UK: Callaghan runs and wins in 1978

[Michael Z]

In Tribute to James Callaghan (1912 - 2005).

This is something I wrote as a homage to Jim Callaghan briefly after his death in March, but did not get around to posting until now. It's basically an alternate timeline outlining the kinds of events which may have occured had Callaghan decided to call a general election in 1978, as well as suggesting a halfway feasible scenario in which he would have been the country's longest-serving Prime Minister. I hope it'll make for an interesting read.

1978
After two years as Prime Minister, James Callaghan has reached something of a crossroads with the Lib-Lab coalition in deadlock and several years of a virtually hung Parliament. During a speech in Exeter, Callaghan eventually calls for a General Election to be held in October 1978, as widely expected.

Thatcher fails to capitalise on Labour's poor economic record and growing unemployment, as the widespread perception of Callaghan's government is of one that, in spite of its imperfections, deserves a further mandate for power. Labour win the election, gaining a further 12 seats.

Having consolidated his majority, albeit only slightly, Labour effectively freed itself from the constraints of a Lib-Lab pact. Callaghan now aims to create some distance between his party and the unions. His first move is to reverse the Wilsonian tradition of having a balanced cabinet between the right and the left of the party, removing prominent leftist figures like Michael Foot and Tony Benn from his cabinet. This move is partly designed to revoke accusations of extremism which permeate the fledging right-wing press in the country.

In the post-election reshuffle, a young MP from Bedwelty, Neil Kinnock, is installed as a junior minister under new Home Secretary Roy Mason.

1979
In an unprecedented move, Prime Minister James Callaghan calls for a loosening of pay restraints, thus alleviating fears of a general strike and averting what would have been an absolute disaster for the Labour Party. However, it's a move which Thatcher described as "too little, too late - and not entirely inconsistent either". As the unions rejected any moves to consolidate the revoked pay restraints, a succession of minor strikes hits the country (albeit nowhere near as disastrous as the general strikes which would have taken effect had Callaghan not been able to find a compromise with the unions vis-a-vis the pay issue - and which, by the way, did occur in reality).

In February 1979, following a major rail strike, the Conservative opposition calls for an immediate Motion of No Confidence - a move which, had things stood as they were a year previously, would doubtlessly have broken the Callaghan administration. However, with things as they were, and a consolidated majority in Parliament, Callaghan defeats Thatcher, a victory which, in the eyes of many including the media, holds symbolic as well as legislative value. It's a result which will eventually cause deep splits within the Conservative Party for years to come.

In spite of the victory, Callaghan decides on another reshuffle, installing David Owen as Secretary of Defense while John Smith replaces him as Foreign Secretary. Roy Hattersley becomes Minister for Transport. Michael Foot is reintroduced to the cabinet, albeit in the minor and purely titular role as Chairman of the Labour Party - perhaps designed to hold some symbolic value by reaching out to the alienated hard left (also called the Militant Wing) of the Party. Equally, Tony Benn becomes Leader of the House Of Commons.

1980
The Conservative Party realises a crisis entirely of its own making as many party members, particularly on the liberal wing of the party, grow increasingly disillusioned with Thatcher's leadership style - one MP, Anthony Meyer, even goes as far as calling it "nigh on dictatorial". Rumours of a leadership challenge abound as Thatcher fails to gain momentum from the perceived failures of the Callaghan administration.

Having managed to secure some solace between so-called Militants like Benn and Foot on one side and moderates like Owen and Smith on the other, Callaghan's government succeeds in cutting unemployment by introducing policies which promote market flexibility whilst not immediately calling for radical measures such as large-scale privatisation. In the broadsheets it is Callaghan's government which is largely portrayed as moderate whereas Thatcher is denounced as a right-wing radical.

1981
In March 1981, during a speech in the House of Commons, Tory MP Peter Walker comments that Edward Heath would have won the 1978 election with a considerable majority. His remarks effectively spark an internal revolt within the Conversative Party between those members loyal to party leader Margaret Thatcher (most noteably Shadow Cabinet members such as Keith Joseph, Norman Tebbit, and Nigel Lawson) and those who want a change in leadership (most of whom are additionally bitter over Heath’s 1975 defeat).

As part of this internal party revolt, Conservative MPs vote with the government in several key bills on economic proposals far at odds with Thatcher's. It later surfaces that MP Cecil Parkinson, in a private meeting with Thatcher, suggests she resigns. Two weeks afterwards, with polls showing a solid Labour lead of 40%, Thatcher announces her resignation as leader of the Conservative Party. During an emotional speech in the House Of Commons, Thatcher announces that her position as leader of the Party had become "untenable". "It is no easy feat, to lead from the front, when you are grieviously bitten in the back", she says in a thinly veiled attack on her detractors.

William Whitelaw is elected Conservative Party leader after a closely-fought contest between himself, Norman Tebbit, Geoffrey Howe, and Cecil Parkinson (who drops out of the race one week before the race and throws his support behind Whitelaw). Whitelaw is regarded as a compromise candidate between the Thatcher- and Heath wings and therefore most able to heal the fractions which surfaced over Thatcher’s resignation.

1982
Festering divisions within the Conservative Party are brought to near-escalation when Norman Tebbit, publically backed by Margaret Thatcher and the signatures of 20 other backbench Tory MPs, challenges Whitelaw to another leadership contest. Even though Whitelaw wins convincingly, the image is one of a Conservative Party hopelessly divided, one which the Labour Party is all too keen to exploit. To roars of approval from the Labour benches, Callaghan says the Conservative Party "shamelessly exploits every opportunity it can find to appeal to the basest instincts of the British people", but that "the people are far more intelligent than the Tories think they are, and have the ability to see through what is at best a shambolically divided party". In spite of this, opinion polls surprisingly suggest a Tory lead for the first time in two years.

Things taken a sudden turn when Argentinian forces invade the Falkland Islands on the 2nd of April. Three days later, Britain launches a naval task force to engage the Argentine Navy and air force, with British troops eventually prevailing. Callaghan manages to play the role of war leader before a united House of Commons, and it's the first time in many years (and the last for many years to come) that the House manages to leave partisan bickering in its wake. That said, the campaign still rakes with many Labour back benchers, its most noteable critic being Tony Benn. (Michael Foot, however, pledged his support to Callaghan.)

In spite of the sudden upturn in Callaghan's popularity, in October Denis Healey suddenly resigns as Chancellor of the Exchequer after yet another rise in interest rates, which proves highly unpopular with public opinion. Healey’s resignation sparks a major reshuffle. The most noteable Cabinet appointments are Neil Kinnock and Roy Jenkins, who replaces Healey to start his second tenure as Chancellor. Foot’s demotion heralds the departure of the last openly socialist member in the Labour front benches.

1983
A Conservative Party, regarded by many voters as hopelessly divided in spite of Whitelaw's best efforts to convince them of the opposite (not to mention a Labour government with a poor economic record), is rejected at the polls. In May 1983 Whitelaw narrowly loses the election to Callaghan, but still manages to narrow the Labour majority down to 38 seats. Callaghan is forced to enter another coalition with the Liberal Party. All the same, James Callaghan stays on as Prime Minister for another term. In the post-election reshuffle, David Owen becomes Home Secretary while Roy Jenkins stays on as Chancellor.

1984
Whitelaw resigns as Tory leader, stating that his job was made impossible by the fractions within the Party. Michael Heseltine wins in a tighly fought leadership contest against Norman Tebbit, Geoffrey Howe, and Cecil Parkinson.

Meanwhile, Harold Macmillan's sad death sparks a byelection in South West Surrey. The winner is a young lawyer named Tony Blair, elected Conservative MP for the region...

[Michael Z]

1985
In a controversial speech during the Tory party conference in Brighton, Michael Heseltine calls for unity, stating that the internal disputes between the "junta" (and all-too-thinly veiled attack on Tebbit and Thatcher) and the rest of the party has "caused us to lose the biggest shoo-in election history". He also goes on to call the Callaghan administration “the most corrupt and incompetent excuse for a government this country has ever had the misfortune to find itself under". The speech is met with rousing applause and numerous standing ovations and heralds a new-found sense of optimism within the Conservative Party.

Tony Benn resigns as a Labour MP in protest against what he regards as the increasing rightward shift of Callaghan’s administration.

Heseltine promotes Tebbit and Parkinson to his shadow cabinet, as Shadow Trade Secretary and Shadow Health Sectretary respectively. Kenneth Clarke is named Shadow Education Secretary and Nigel Lawson Shadow Chancellor.

1986
Callaghan promotes ex-Chancellor Denis Healey to Deputy Leader of the Party and consequently Deputy Prime Minister; albeit a non-entity as a ministerial position, its symbolic value suggests a comeback of sorts for Healey after the nigh-disgrace surrounding his 1982 resignation.

It is also the year James Callaghan enters the history books as the Prime Minister to serve for the longest consecutive amount of time.

Roy Hattersley is promoted to Home Secretary.

1987
Due to a downturn in the economy, Roy Jenkins resigns as Chancellor and is replaced by John Smith. Neil Kinnock takes his place as Foreign Secretary.

1988
The Conservatives under Michael Heseltine beat Labour with a 50+ margin in the May election. Heseltine promises steady economic reform and a tougher approach towards the Soviet Union.

James Callaghan steps down after the election defeat, secure in the knowledge that he will go down in history not just as the first Labour leader to win three consecutive elections, but also as the Prime Minister to serve the longest consecutive time in office, twelve years. How will future historians judge his tenure as Prime Minister? Only time will tell.

The subsequent Labour leadership election sees many pretenders to the throne: Roy Hattersley, David Owen, Neil Kinnock, Michael Foot, Margaret Beckett and John Smith all throw their hats into the ring. One suprise late addition to the race is Denis Healey, who had withdrawn from front bench politics in 1982 and was only belatedly added as deputy Prime Minister two years ago.

In the leadership election, Neil Kinnock is the early front-runner. However, he loses momentun to David Owen. Michael Foot and Margaret Beckett drop out of the race at an early stage, with Foot supporting Hattersley and Beckett, surprisingly, supporting Healey.

Healey's candidacy is given a further boost by the support of Roy Jenkins and, even more surprisingly than Beckett, Tony Benn. In time, it turns into a two-horse race between Healey and Kinnock, both campaigns masterminded by two young upstarts on the Labour benches - Healey's Gordon Brown, Kinnock's by Peter Mandelson. As much as being a race between Healey and Kinnock, it also, perhaps more symbolically, is seen as a race between two figures seen as future leaders of the Party, ie. Brown and Mandelson.

After a long and tiresome campaign, the leadership election result looks thus:

1. Denis Healey
2. Neil Kinnock
3. John Smith
4. Roy Hattersley
5. David Owen

Healey seals what some regard as the most sensational political comeback in British post war history. In any case, the British political landscape has much changed after the 1988 election. Michael Heseltine now forms the government, with rising starts like Kenneth Clarke, John Major, and Kenneth Baker forming the backbone of his cabinet.

(From this point onwards the events are outlined rather basically, since Callaghan's political career is now at an end and this is simply to make up the numbers and speculate a little further as to what might have happened. That and I simply can't be bothered.)

1992
In the 1992 election, Heseltine’s Conservatives win against Healey's Labour.

Healey resigns and is replaced by Shadow Chancellor John Smith.

1993
Concerns are aired over Michael Heseltine’s health as he suffers a heart attack in Venice.

1994
John Smith passes away. In a tightly contested leadership election, Gordon Brown is chosen as new Labour Party leader.

1996
Gordon Brown's Labour enjoy a surprising, some might say sensational, election victory over the Conservatives. Peter Mandelson is, less surprisingly, omitted from the Cabinet.

1997
Worsening health issues force Heseltine to resign as leader of the Conservatives. After a contest between Malcolm Rifkind, John Major, Norman Lamont, and Kenneth Clarke, Clarke is narrowly selected as Party leader.

2000
Gordon Brown wins the election against Kenneth Clarke.

2003
Brown’s unwillingness to commit British troops to the US military campaign in Iraq causes unprecendented frictions in the transatlantic US-UK relationship not seen since Harold Wilson refused to send British troops to Vietnam.

2004
The Tories win the election in May. Gordon Brown announces his resignation as Labour leader, with a leadership contest opening up between John Reid, Charles Clarke, Patricia Hewitt, and Peter Mandelson, with Reid regarded as the firm favourite. After much tugging and pulling, the Labour Party decides that it wants yet another dour Scotsman as its leader.

With the Brown Revolution at an end, Kenneth Clarke and his ambitious Chancellor Tony Blair set themselves to bring Britain on to a more free market-orientated course...

List of Elections
1978   Labour (James Callaghan) bt Conservative (Margaret Thatcher)
1983   Labour (James Callaghan) bt Conservative (William Whitelaw)
1988   Conservative (Michael Heseltine) bt Labour (James Callaghan)
1992   Conservative (Michael Heseltine) bt Labour (Denis Healey)
1996   Labour (Gordon Brown) bt Conservative (Michael Heseltine)
2000   Labour (Gordon Brown) bt Conservative (Kenneth Clarke)
2004   Conservative (Kenneth Clarke) bt Labour (Gordon Brown)

List of Prime Ministers
1976 - 1988  James Callaghan (LAB)
1988 - 1996  Michael Heseltine (CON)
1996 - 2004  Gordon Brown (LAB)
2004 - Now   Kenneth Clarke (CON)

List of Labour leaders
1976 - 1988  James Callaghan
1988 - 1992  Denis Healey
1992 - 1994  John Smith
1994 - 2004  Gordon Brown
2004 - Now   John Reid

List of Conservative leaders
1975 - 1981  Margaret Thatcher
1981 - 1984  William Whitelaw
1984 - 1997  Michael Heseltine
1997 - Now   Kenneth Clarke

[Jake]

Very cool, though the end could be fleshed out a bit more Nice work

[Michael Z]

Thanks! I agree on the ending, I guess I just ran out of steam a little

[Rural Radical]

Very Good. Though Thatcher would have not lasted into 1979 as Tory Leader.