my case.  In a highly divided country, 60% is probably the best a President can do in a popularity contest poll.  Clinton experienced the same kind of dip in his popularity during his term that Bush has.  "Approval" ratings, however, can only really be done once the President has left office and the effects of their decisions have had a chance to play out.

[© tweed]

No.  He'll be over 50% in a calendar year.  And that's not even a best-case scenario.  Right now the people that dislike him are largely the hard left and hard right...and that hard right will again fall in line once the Miers issue is out of the forefront.

Are you going to change to a blue avatar for a few hours again after making that statement?

BTW, I agree with your theory.

I don't like Bush.  I'm just realistic about his (future) popularity.

[The Duke]

I don't think simply breakng 50% is popular.

For a politcally divided country, it's a good sign.  With a large majority of the Democratic population in the country refusing to give Bush any credit at all, you can't get much more than 55-60% (assuming 100% of the Republican and Indepenent/3rd Party members do put their support behind him).  However, I go back to what I said earlier . . . it's history that will show how good/bad he was as a President.  Popularity polls tend to be much more erratic that historical reflection.

Bill Clinton left office with a near 60% approval rating in this allegedly divided country after having embarrassed himself repeatedly and publicly.  I simply can't accept the idea that the country is too divided to have someone more popular than 50% or so.

You just made my case.  In a highly divided country, 60% is probably the best a President can do in a popularity contest poll.  Clinton experienced the same kind of dip in his popularity during his term that Bush has.  "Approval" ratings, however, can only really be done once the President has left office and the effects of their decisions have had a chance to play out.

How have I made your case?  I've shown that even a buffoon can get a 60% approval rating, even in today's America.  I can't fathon how anyone would interpret what I've said as subtantiating the idea that in a today's America, 60% is unattainable.  The exact opposite is true!  It has already been attained!  Trouble is you have to be competent to achieve that.

No.  He'll be over 50% in a calendar year.  And that's not even a best-case scenario.  Right now the people that dislike him are largely the hard left and hard right...and that hard right will again fall in line once the Miers issue is out of the forefront.

Even if this is true, I've already said I don't think 50% is popular.  It pretty average.

[MODU]

How have I made your case?  I've shown that even a buffoon can get a 60% approval rating, even in today's America.  I can't fathon how anyone would interpret what I've said as subtantiating the idea that in a today's America, 60% is unattainable.  The exact opposite is true!  It has already been attained!  Trouble is you have to be competent to achieve that.

What is it to be popular?  It is to have a 50.1%+ popularity rating.  What is it to be unpopular?  It's to have a 49.9%- popularity rating.  In a highly polarized society, being able to have the support of your party and that of the Independents, you are popular.  So, With Clinton being near 60% while in office means he was popular.  So, if Bush goes above 50% or even up to 60% by the time he leaves office, he will be considered popular.  However, "popularity" is nothing.  It's just emotion.  I would rather have a President that is unpopular according to the polls and sticking with most of his decisions rather than someone who is popular according to the polls and drifts back and forth on issues based upon the weekly opinion polls.  That is why it's not the popularity polls you should be looking at but rather the approval ratings following the exit from office.

[PBrunsel]

The John Ford Quote Through History

1806: "AAAAH! Jefferson's embargo is costing us a fortune!"

This President will never be popular again.

1907: "AAAAH! Teddy Roosevelt's trust busting has caused this recession!"

This President will never be popular again.

1937: "FDR's court packing scheme has failed."

This President will never be popular again.

1957: "Well we just lost the space race President Eisenhower, ya' idiot."

This President will never be popular again.

1994: "That Universal health care plan has really done in Mr. Clinton, hasn't it?"

This President will never be popular again.

[The Duke]

How have I made your case?  I've shown that even a buffoon can get a 60% approval rating, even in today's America.  I can't fathon how anyone would interpret what I've said as subtantiating the idea that in a today's America, 60% is unattainable.  The exact opposite is true!  It has already been attained!  Trouble is you have to be competent to achieve that.

What is it to be popular?  It is to have a 50.1%+ popularity rating.  What is it to be unpopular?  It's to have a 49.9%- popularity rating.  In a highly polarized society, being able to have the support of your party and that of the Independents, you are popular.  So, With Clinton being near 60% while in office means he was popular.  So, if Bush goes above 50% or even up to 60% by the time he leaves office, he will be considered popular.  However, "popularity" is nothing.  It's just emotion.  I would rather have a President that is unpopular according to the polls and sticking with most of his decisions rather than someone who is popular according to the polls and drifts back and forth on issues based upon the weekly opinion polls.  That is why it's not the popularity polls you should be looking at but rather the approval ratings following the exit from office.

I've said a bunch of times, I just don't consider 50% to be popular.

The John Ford Quote Through History

1806: "AAAAH! Jefferson's embargo is costing us a fortune!"

This President will never be popular again.

1907: "AAAAH! Teddy Roosevelt's trust busting has caused this recession!"

This President will never be popular again.

1937: "FDR's court packing scheme has failed."

This President will never be popular again.

1957: "Well we just lost the space race President Eisenhower, ya' idiot."

This President will never be popular again.

1994: "That Universal health care plan has really done in Mr. Clinton, hasn't it?"

This President will never be popular again.

Or after your boy Hoover had to watch stock market crumble.

Yes, sometimes politicans get hit and never recover, and guess what: As Hoover learned, it's not always fair that it happens this way.

[12th Doctor]

I don't think simply breakng 50% is popular.

For a politcally divided country, it's a good sign.  With a large majority of the Democratic population in the country refusing to give Bush any credit at all, you can't get much more than 55-60% (assuming 100% of the Republican and Indepenent/3rd Party members do put their support behind him).  However, I go back to what I said earlier . . . it's history that will show how good/bad he was as a President.  Popularity polls tend to be much more erratic that historical reflection.

Bill Clinton left office with a near 60% approval rating in this allegedly divided country after having embarrassed himself repeatedly and publicly.  I simply can't accept the idea that the country is too divided to have someone more popular than 50% or so.  Its the fact the George Bush isn't any good at his job anymore that's driving down his approval.

If people knew that the economy was starting to tank and that we were about to get hit with the largest terrorist attack on US soil, I bet his numbers would not have been so high.

Plus, I remember that they continued doing Clinton approval polls the first couple months Bush was in office and his numbers sunk to about 50% because of "Pardongate".

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No.  He'll be over 50% in a calendar year.  And that's not even a best-case scenario.  Right now the people that dislike him are largely the hard left and hard right...and that hard right will again fall in line once the Miers issue is out of the forefront.

Are you going to change to a blue avatar for a few hours again after making that statement?

BTW, I agree with your theory.

I don't like Bush.  I'm just realistic about his (future) popularity.

What's going to increase Bush's popularity? DeLay getting arrested?

[© tweed]

No.  He'll be over 50% in a calendar year.  And that's not even a best-case scenario.  Right now the people that dislike him are largely the hard left and hard right...and that hard right will again fall in line once the Miers issue is out of the forefront.

Are you going to change to a blue avatar for a few hours again after making that statement?

BTW, I agree with your theory.

I don't like Bush.  I'm just realistic about his (future) popularity.

What's going to increase Bush's popularity? DeLay getting arrested?

Conservatives and some moderates will unite behind him again.  Most of the newly disappoving peoples are on the right and center-right.  jmfcst even hopped back on board today, a week after demeaning Bush as 'incompetent'.

[Democratic Hawk]

jmfcst even hopped back on board today, a week after demeaning Bush as 'incompetent'.

On that, I'd say jmfcst is spot-on

Dave

[TommyC1776]

yes