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March 29, 2024, 08:57:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
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Alcon
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« Reply #25 on: November 07, 2005, 08:06:39 PM »

It may well be the "libertarian" factor that caused these counties to shift.  Has anyone also thought about the collapse of the Nader vote?  Nader got about 6% in Montana in 2000, but only 1% in 2004. Kerry's 39% is almost exactly that much pickup from Gore's 33%.  Idaho has shifts that I think look similar.

If this is evidence of a Democratic swing, it's happening too slowly to make a difference, at least as far as Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas and Montana are concerned.  Bush did better in Montana both times than Nixon did in 1972.  Ditto Idaho.  There may be geographical shifts in which counties vote more Democrat, but it doesn't seem to be tilting the overall vote.

Welcome!  Smiley

Very nice first post.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #26 on: November 10, 2005, 02:33:17 AM »

Yeah, given the methodology that's not impossible.
What do the Methodist have to do with it?
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