ROC Municipal and County Magistrate elections

[jaichind]

Early December Republic of China Municipal and County Magistrate elections.  Critical elections that will determine the distribution of grass roots power on ROC.  The DPP regime has been recently rocked by scandal after scandal.  Prez Chen's approval rating has fallen into the twenties.
The DPP had hoped to capture 10-12 of the 21 positions available but will not have to settle for 4-6.

County/City         Incumbent   In the fray                       Current status

Taiwan Province

Keelong County      KMT          TSU, KMT, PFP                 PFP Leaning/Solid
Taipei County         DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Solid
Taoyuan County     KMT           DPP, KMT                        KMT Landslide
Hsintsu County       KMT           DPP, KMT                        KMT Landslide
Hsintsu City            KMT           DPP, KMT                        KMT Landsilde
Miaoli County         PFP            DPP, KMT, KMT rebel       KMT Solid
Taichung County    KMT            DPP, KMT                        KMT Solid
Taichung City         KMT            DPP, KMT, PFP                KMT Landslide
Changhwa County  DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning
Nanto County          DPP          DPP, KMT, DPP rebel       KMT Leaning
Yunlin County         KMT           DPP, KMT                        Tossup
Jiayi County            DPP           DPP, KMT                        DPP Solid/Landslide
Jiayi City                 DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning
Tainan County        DPP           DPP, KMT                        DPP Leaning/Solid
Tainan City             DPP           DPP, KMT, TSU                DPP Leaning/Solid
Kaoshiung County  DPP           DPP, KMT                        DPP Solid
Pingdong County    DPP           DPP, KMT, NPB                KMT Leaning
Yilan County            DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning
Hualian County       KMT           DPP, KMT, PFP                 KMT Solid
Taidong County      PFP            DPP, KMT                        KMT Solid
PengHu County      KMT            DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning

Fujian County
JinMen County         NP            DPP, NP                          NP Landslide
LienJian County       PFP           DPP, PFP                        PFP Landslide

There are two general political blocks.

Pan-Blues - KMT, PFP (KMT ring wing spliter), NP (KMT pro-unification splinter), NPB (various pro-KMT independents)

Pan-Greens - DPP, TSU (KMT pro-independence spliter)

Both blocks tried to reach electoral adjustments.  Pan-Greens did a better job where only two spots have two Pan-Green candidates (one of them is a DPP rebel.)  Pan-Blues has five spots where two Pan-Blue candidates are running. 

Old KMT stronghold Yunlin County might fall to the DPP for the first time ever.  Likewise Jiayi county which KMT has never captured power might fall to the KMT.  Ditto for Yilan County (non-KMT since 1981) and Taipei County (non-KMT since 1989.)  If the results match the current trends this will be the largest pro-KMT (with allies) victory since the mid-1980s.  DPP is lucky this is a local election with local issues or their defeat might be even worse.  The DPP is trying to localize the election and the KMT is trying to nationalize it, given the non-performance of the DPP regime at the centre.  Whatever side achieves its goal will do better in this election. 

At stake are also block presidents and county/city council seats.  Usually KMT and pro-KMT independents sweeps these posts.  In 2001 the KMT+allies showed signs of decline as the DPP and PFP both advanced.  Most likely this election will reverse those trends and put the KMT the dominate party at the grass roots level. 

[jaichind]

Updated Status
 

County/City         Incumbent   In the fray                       Current status

Taiwan Province

Keelong County      KMT          TSU, KMT, PFP                 KMT Leaning/tossup
Taipei County         DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Solid
Taoyuan County     KMT           DPP, KMT                        KMT Landslide
Hsintsu County       KMT           DPP, KMT                        KMT Landslide
Hsintsu City            KMT           DPP, KMT                        KMT Landsilde
Miaoli County         PFP            DPP, KMT, KMT rebel       KMT Solid
Taichung County    KMT            DPP, KMT                        KMT Solid
Taichung City         KMT            DPP, KMT, PFP                KMT Landslide
Changhwa County  DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning
Nanto County          DPP          DPP, KMT, DPP rebel       KMT Leaning
Yunlin County         KMT           DPP, KMT                        DPP Leaning/Tossup
Jiayi County            DPP           DPP, KMT                        DPP Solid/Landslide
Jiayi City                 DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning
Tainan County        DPP           DPP, KMT                        DPP Leaning
Tainan City             DPP           DPP, KMT, TSU                DPP Leaning
Kaoshiung County  DPP           DPP, KMT                        DPP Solid
Pingdong County    DPP           DPP, KMT, NPB                KMT Leaning
Yilan County            DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning
Hualian County       KMT           DPP, KMT, PFP                 KMT Solid
Taidong County      PFP            DPP, KMT                        KMT Solid
PengHu County      KMT            DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning

Fujian Province

JinMen County         NP            DPP, NP, KMT rebel         NP Solid
LienJian County       PFP           DPP, PFP                        PFP Landslide
 
Changes

KeeLung County - PFP used to have an edge but recently KMT had made advances in the polls and has taken a small lead.  TSU running third despite the split in the Pan-Blue votes

Yunlin County - Shift toward DPP which has captured a small lead from a virtual tie. Anti-incumbent feelings in the KMT ruled county (for 50 years) should be an extra negative for this county which has been trending DPP last few years.

Tainan County - KMT is gaining groud due the recent DPP scandals at the central government level.
 
Tainan City - TSU is gaining ground and gives and opening for the KMT as tbe pan-Green vote is split.

JinMen County - KMT rebel gaining group on the pan-Blue NP candidate.  DPP has no chance here anyway.

Projections:

Pan-Blue    16
KMT           14
PFP             1
NP              1

Pan-Green  5
DPP            5
TSU            0


In 2001

Pan-Blue   12
KMT             8
PFP             3
NP               1

Pan-Green  9
DPP             9
TSU             0

[jaichind]

ROC VP Annette Lu, one of the more independently minded DPP politicans predicted that the DPP should capture 6 of 21 seats up for graps and it is possible that it could capture as much as 8-9 if it was lucky.

She identified as DPP victories

Jiayi County (should be DPP landslide)
Kaohiung County (should be soild DPP victory)
Tainan County (KMT catching up fast but DPP should win)
Tainan City (DPP TSU split puts this in danger but DPP should win)
Yunlin County (Leans slightly DPP but polls shows as neck-to-neck)
Changhwa County (Polls shows slight KMT lead but DPP win quite possible)

She identified as leaning DPP as

Pingdong County (Polls shows slight KMT lead but DPP win quite possible)
Taidong County (Should be KMT win but central government resources might buy the election for DPP for this poor county)
Taipei County (Polls show KMT lead but all DPP campaign energy is going into this largest county of Taiwan Province)

She identified as possible DPP upsets as

Yilan County (Slight KMT lead in the polls)
Taichung County (Significant KMT lead in polls)
Taichung City (Signifcant KMT lead but KMT PFP split might allow a DPP upset)
Miaoli County (Significant KMT lead but KMT rebels might allow a DPP upset)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If I had to guess now I still would say the DPP wins 5-6 of the 21 seats.  I might trust the polls too much and underestimate the ability of the DPP to throw money into this election at the last minute and turn the votes around.

 

[jaichind]

With polls shows a large % as undecided many has turned to the underground casinos odds to get an estiamte of how the candidates stacked up.  Followed is a summery of the current odds.

Taipei County: KMT by 40,000 (or 2.3% of the vote) (DPP won by 55,000 in 2001)
Yilan County: KMT by 4000 (or 2% of the vote) (DPP won by 8000 in 2001
Taoyuan County: KMT by 150,000 (or 19% of the vote) (KMT won by 90,000 in 2001)
Hsintsu City: KMT by 45,000 (or 27% of the vote) (KMT won by 21,000 in 2001)
Hsintsu County: KMT by 40,000 (or 19% of the vote) (KMT won by 15,000 in 2001)
Taichung City: KMT by 30,000 (or 7% of the vote) (KMT won by 35,000 in 2001)
Taichung County: KMT by 40,000 (or 6% of the vote) (KMT won by 35,000 in 2001)
Changhwa County: KMT by 10,000 (or 1.5% of the vote) (DPP won by 45,000 in 2001)
Yunlin County: Draw (KMT won by 75,000 in 2001 or 23%)
Jaiyi City: KMT by 3000 (or 2.5% of the vote) (DPP won by 26,000 in 2001)
Tainan County: DPP by 50,000 (or 9% of the vote) (DPP won by 40,000 in 2001)
Tainan City: DPP by 25,000 (or 7% of the vote) (DPP won by 19,000 in 2001)

[WMS]

Ah, the casinos are usually a good source of information when they make bets on elections. I believe Erc did much the same for the U.S.

[jaichind]

Final status. Vote is 12/3

County/City         Incumbent   In the fray                       Current status

Taiwan Province

Keelong County      KMT          TSU, KMT, PFP                 KMT Leaning/tossup
Taipei County         DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning
Taoyuan County     KMT           DPP, KMT                        KMT Landslide
Hsintsu County       KMT           DPP, KMT                        KMT Landslide
Hsintsu City            KMT           DPP, KMT                        KMT Landsilde
Miaoli County         PFP            DPP, KMT, KMT rebel       KMT Leaning
Taichung County    KMT            DPP, KMT                        KMT Solid
Taichung City         KMT            DPP, KMT, PFP                KMT Soild
Changhwa County  DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning/Tossup
Nanto County          DPP          DPP, KMT, DPP rebel       KMT Leaning
Yunlin County         KMT           DPP, KMT                        DPP Leaning/Tossup
Jiayi County            DPP           DPP, KMT                        DPP Solid/Landslide
Jiayi City                 DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning
Tainan County        DPP           DPP, KMT                        DPP Leaning
Tainan City             DPP           DPP, KMT, TSU                DPP Leaning
Kaoshiung County  DPP           DPP, KMT                        DPP Solid
Pingdong County    DPP           DPP, KMT, NPB                Tossup
Yilan County            DPP           DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning/Tossup
Hualian County       KMT           DPP, KMT, PFP                 KMT Leaning
Taidong County      PFP            DPP, KMT                        KMT Solid
PengHu County      KMT            DPP, KMT                        KMT Leaning

Fujian Province

JinMen County         NP            DPP, NP, KMT rebel         NP Leaning
LienJian County       PFP           DPP, PFP                        PFP Landslide

DPP made up a lot of ground last week as it threw in large amounts of resources into the campaign. It polls show a slight shift toward the DPP but the concensus that many of the undecides will break for DPP.  KMT will still win most of the battleground counties/cities but Yunan County and Pingdon County both of which are virtual ties in the polls will most likely break for DPP.
 
Projections 2005:

Pan-Blue    15
KMT           13
PFP             1
NP              1

Pan-Green  6
DPP            6
TSU            0



In 2001

Pan-Blue   12
KMT             8
PFP             3
NP               1

Pan-Green  9
DPP             9
TSU             0



In 1997

Pan-Blue      9
KMT              8
KMT rebel     1

Pan-Green  14
DPP             12
DPP rebel      2



In 1993

Pan-Blue      14
KMT              14

Pan-Green     7
DPP               6
DPP rebel      1

[jaichind]

Election took place on 12/3/2005.  Turnout was about 66% and ended in a landslide victory for the KMT.  Basically, the results in the 23 counties/cities matched exactly my projections exactly, 6 for Pan-Greens and 17 for Pan-Blues.  

County/City            Current status                     Result
                               (from 12/2 projection)
Taiwan Province

Keelong County      KMT Leaning/tossup           KMT 41 TSU 31 PFP 26
Taipei County         KMT Leaning                        KMT 55 DPP 44
Taoyuan County     KMT Landslide                     KMT 61 DPP 38
Hsintsu County       KMT Landslide                     KMT 67 DPP 33
Hsintsu City            KMT Landslide                     KMT 69 DPP 31
Miaoli County          KMT Leaning                       KMT 48 DPP 30 PFP rebel 19
Taichung County     KMT Solid                            KMT 59 DPP 39
Taichung City          KMT Soild                            KMT 58 DPP 39 PFP 2
Changhwa County  KMT Leaning/Tossup           KMT 55 DPP 41
Nanto County         KMT Leaning                       KMT 45 DPP 30 DPP rebel 22
Yunlin County          DPP Leaning/Tossup          DPP 53 KMT 45
Jiayi County            DPP Solid/Landslide            DPP 63 KMT 37
Jiayi City                  KMT Leaning                       KMT 55 DPP 45
Tainan County         DPP Leaning                       DPP 50 KMT 47
Tainan City              DPP Leaning                       DPP 46 KMT 41 TSU 13
Kaoshiung County   DPP Solid                            DPP 59 KMT 41
Pingdong County     Tossup                               DPP 46 KMT 42 NBF 10
Yilan County            KMT Leaning/Tossup           KMT 51 DPP 48
Hualian County        KMT Leaning                       KMT 43 PFP 25 DPP 20
Taidong County       KMT Solid                            KMT 59 DPP 38
PengHu County       KMT Leaning                        KMT 51 DPP 48

Fujian Province

JinMen County         NP Leaning                         NP 54 KMT rebel 44
LienJian County       PFP Landslide                     PFP 53 KMT rebel 45
 
Basically, I correctly guessed that of all the tossup counties/cities, Pingdong County and Yunlin County will go DPP but the rest all goes to the KMT.  Also I correctly guess that Tainan County and Tainan City will be very close.  I underestimated how strong the DPP would be in Yunlin County and how wide the margin the KMT win would be in Jiayi City and Changwha County.  

Thoughts on results

1) This is the largest  Pan-Blue victory since 1985 in the Municipal County Magistrate elections.   The largest county, Taipei County was won by DPP in 1989 1993 1997 and 2001 but recaptured by KMT.  So the scale of the relative victory for the Pan-Blues in 2005 relative to 1993 and 1989 is larger than the chart below.

Number of Municipal and County Magistrates won

Year          Pan-Blues        Pan-Greens
1989             16                         7
1993             16                         7
1997               9                       14
2001             13                       10
2005             17                         6

2) Despite the scale of this defeat, the Pan-Green vote was 43% of the total.  That is down from 46% in 2001 but only slightly below its total from 1993 and 1997.  Main reason for the Pan-Green defeat was the consolidation of the vote behind the KMT in this election.  The DPP kept its voter base despite non-performace of the DPP regime at the centre.  

3) In the City and County Council and the township head elections the Pan-Greens went from around 21% of the vote to 24% from 2001.  The Pan-Blues vote stayed flat, around 47%, as the independents vote declined.  Given the vote base of around 40% for the Pan-Greens there is still room to grow for the Pan-Greens in this area.  This bodes well for the Pan-Greens on the long term as it gives them greater grass roots organization and support as well as a better "farm league."  

4) DPP Prez Chen's already poor approval rating (25%) fell to 21% after the election.  The DPP has to think toward a post-Chen world for their comeback to become a reality.  Taiwan Independence should be thought of as dead after this election, at least in its current form.  Main battle going forward should be if unification can win as a political idea on the ROC.

[jaichind]

Final thoughts on this election.  The Pan-Blue victory was as much of a victory of vote consolidation as a swing toward the Pan-Blues.  In we calculate the total Pan-Blue and Pan-Green votes over the last three election cycles for ROC Municipal and County Magistrate elections.  We get

              Pan-Blue Vote  Pan-Green Vote  Pan-Blue Seats  Pan-Green Seats
1997            51.4%                46.1%                   9                       14
2001            50.1%                47.9%                 13                       10
2005            54.2%                44.2%                 17                         6

Note that despite the swing toward the Pan-Greens in 2001 they still ended up losing 4 seats.  This can be explained by better Pan-Blue vote consolidation in 2001 relative to 1997.

I wil define effective vote as total (Pan-Blue or Pan-Green) vote for each camp over each election area (23 of them) for the largest vote-getter for each camp in said area.  All other votes for the same camp are effectively wasted.  Looking at the effective vote over the three cycles gives us a better picture.

                  Total Vote             Effective Vote                Seats
              Blue          Green      Blue      Green              Blue     Green
1997     51.4%       46.1%     40.2%     44.0%              9         14
2001     50.1%       47.9%     46.3%     45.4%            13         10
2005     54.2%       44.2%     51.9%     43.0%            17           6

The results makes much more sense now if one looks at effective vote.  The Pan-Green effective vote has stayed constant while the Pan-Blue increased it consolidation over the last two cycles and resulted in gains each time.  In fact that the Pan-Greens managed 6 seats this time is due to good luck given the size of the swing and Pan-Blue consolidation.  3 of its victories were close and it could have easily lost them.