How many votes will Alito get for confirmation?

[A18]

Well?

[riceowl]

I don't think 0 democrats will vote for him, and if some do then at least 10 will follow.  At the same time, I don't think Chafee will vote to confirm, but he will be the only Rep not to.

So 60-65.

[MasterJedi]

Probably about 60-65. (I voted 60).

[MODU]

I say 75.  He was voted on almost unanimously last time, so take away a few votes for the hard leftists, and we'll be somewhere in the 70s.

[Lincoln Republican]

At least 70

[Jake]

64, I voted 60

[Emsworth]

Between 65 and 70.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

70

[Dave from Michigan]

65

all republicans and ten democrats

[Frodo]

He will most definitely not get anywhere near 75 votes, the margin that John Roberts, Jr. got when he was up for confirmation.  The most likely total will probably be between 55 and 60, being lucky if he gets upwards of 65 senators.  With President Bush as weak as he is, Democrats have little or no incentive to make his life easier by helping to confirm Alito.  Alito will likely pass only with a bare handful or two of Democrats in states Bush won last year joining their Republican colleagues.  But he will ultimately be confirmed.     

[Dave from Michigan]

what democrats do you think will join the republicans

[Frodo]

what democrats do you think will join the republicans

Assuming Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Olympia Snow and Susan Collins of Maine vote against Alito's confirmation, I am thinking Bill Nelson of Florida, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Max Baucus of Montana, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana would likely vote for Alito next year. 

[Dave from Michigan]

what democrats do you think will join the republicans

Assuming Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Olympia Snow and Susan Collins of Maine vote against Alito's confirmation, I am thinking Bill Nelson of Florida, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Max Baucus of Montana, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana would likely vote for Alito next year. 

I think Specter,Snow, and Collins will vote yes  Chafee is maybe

[J. J.]

Between 65 and 70.

Ditto

[© tweed]

67...about 10 less than John Roberts.

[dazzleman]

about 60

[nini2287]

I think around 70-71.  I don't think it will differ that much from Roberts

[memphis]

Will there be a filibuster? If so, will it be successful?

[The Dowager Mod]

I don't think the dems will really fight that hard on this.

[True Democrat]

what democrats do you think will join the republicans

Assuming Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Olympia Snow and Susan Collins of Maine vote against Alito's confirmation, I am thinking Bill Nelson of Florida, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Max Baucus of Montana, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana would likely vote for Alito next year. 

Specte will vote Aye, as will Snowe.  Collins probably will, though I think she's retiring in 2008, which could play some effect on her vote.  Chaffee is iffy.  For the Democrats, all of those Democrats will probably vote for Roberts, though I have a feeling either Conrad or Dorgan will vote against (whichever one has the latests election.)  I would add Bayh to that list if he weren't running for President.  Salazar is another possibility for someone who could vote for confirmation.

[Democratic Hawk]

At a guess, 65 to 70 - I voted 65. The Democrats would be insane to fillibuster him because of that marital notification for abortion ruling

Democrats would just show themselves to be totally out of touch with the electorate and rightly so. A husband should be notified (it takes two to conceive a child). Furthermore, it's just common courtesy

Of course, if something about Alito emerges, which makes him totally unsuitable for the position of Associative Justice, then the Democrats would be right to mount a fillibuster

The Democrats are on an upward swing and they'd be insane to jeopardise it by opposing Alito just for the hell of it

Dave

[Blue Rectangle]

It's early, but I'm thinking 60-65.  It could be as high as 70 if he's good in the hearings, but not lower than 60 if there's a lot of controversy.

[The Vorlon]

YEAs ---60

Alexander (R-TN)
Allard (R-CO)
Allen (R-VA)
Baucus (D-MT)
Bennett (R-UT)

Bingaman (D-NM)
Bond (R-MO)
Brownback (R-KS)
Bunning (R-KY)
Burns (R-MT)

Burr (R-NC)
Chambliss (R-GA)
Coburn (R-OK)
Cochran (R-MS)
Coleman (R-MN)

Collins (R-ME)
Conrad (D-ND)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Craig (R-ID)
Crapo (R-ID)

DeMint (R-SC)
DeWine (R-OH)
Dole (R-NC)
Domenici (R-NM)
Dorgan (D-ND)

Ensign (R-NV)
Enzi (R-WY)
Frist (R-TN)
Graham (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)

Gregg (R-NH)
Hagel (R-NE)
Hatch (R-UT)
Hutchison (R-TX)
Inhofe (R-OK)

Isakson (R-GA)
Johnson (D-SD)
Kohl (D-WI)
Kyl (R-AZ)
Lieberman (D-CT)

Lott (R-MS)
Lugar (R-IN)
Martinez (R-FL)
McCain (R-AZ)
McConnell (R-KY)

Murkowski (R-AK)
Roberts (R-KS)
Santorum (R-PA)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)

Smith (R-OR)
Snowe (R-ME)
Stevens (R-AK)
Sununu (R-NH)
Talent (R-MO)

Thomas (R-WY)
Thune (R-SD)
Vitter (R-LA)
Voinovich (R-OH)
Warner (R-VA)

NAYs --- 40

Akaka (D-HI)
Bayh (D-IN)
Biden (D-DE)
Boxer (D-CA)
Cantwell (D-WA)

Clinton (D-NY)
Corzine (D-NJ)
Dayton (D-MN)
Durbin (D-IL)
Feinstein (D-CA)

Harkin (D-IA)
Inouye (D-HI)
Kennedy (D-MA)
Kerry (D-MA)
Lautenberg (D-NJ)

Mikulski (D-MD)
Carper (D-DE)
Chafee (R-RI)
Dodd (D-CT)
Jeffords (I-VT)

Specter (R-PA)
Rockefeller (D-WV)
Salazar (D-CO)
Byrd (D-WV)
Feingold (D-WI)

Landrieu (D-LA)
Leahy (D-VT)
Levin (D-MI)
Wyden (D-OR)
Lincoln (D-AR)

Pryor (D-AR)
Murray (D-WA)
Nelson (D-FL)
Nelson (D-NE)
Obama (D-IL)

Reed (D-RI)
Reid (D-NV)
Sarbanes (D-MD)
Schumer (D-NY)
Stabenow (D-MI)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL, Lieberman will vote no.

[Sam Spade]

Roughly 65, though it could be slightly more or less than this.

Vorlon, no way Chafee votes no with the amount of Italian Catholics in RI, or Ben Nelson in Nebraska either.