*Official Election 2005 Results Thread*

[Gabu]

AuH2O posted that the Democrats got whupped in the Virginia state legislature.  Am I missing something, or was he just incorrect?

He said that, but then he corrected himself when he realized that the Democrats were actually up one seat.

[socaldem]

AuH2O posted that the Democrats got whupped in the Virginia state legislature.  Am I missing something, or was he just incorrect?

Well, given that there was a Democratic breeze strong enough to give Leslie Byrne over 49% of the vote--significantly more than Jerry Kilgore received, Democrats did not pick up as many seats as might have been hoped.  They did lose a number of northern virginia squeakers (though they blew away hated GOP incumbent Black and right-wing loony candidate Craddick).  While Dems made gains in Northern Virginia, they lost a couple outstate seats--seeing Southwest VA incumbent Keister lose out in the only region in which Kilgore overperformed.

[Vasall des Midas]

IIRC he'd cursorily looked at results, noticed that Reps won most close races, and took it from there. He retracted it a couple of posts later. Of course the real reason is that Virginia's legislature is a Republican gerrymander.

[jimrtex]

Edit: Left some stuff in from previous message.

As of 4:07 Wednesday

Margin McDonnell +353

Changes:

McDonnell +1 (Fluvanna +1)
Deeds       -5  (Louisa -2; Rockbridge -3)
Write-In    +1 (Albermarles +1)

[Vasall des Midas]

What's going on in Fluvanna County?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

What's going on in Fluvanna County?

I assume someone transposed digits or hit the wrong key while entering the data for some precinct.  It happens, I suppose.

[jimrtex]

What's going on in Fluvanna County?

The -54 votes was actually yesterday's episode that didn't get edited out.  Today was just the extra vote for McDonnell.

[jimrtex]

As of 5:27 Wednesday

Margin McDonnell +352

Changes (since 4:07)

All in Tazewell county
McDonnell  0
Deeds       +1
Write-In    +3

[jimrtex]

As of 3:12 Thursday

Margin McDonnell +340

Changes (since Wednesday 5)

McDonnell  -10 (Fauquier -10)
Deeds        +1 (Nottoway +1, Tazewell -1, Radford city +1)
Write-in      +1 (Suffolk city +1)

My understanding is that the State Board of Elections does their canvass on November 28, after which Deeds has 10 days to file for a recount.

The recount is conducted by a recount court consisting of the chief judge of the Circuit Court of the City of Richmond (because it is a statewide election), and two judges appointed by the Chief Justice of Virginia.  It appears that the general intent is that recounts would be conducted in each locality under oversight of the recount court, but if they found it necessary they could get everything trucked down to Richmond. 

Voter eligiblity is not an issue in a recount.  Optical scan and punch card ballots are not hand counted unless they are write-ins, overvotes, undervotes, or write-ins.  There are currently 1800 write-in votes.  Write-in votes are ordinarily not tabulated in Virginia unless over 5% of all votes, or more than apparent winner, so there might be write-in votes for Deeds and McDonnell.

A contest of the election would be conducted by the General Assembly, with a final determination made by a joint session.

[jimrtex]

As of 4:47 Friday

Margin McDonnell +345

Changes (since Thursday 3:23)

McDonnell  +2 (Fauquier +4, Carroll -2)
Deeds        -2  (Carroll -2)
Write-in     +1 (Fauquier +1)

Edited to add 1 Write-in vote.

[jimrtex]

Northern Mariana Islands Governor

Count with off-island absentee votes counted:

Governor&Lt Governor    Party        E-Day Abs  Total Pct
Fitial & Villagomez     Covenant     3497  312  3809 28.1%
Hofschneider & Apatang  Independent  3371  339  3710 27.3%
Babauta & Benevente     Republican   3228  382  3610 26.6%
Tenorio & Santos        Democrat     2256  186  2442 18.0%

The Covenant party appears to be a reform offshoot of the Republican Party.  For example, the campaign site of Benigno Fitial includes among his political activities the Republican Party and Bush for President  in addition to founder of the Covenant Party.  Heinz Hofschneider, the independent gubernatorial candidate is a Republican member of legislature.

[Blank Slate]

Northern Mariana Islands Governor

Count with off-island absentee votes counted:

Governor&Lt Governor    Party        E-Day Abs  Total Pct
Fitial & Villagomez     Covenant     3497  312  3809 28.1%
Hofschneider & Apatang  Independent  3371  339  3710 27.3%
Babauta & Benevente     Republican   3228  382  3610 26.6%
Tenorio & Santos        Democrat     2256  186  2442 18.0%

The Covenant party appears to be a reform offshoot of the Republican Party.  For example, the campaign site of Benigno Fitial includes among his political activities the Republican Party and Bush for President  in addition to founder of the Covenant Party.  Heinz Hofschneider, the independent gubernatorial candidate is a Republican member of legislature.

I always saw Republicans as being in a Covenant.     Shades of "Rosemary's Baby".   Tannis anyone?    

[jimrtex]

I always saw Republicans as being in a Covenant. 

I believe the agreement defining the relationship between the US and the CNMI is called a Covenant.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Why is this area so Republican?

[socaldem]

As of 4:47 Friday

Margin McDonnell +345

Changes (since Thursday 3:23)

McDonnell  +2 (Fauquier +4, Carroll -2)
Deeds        -2  (Carroll -2)
Write-in     +1 (Fauquier +1)

Edited to add 1 Write-in vote.

I'm addicted to watching these election returns trickle in...

McDonnell 970,883 49.96
Deeds       970,561 49.95
Write ins     1,801

McDonnell is now up +322...

[Blank Slate]

The Virginia Attorney General's race/count as of 8:47 am this morning (Monday, November 21, 2005):

McDonnell + 322

McDonnell (R)                  970,883   49.96%
Deeds (D)                        970,561   49.95%
write-ins                              1801        .09%

This is still not the final or the recount that may be expected to start next week if this stays close. 

[Gabu]

Where would this topic have been without the VA Attorney-General race?

[Frodo]

The Virginia Attorney General's race has now been certified (pending a recount), with Republican Del. Bob McDonnell as the winner by a margin of 323 votes:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

McDonnell wins Va. vote, pending recount

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

RICHMOND, Va. -- The closest statewide election in modern Virginia history headed for a recount Monday after Republican Bob McDonnell was certified as the winner of the attorney general's race by 323 votes out of more than 1.9 million cast.

Democrat Creigh Deeds, a state senator, said he will petition for a recount Tuesday in Richmond Circuit Court. A three-judge panel will preside over the recount, which is expected to take at least until mid-December.

Deeds had 970,563 votes to 970,886 for McDonnell in the Nov. 8 balloting, according to the State Board of Elections.

source

[Democratic Hawk]

The Virginia Attorney General's race has now been certified (pending a recount), with Republican Del. Bob McDonnell as the winner by a margin of 323 votes

Heartbreakingly close. What's the chances of it going the other way?

Dave

[jimrtex]

Certified Result

Margin McDonnell +323

Changes (since November 18)

Chesapeake city (+89)
   +33 McDonnell
   +56 Deeds

Suffolk city (+5)
   +3 McDonnell
   +2 Deeds

[jimrtex]

Heartbreakingly close. What's the chances of it going the other way?

The article mentioned the previous statewide recount when Doug Wilder was elected governor.  In that case, 113 votes were trimmed off a 7000 vote margin.

It might be possible that because of the closeness of the election that the recount will be more closely contested (eg in the previous recount, even if 50 times as many votes were found, Wilder would have won).

Virginia election law provides that machine-countable ballots be recounted by machine, with only overvotes, undervotes, and write-in ballots visually examined.  There are at least 40,000 undervotes (difference between Governor's race and AG race), but many of those are likely to be deliberate.  There are also 1801 write-in ballots (which have not been counted other than as being write-ins).

Typically, recovered undervotes (ballots where a voter choice is determinable, break pretty much the same way as regular ballots.  But this rule of thumb works because of the typical margins of close elections.  If there is a 1% margin in an election 50.5% to 49.5%, and another 1% of ballots are added that split 40-60, the margin of victory is only cut to 50.4% to 49.6%.  But with the margin under 0.02%, Deeds would only need about 1/10 of 1% all votes cast splitting 60-40 in his favor.  1/10 of 1%, is around 2000 ballots, or about 5% of the undervotes, or slightly more than the total number of write-ins.

[jimrtex]

The Virginia State Board of Elections has added some files to their web site apparently related to the impending AG recount.  I assume these will be treated as recommendations to the recount court, rather than necessarily binding.

Updated Recount Standards

Lots of examples of valid/invalid ballot markings.  One curiousity is that a write-in vote for a candidate on the ballot is not considered valid.

Virginia Recount & Handcount Ballot Examples (Appendix A to Recount Standards)

[Joe Republic]

I don't know if somebody has already posted this somewhere, but it seems the NJ GOP website has pulled a 'Dewey defeats Truman', but forgotten to rectify it.

http://www.njgop.org/

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I don't know if somebody has already posted this somewhere, but it seems the NJ GOP website has pulled a 'Dewey defeats Truman', but forgotten to rectify it.

http://www.njgop.org/

LOL!

[© Tweed the Younger]

Who ended up winning McDonnell v. Deeds?