Now that Conner is going to go away, what about Stevens?

[Richard]

Suppose Alito is confirmed before year-end.  We now have a supreme court that looks like:

Stevens
Souter
Bryer
Ginsberg
Kennedy

vs

Alito
Thomas
Scalia
Roberts


Suppose Stevens retire.  I'm not a racist or sexist, so I would consider all candidates without those attributes.  I do believe that the most prudent choice to replace Stevens would be Janice Rogers-Brown, not Luttig.  She will bring the court back to where it should be.

[Virginian87]

Stevens is not going to retire.  He's in better shape than some of the other justices even though he's in his mid-80s.  He'll stay until he dies.

Oh, and about your post:

You can't count Kennedy as a member of the liberal bloc.  He's a swing voter like O'Connor was, but he sides more often with the conservative side of the court.  So basically, having Alito on the court will give (in my opinion) an advantage to the conservatives.  This is why the nomination of Alito is so important.

[Giant Saguaro]

Some people have conjectured that Kennedy will drift leftward, but that's just speculation, which could actually be, if it happens, just Kennedy staying where he is while the court moves rightward. I think, assuming Roberts is a moderately conservative judge, Kennedy stays in the middle because now he is the decisive swing vote. Before it was he and O'Connor, now there will be just one swing vote - again, assuming Roberts sides with conservatives more than liberals.

As to retirements, I don't see any of the liberals retiring, not with Bush in and a GOP majority or a near tie in the Senate. They'll hang on till they die or are too ill to continue. Kennedy is the most likely to retire, I think. I could be wrong, though. Kennedy likes to travel, he's aging, and I don't necessarily think he's bound by any ideology that would keep him there imposing it until he dies.

[ATFFL]

Stevens is not going to retire.  He's in better shape than some of the other justices even though he's in his mid-80s.  He'll stay until he dies.

Oh, and about your post:

You can't count Kennedy as a member of the liberal bloc.  He's a swing voter like O'Connor was, but he sides more often with the conservative side of the court.  So basically, having Alito on the court will give (in my opinion) an advantage to the conservatives.  This is why the nomination of Alito is so important.

On top of that, Roberts has a god history of getting Kennedy to side with him during his appearances before the Court.

[Emsworth]

I doubt that we will be seeing any further changes during President Bush's term. However, if a Republican wins in 2008, then he will probably have an opportunity to dramatically alter the make-up of the Court. Stevens is already 85; Ginsburg is only 72, but is still undergoing treatment for cancer. It is quite unlikely that both of them, or even either of them, will remain on the bench for another eight years.

[A18]

At 85, your health can begin to decline very rapidly.

[Moooooo]

I doubt that we will be seeing any further changes during President Bush's term. However, if a Republican wins in 2008, then they will probably have an opportunity to dramatically alter the make-up of the Court. Stevens is already 85; Ginsburg is only 72, but is still undergoing treatment for cancer. It is quite unlikely that both of them, or even either of them, will remain on the bench for another eight years.

I agree.  2008 will be big.  Stevens is in great health for his age though, he isnt going anywhere.

[Moooooo]

At 85, your health can begin to decline very rapidly.

Good point.  My GF's grandmother died a couple months ago at the age of 88.  No previous health conditions.  Never smoked, never drank, and she exercised regularly.  At that age I guess you never know.

[TheresNoMoney]

Kennedy is more conservative than liberal.

[A18]

He's definitely more liberal than O'Connor, who is usually called a 'moderate.'

[Virginian87]

He's definitely more liberal than O'Connor, who is usually called a 'moderate.'

Who, Kennedy or Stevens?  I don't believe Kennedy is more liberal than O'Connor.  I saw him as moderate/slightly conservative at best.

[A18]

Kennedy. Kelo v. New London and Gonzales v. Raich are two perfect examples.

[AuH2O]

Who should replace Stevens depends heavily on timing. Some of the possible choices will be getting too old... Brown is already 57 and probably would never get picked due to controversy anyway. Diane Sykes is very likely.

Some possible candidates for future seats (ethnicity) other than the current crop:

Viet Dinh, 37 (asian)
Lavenski Smith, 45 (black)
Cecilia Altonaga, 43 (hispanic)
Steven Colloton, 42 (white)
Jeffrey Sutton, 45 (white)
William Pryor, 43 (white)
Raoul Cantero, 45 (hispanic)
Paul Clement, 41 (white)
John Yoo, 38 (asian)


I particularly like Dinh, Colloton, and Clement.

[Jake]

I think Bush should make it a priority to put Dinh and Yoo on an influential Circuit Court at sometime before his term ends. They are both great candidates for any appointment ten years down the road.

[Sam Spade]

If Stevens were to go right now, the most likely pick other than a woman or a minority would probably be McConnell.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Anyone who calls Kennedy or O'Connor a liberal is an idiot. They are very partisan Republicans who just don't happen to be extreme right-wing on all issues.

[The Duke]

Viet Dinh, 37 (asian)
William Pryor, 43 (white)
Raoul Cantero, 45 (hispanic)
John Yoo, 38 (asian)

Be still, my beating heart.

[Erc]

I hope Stevens dies in the next four years.

Normally, I don't say things like that about people--but Stevens is by far the worst Justice on the court and I'd rather have a second Ginsburg than Stevens on the court.

[WalterMitty]

stevens is a great justice.  he is actually commited to civil rights and civil liberties.

[A18]

stevens is a great justice.  he is actually commited to civil rights and civil liberties.

Change your avatar to Democrat right now.

[MODU]

If Alito's confirmation gets ugly, Luttig can kiss his hopes of being on the Supreme Court goodbye.  He's far more conservative than Alito.  Brown might get through, but she too is a lightning rod.  I say someone from a lower court gets the nomination.

[DanielX]

stevens is a great justice.  he is actually commited to civil rights and civil liberties.

Change your avatar to Democrat right now.

Maybe we should have an 'avatar switching day', and have all the DINOs become Republicans and the RINOs become Democrats .

[opebo]

stevens is a great justice.  he is actually commited to civil rights and civil liberties.

Change your avatar to Democrat right now.

He really should.  WalterMitty is a very decent fellow - better than a lot of the theocrats we have calling themselves Democrats (emsworth, prude caldwell, Ebowed, etc.).

[Wakie]

stevens is a great justice.  he is actually commited to civil rights and civil liberties.

Change your avatar to Democrat right now.

So much for that claim of a "big tent".

[Democratic Hawk]

Stevens is not going to retire.  He's in better shape than some of the other justices even though he's in his mid-80s.  He'll stay until he dies.

Yes, Stevens has years in him yet

And as for replacing a retiring Justice with Janice Rogers Brown. No way, she is a wing nut

Dave