VA-Gov: SUSA last poll before election.

[Moooooo]

SUSA:

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR
Kaine-D 52%
Kilgore-R 43%
Potts-I 3%


Unless Kaine won every undecided in the state...

[TheresNoMoney]

I am still expecting a Kilgore victory by 2-3%.

[WalterMitty]

kaine wins comfortably.

im still predicting nj to be closer than the va.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something I like about SUSA is the way they are happy to post all the internal/breakdown stuff... an interesting wee fact is in the regional stuff; neither candidate is blowing tuther guy out of the water anywhere (if you factor in the sample sizes, MoE and all that stuff) with the exception of NOVA where Kaine is topping 2/3rd of the vote.

[© tweed]

It's really, really hard for me to maintain my belief that Kilgore will win.

[Flying Dog]

Just one more day to go. It looks like Kaine peaked at the right time. Although Kilgore will probably win, dashing my hopes to the ground.

[Democratic Hawk]

A nine-point lead for Kaine, while pleasing, is worrying, I wouldn't like to see Virginia Democrats getting complacent thinking their guy has it 'in the bag'. That way, Kilgore wins

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

It's really, really hard for me to maintain my belief that Kilgore will win.

A bit of faith in your own party's candidate wouldn't go a miss

Dave

[Flying Dog]

Im starting to feel the way I felt on november 1 2004. A gut feeling of a onimous democrat defeat.

[Moooooo]

Ive been reading at other sites that weekend polls tend to favor Democrats.  I have no idea why, but that is what people are saying.  Also there was 2 huge football games this weekend in VA, so some are suggesting Republicans werent home to take the calls.

[Flying Dog]

Ive been reading at other sites that weekend polls tend to favor Democrats.  I have no idea why, but that is what people are saying.  Also there was 2 huge football games this weekend in VA, so some are suggesting Republicans werent home to take the calls.

Dems go to football games to ya know.

[Moooooo]

Something I like about SUSA is the way they are happy to post all the internal/breakdown stuff... an interesting wee fact is in the regional stuff; neither candidate is blowing tuther guy out of the water anywhere (if you factor in the sample sizes, MoE and all that stuff) with the exception of NOVA where Kaine is topping 2/3rd of the vote.

47% - 47% in rural areas.  Does that make sense?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something I like about SUSA is the way they are happy to post all the internal/breakdown stuff... an interesting wee fact is in the regional stuff; neither candidate is blowing tuther guy out of the water anywhere (if you factor in the sample sizes, MoE and all that stuff) with the exception of NOVA where Kaine is topping 2/3rd of the vote.

47% - 47% in rural areas.  Does that make sense?

Depends how you define "rural", but the number doesn't strike me as odd. This is the 2001 map:



O/c Kaine won't come close to doing as well as that in rural areas, but that's not really the point.
Election is still very much in the air methinks.

[Defarge]

No, that's completely wrong.  I have no faith in this poll.

[Sam Spade]

No, that's completely wrong.  I have no faith in this poll.

The internals look weird. (to put it mildly)

Still, it's another poll.  My prediction will be up within the hour.

[CARLHAYDEN]

SUSA:

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR
Kaine-D 52%
Kilgore-R 43%
Potts-I 3%


Unless Kaine won every undecided in the state...

This is another example of SUSA going seriously wacky.

Kaine is HIGHLY unlikely to get more that 48% of the vote, and Kilgore is HIGHLY unlikely to get less than 45% of the vote.

Potts is likely to get between 2% to 5% of the vote.

[Sam Spade]

SUSA released another version of this poll:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportUC.aspx?g=8c8e6677-20c6-4eda-a910-f9db660e687b

Kaine 50%
Kilgore 45%
Potts 3%

The first one (nickshepDEM posted) detailed Friday, Saturday and Sunday rolling averages.

This one is Saturday, Sunday, Monday rolling averages.

Survey USA lists this interesting caveat in the link above:

UNUSUAL VOLATILITY IN VA AS VOTERS GO TO BED ON ELECTION EVE:

Interviews in the Virginia governor's race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor's Contest.

This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore.

However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7. When interviews from the most recent 3 days -- Saturday, Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, Kaine's lead shrinks now to 5 points. When interviews from just the past two days -- Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, the contest is closer yet.

When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data.

For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%. A closer outcome still is possible.
I am still not confident in my prediction for good reason. 

And I thought New Jersey would be the hard race to predict exactly. 

[Politico]

The race is very close, and I bet it's closer than this poll would lead one to believe at first sight (After all, the MoE is nearly 4%, and we're talking about "likely voters")

The pessimist in me says that Kilgore will probably win, and Republicans will continue to repeat their ridiculous "the only poll that matters is the one on election day" mantra.

I have this terrible feeling that Republicans are going to win both gubernatorial elections tomorrow, and Arnold will have something to celebrate about tomorrow night too...

[The Duke]

SUSA has readjusted their final poll to Kaine +5% after Kilgore drew to dead even in their last 24 hours fo polling.  RCP has the new data up.

[Democratic Hawk]

This race 'is as tight as a knat's chuff'

Dave

[Blank Slate]

This race 'is as tight as a knat's chuff'

Dave

I just love the Brits and their commentary.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I thought Warner was VA governor and he just won a few years ago?

[Democratic Hawk]

I thought Warner was VA governor and he just won a few years ago?

Warner was elected in 2001 but he is not permitted to run for a second consecutive term. In Virginia, an incumbent governor can't succeed himself. Insane, I know. Warner would have coasted to re-election

Dave

[ATFFL]

I thought Warner was VA governor and he just won a few years ago?

Warner was elected in 2001 but he is not permitted to run for a second consecutive term. In Virginia, an incumbent governor can't succeed himself. Insane, I know. Warner would have coasted to re-election

Dave

No, he wouldn't have.  He could have, but he wouldn't have.  If he has Presidential ambitions, and I suspect he does, he would have campaigned actively to get hsi name in as many newspapers as possible.  He would want as many headlines as he could grab.  Winning huge in VA would do it.

[Democratic Hawk]

This race 'is as tight as a knat's chuff'

Dave

I just love the Brits and their commentary.

Or tight as a gnat's chuff even! Anyway, as it turns the race was not so tight after all. 5.5% is a decent enough margin of victory

Dave