Mississippi....strange place

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Gives Nixon 13% in 1968......79%!!! in 1972, splits right down the middle in 1976.  I'm most intrigued by Goldwater's 87% in '64.  It's almost if the entire state got together and made up who everyone was voting for. 

[minionofmidas]

Just the state's Whites.

[memphis]

Mississippi is a very simple state politically. For all elections before the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and after Reconstruction, only whites are voting. Before 1948 Mississippi is solidly Democratic because the Republicans had freed the slaves and blocked their treason during the Civil War. Truman pressed hard for Civil Rights during the '48 campaign, causing a rift between the South and the Democrats. Alienated from both parties, the Deep South voted for segregationist candidates (Thurmond, Byrd, Goldwater, Wallace) through 1968. Whites in the South finally realized the futility of throwing away their voice by voting for a third party and instead took over the Republican Party. Jimmy Carter pulled off Mississippi (barely) by getting all of the black vote and just enough white vote (he was a Southerner running against a moderate Republican just after Watergate) to capture the state.    Since 1980, if you are white in Mississippi you vote for the Republican presidential candidate and if you are black you vote for the Democrat. Interestingly, this pattern does not always apply in local elections.

[skybridge]

Gives Nixon 13% in 1968......79%!!! in 1972, splits right down the middle in 1976.  I'm most intrigued by Goldwater's 87% in '64.  It's almost if the entire state got together and made up who everyone was voting for. 

87% out of barely 30% turnout!

[7,052,770]

Mississippi is a very simple state politically. For all elections before the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and after Reconstruction, only whites are voting. Before 1948 Mississippi is solidly Democratic because the Republicans had freed the slaves and blocked their treason during the Civil War. Truman pressed hard for Civil Rights during the '48 campaign, causing a rift between the South and the Democrats. Alienated from both parties, the Deep South voted for segregationist candidates (Thurmond, Byrd, Goldwater, Wallace) through 1968. Whites in the South finally realized the futility of throwing away their voice by voting for a third party and instead took over the Republican Party. Jimmy Carter pulled off Mississippi (barely) by getting all of the black vote and just enough white vote (he was a Southerner running against a moderate Republican just after Watergate) to capture the state.    Since 1980, if you are white in Mississippi you vote for the Republican presidential candidate and if you are black you vote for the Democrat. Interestingly, this pattern does not always apply in local elections.

you basically hit it on the head.

BUT!  Kerry won MS in the 18-29 category, so there is hope for our future!

[Alcon]

Mississippi is a very simple state politically. For all elections before the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and after Reconstruction, only whites are voting. Before 1948 Mississippi is solidly Democratic because the Republicans had freed the slaves and blocked their treason during the Civil War. Truman pressed hard for Civil Rights during the '48 campaign, causing a rift between the South and the Democrats. Alienated from both parties, the Deep South voted for segregationist candidates (Thurmond, Byrd, Goldwater, Wallace) through 1968. Whites in the South finally realized the futility of throwing away their voice by voting for a third party and instead took over the Republican Party. Jimmy Carter pulled off Mississippi (barely) by getting all of the black vote and just enough white vote (he was a Southerner running against a moderate Republican just after Watergate) to capture the state.    Since 1980, if you are white in Mississippi you vote for the Republican presidential candidate and if you are black you vote for the Democrat. Interestingly, this pattern does not always apply in local elections.

you basically hit it on the head.

BUT!  Kerry won MS in the 18-29 category, so there is hope for our future!

CNN said by 63%...I don't buy that, nor most any exit poll statistic.  Sorry.

[memphis]

Mississippi is a very simple state politically. For all elections before the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and after Reconstruction, only whites are voting. Before 1948 Mississippi is solidly Democratic because the Republicans had freed the slaves and blocked their treason during the Civil War. Truman pressed hard for Civil Rights during the '48 campaign, causing a rift between the South and the Democrats. Alienated from both parties, the Deep South voted for segregationist candidates (Thurmond, Byrd, Goldwater, Wallace) through 1968. Whites in the South finally realized the futility of throwing away their voice by voting for a third party and instead took over the Republican Party. Jimmy Carter pulled off Mississippi (barely) by getting all of the black vote and just enough white vote (he was a Southerner running against a moderate Republican just after Watergate) to capture the state.    Since 1980, if you are white in Mississippi you vote for the Republican presidential candidate and if you are black you vote for the Democrat. Interestingly, this pattern does not always apply in local elections.

you basically hit it on the head.

BUT!  Kerry won MS in the 18-29 category, so there is hope for our future!

CNN said by 63%...I don't buy that, nor most any exit poll statistic.  Sorry.

I know the stat that you are referencing and I believe that somebody at CNN entered it backwards on the website.  That is the only logical explaination for it.

[Alcon]

Mississippi is a very simple state politically. For all elections before the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and after Reconstruction, only whites are voting. Before 1948 Mississippi is solidly Democratic because the Republicans had freed the slaves and blocked their treason during the Civil War. Truman pressed hard for Civil Rights during the '48 campaign, causing a rift between the South and the Democrats. Alienated from both parties, the Deep South voted for segregationist candidates (Thurmond, Byrd, Goldwater, Wallace) through 1968. Whites in the South finally realized the futility of throwing away their voice by voting for a third party and instead took over the Republican Party. Jimmy Carter pulled off Mississippi (barely) by getting all of the black vote and just enough white vote (he was a Southerner running against a moderate Republican just after Watergate) to capture the state.    Since 1980, if you are white in Mississippi you vote for the Republican presidential candidate and if you are black you vote for the Democrat. Interestingly, this pattern does not always apply in local elections.

you basically hit it on the head.

BUT!  Kerry won MS in the 18-29 category, so there is hope for our future!

CNN said by 63%...I don't buy that, nor most any exit poll statistic.  Sorry.

I know the stat that you are referencing and I believe that somebody at CNN entered it backwards on the website.  That is the only logical explaination for it.

Good theory, but the numbers add up with those 18-29 numbers, I believe.  They just messed up, it seems.

[minionofmidas]

The subsample's size was probably not all that large. Also, is the racial breakdown of 18-29 year olds different from that of older people? Was turnout by race different?

[AuH2O]

Bush DESTROYED Kerry in the 18-29 category in Mississippi. When I have time I can get you something pretty close to what really happened.

CNN's "exit polls" bear no relation to reality.

[memphis]

Bush DESTROYED Kerry in the 18-29 category in Mississippi. When I have time I can get you something pretty close to what really happened.

CNN's "exit polls" bear no relation to reality.

CNN's exit polls are generally very good. That one stat is highly suspicious. There is no way Kerry won 50% among 18-29 in MS. Greater than 60 is absurd for Kerry is absurd. I wish this were not the case, but it is.

[7,052,770]

Bush DESTROYED Kerry in the 18-29 category in Mississippi. When I have time I can get you something pretty close to what really happened.

CNN's "exit polls" bear no relation to reality.

What evidence do you have that he DESTROYED Kerry?

Mississippi is 40% black, and I would guess (don't flame me if I'm wrong), that the 18-29 % of black people is higher because black people seem to have more kids.  Young black people are more likely to turn out than older black people, so the % of the black vote is going to be much higher in the 18-29 age group than the total MS voters.  Quite a few HS students even in the fascist place I live supported Kerry whilst their parents backed Bush.  Kerry would've broken 40% in my high school (we didn't have an official poll, but the poll in our school newspaper was about 60-40), in one of the most conservative cities and counties in the state.
Whether or not Kerry broke 60% in MS, I dont know, but I definitely believe it's quite plausible that Kerry won the 18-29 group.

[Joe Republic]

You don't find this suspicious?

[7,052,770]

You don't find this suspicious?

considering the demographics of Mississippi, I would say it's unexpected, but not suspicious.

Remember (well actually there's no way you would) the Channel 1 poll that polled high school students across the country?  Bush did better in it than he did in the actual election, but in MS it was really close.

[Alcon]

You don't find this suspicious?

(snip)

considering the demographics of Mississippi, I would say it's unexpected, but not suspicious.

Remember (well actually there's no way you would) the Channel 1 poll that polled high school students across the country?  Bush did better in it than he did in the actual election, but in MS it was really close.

I believe Channel One even less.



Montana >70% Bush?  South Carolina and Mississippi more Democratic than Washington?  Mississippi as Democratic as California?  Uh-huh.

[jokerman]

What can I say, kids my age aren't that aware politically.  Frankly most of the ones I've talked to solely supported Bush because "kerry supports homos and killing babies."

[Max Power]

What can I say, kids my age aren't that aware politically.  Frankly most of the ones I've talked to solely supported Bush because "kerry supports homos and killing babies."

Most of the school district I live in is like that. A bunch of assholes with no political knowledge and positions like that. The Channel One poll just shows the obvious. Most inner-city schools don't get Channel One, and our school didn't even get the vote things even though we get channel one.

[7,052,770]

What can I say, kids my age aren't that aware politically.  Frankly most of the ones I've talked to solely supported Bush because "kerry supports homos and killing babies."

Most of the school district I live in is like that. A bunch of assholes with no political knowledge and positions like that. The Channel One poll just shows the obvious. Most inner-city schools don't get Channel One, and our school didn't even get the vote things even though we get channel one.

true; I'm pretty sure most black schools in Mississippi probably don't do channel 1.  Yet Kerry still almost won among high schoolers.  Here at college there are more liberals than you'd expect.  At our Youth Democrats of Mississippi meeting our president talked about how the youngest group was way more Democratic (he didn't say how much exactly) than any other group.
I believe that Kerry won the under 30's here.  He just got bitched slapped in every other age group.