Rural Northwest

[Alcon]

My guess would be conservative libertarians dissatisfied with Bush's government size increases.  That is at least what my friends in Montana tell me, although hope springs eternal for them.

[Alcon]

The timber thing is actually a pretty interesting theory.  The second-biggest swing in Washington, Okanogan County, has two big industries:  timber and transporting timber to Canada.

Good theory.

[Alcon]

The southern takeover of what?  A lot of people in this area are deeply religious.  Generally, the only Democratic voters are a few libertarians that dislike Bush and economic voters.

[Alcon]

The southern takeover of what?  A lot of people in this area are deeply religious.  Generally, the only Democratic voters are a few libertarians that dislike Bush and economic voters.

I was under the impression that there are very few Evanglicals in this part of the country. Please correct me if this is not the case.

Evangelical, no, but religious persons - whether or not they even attend church.

No part of Washington has a very significant evangelical population.

[Alcon]

The southern takeover of what?  A lot of people in this area are deeply religious.  Generally, the only Democratic voters are a few libertarians that dislike Bush and economic voters.

I was under the impression that there are very few Evanglicals in this part of the country. Please correct me if this is not the case.

Evangelical, no, but religious persons - whether or not they even attend church.

No part of Washington has a very significant evangelical population.

I know right across the border in the Fraser Valley of BC is called Canada's Bible Belt. Is the area around Blaine, WA similar?

Not so much Blaine, but the dairy farming area around Lynden is.  Blaine voted Kerry.  Lynden, on the other hand, gave over 75% of the vote to Bush.  The Washington "Bible Belt" extends into the farming towns of Custer (~53%), Delta (~75%), Everson (63%), Ferndale (~55%), Nooksack (~65%), and Ten Mile (~63%).  The Bible Belt does not extend outside of Whatcom County, and is pretty much limited to the centre-north part of the county.  It's what keeps the county only leaning Democratic on the local level.  Lynden is significant in that it has a large Dutch population (as does Custer, but strangely not Nooksack.)

As with most of the west slope of the Cascade Mountains, the rural mountain area in the east of Whatcom County is Democratic.  God knows why.

[Alcon]

Solidly Bush, sure.

But counties that are mostly rural and very white giving 40% of their vote to Kerry isn't that bad.

I was thinking that perhaps the Native American vote helped swing Okanogan County?

Church-goers are a minority in Eastern Washington, too! Infact, according to the ARDA, there are only two counties in the entire state where the majority of the population is a member of some domination.

Where can I find this sexy ARDA information?

[Alcon]

Solidly Bush, sure.

But counties that are mostly rural and very white giving 40% of their vote to Kerry isn't that bad.

I was thinking that perhaps the Native American vote helped swing Okanogan County?

Church-goers are a minority in Eastern Washington, too! Infact, according to the ARDA, there are only two counties in the entire state where the majority of the population is a member of some domination.

Where can I find this sexy ARDA information?

http://thearda.com/

I already made a map of it.

Show me or I will kill Ron Sims.

Edit: Although I'm not sure I buy that few people being religious...

[Alcon]

It may well be the "libertarian" factor that caused these counties to shift.  Has anyone also thought about the collapse of the Nader vote?  Nader got about 6% in Montana in 2000, but only 1% in 2004. Kerry's 39% is almost exactly that much pickup from Gore's 33%.  Idaho has shifts that I think look similar.

If this is evidence of a Democratic swing, it's happening too slowly to make a difference, at least as far as Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas and Montana are concerned.  Bush did better in Montana both times than Nixon did in 1972.  Ditto Idaho.  There may be geographical shifts in which counties vote more Democrat, but it doesn't seem to be tilting the overall vote.

Welcome! 

Very nice first post.