azerbaijan elections

[WalterMitty]

ive become somewhat interested in the situation in this country.

does anyone here have a good understanding of the situation that coould provide a tutorial?

[WMS]

The deciding votes will be cast by the Azerbaijani security forces.


OK, seriously, whether they choose to back the opposition (Western-supported) or the current dictator (Russian- and Chinese-supported) will determine if we get another Colourful Revolution.

Because the elections weren't even remotely free and fair, of course...

[WalterMitty]

The deciding votes will be cast by the Azerbaijani security forces.


OK, seriously, whether they choose to back the opposition (Western-supported) or the current dictator (Russian- and Chinese-supported) will determine if we get another Colourful Revolution.

Because the elections weren't even remotely free and fair, of course...

ive read that the vote from two elections districts has been annulled.

is there going to be antoher 'election', or what?

[WMS]

The deciding votes will be cast by the Azerbaijani security forces.


OK, seriously, whether they choose to back the opposition (Western-supported) or the current dictator (Russian- and Chinese-supported) will determine if we get another Colourful Revolution.

Because the elections weren't even remotely free and fair, of course...

ive read that the vote from two elections districts has been annulled.

is there going to be antoher 'election', or what?

That's window-dressing by the regime.

We'll either see Kyrgyzstan done again (overthrow of existing dictator) or Uzbekistan done again (repression of opposition). But don't count on another election.

[ag]

ive become somewhat interested in the situation in this country.

does anyone here have a good understanding of the situation that coould provide a tutorial?

I will try. The country belogns to the Aliev family. The old guy, Heydar, was the local Communist boss since 1969 or thereabouts (he'd been the security chief before). Gorbachev had him removed to Moscow as deputy PM of the USSR (and then had him retired).

There was a "time of troubles" in late 1980s - early 1990s. Azerbaijan lost a tenth of its territory in a war with Armenian-populated and backed Mountainous Karabakh region, while the local Armenian population was kicked out in pogroms.  Weak Communist leaders were superseded by weak democratic nationalists. Meanwhile, the old Heydar came back and got installed as the leader of his native Nakhichevan province (a piece of Azerbaijan cut off the rest by a chunk of Armenia).

To make the long story short, then-president Elchibey was forced (in the midst of Armenian battlefield victories and popular uprisings) to bring Heydar back to Baku, first as the parliamentary speaker and, eventually, to yield the power to the old boss.

Heydar ruled as a de facto monarch until last year, when he died.  Whatever ineffective opposition was tolerated never had much impact. Heydar's son and successor, Ilham, used to be thought of as a non-entity playboy, and it is still trying to reassert himself. He was substituted for Heydar at the last presidential election at the last moment, when it became clear the old man might not live to see the polls, but his "election" was still, essentially, managed by the old guard.

So, this is the background of the recent parliamentary election - the first since Heydar's passing.  I haven't followed it very closely, since the pro-government victory was pre-ordained. But in the run-up, it seems, both the opposition and Ilham decided to use the chance to battle it out a bit. A cabinet minister was accused of "plotting to overthrough the government" and arrested. Of course, accusations of cheating at the polls were as inevitable as the cheating itself. The real issue is whether Ilham can hold the loyalty of his government and his subjects. The other issue is how much freedom of action for Ilham can be bought by Azerbaijan's imporance as a major oil producer. It is a monarchy, really, despite the ostensibly republican institutions, and the correct way of analysing it is to view it as more similar to the Persian Gulf monarchies and other regional "republics" like Syria.

[WMS]

Or, walter, you could just read what ag said.

[WalterMitty]

so the president holds the power in the country, not the prime minister?

is the parliament elected through single member districts?  no proportional representation?

[ag]

so the president holds the power in the country, not the prime minister?

is the parliament elected through single member districts?  no proportional representation?

Yes, the president has the power (this is the normal post-Soviet arrangement). And the office is de facto inherited from father to son, like in Syria and, probably, Egypt.

Not sure about the details of electoral system - the web site of the electoral commission seems to be down. There might or might not be a proportional representation component, but I think at least the bulk is the single-member districts.

In any case, it is not very important: Azerbaijan is not a democracy: I define as a democracy a country where the government can possibly be changed by means of an election (even if it is fraudulent in parts, so that the opposition would need an overwhelming advantage at the polls). If, as in Azerbaijan or in Egypt, the government can only be changed by a revolt, it is not, even if there is a token opposition in parliament. The fact that, unlike in, say, Turkmenistan the president has not been declared the living god is attributable to a somewhat greater degree of European influence (Baku is - or was - a surprisingly cosmopolitan city), but is not any indication of the democratic nature of the regime.

[ag]

As a bonus, here is a great story I've recently heard of the Old Boss.  To understand it, a reminder: in the early 1990s Azerbaijan lost a lot of its territory in a bloody war with Armenia. Armenian populated parts are now essentially surrounded by the buffer zone of depopulated Azeri districts (including once major towns like Agdam).  Obviously, Armenians and Azeris hate each other, once huge Armenian population of Azerbaijan has been expelled in bloody pogroms around 1990. Despite armistice, the countries are in a permanent readyness for a new war. Even now, the front line (there is not a real border) sees daily shooting.

As another note, both Christian Armenians and Muslim Azeris are heavy consumers of local brandies. The most typical Azeri brand is called "Agdam" (for the town it was once produced in), but Armenian brandies are considered by far superior. So, here is the story.

A few years ago Heydar Aliev was on a visit to Moscow.  An independent Moscow radio station managed to get him into the studio for an interview.  In the office of the studio they had prepared a lavish table full of food and drink for the post-interview lunch (people from the Caucasus should be treated with Caucausian hospitality). An hour before the interview the editor noticed that the brandy was Armenian (something very fancy and high quality). Naturally, he got mad at his stuff: are you nuts! It's an international scandal! Get Agdam, or something. The poor staffers ran all around Moscow, searching for some Azeri brandy, found some cheap fake and barely made it in time.

After the interview, Heydar comes out, seats at the table, picks up the bottle, smiles benevolently at all those present and says: "Very nice! But don't you have something Armenian?"

Just an anecdote.

[WalterMitty]

how was the relationship between armenia and azerbaijan during the ussr?

open hostility?  concealed hostility?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You'd have a tough time finding open hostility between any republics in the USSR just because the Soviets were so good at supressing that, although no doubt some concealed hostility existed. As ag said above, the main reason for Azerbaijan's resentment to Armenia now is Armenia seizing some of its territory after indepenence (although they never officially annexed it, just set up some autonomous puppet state).

Of course I support Armenia here because:

1-While certainly a very rough republic, Armenia is still far more democratic than Azerbaijan.
2-The people in this area are mostly ethnically Armenian and don't want to be part of Azerbaijan.
3-Armenians are Christian, Azeris are Muslim.

[WalterMitty]

does armenia have a functioning democracy?  or is it a democracy in name only?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Depends on how you define a true functioning democracy, but certainly moreso than most ex-Soviet republic. Going by ag's definition above, yes, even if only barely. The elections are generally free, even though there is rampant fraud and opposition activity is mostly allowed even though the government occaisionally plays the heavy hand and arrests opposition leaders on fairly weak charges. Freedom House gives it a 4,4, which is basically right in the middle.

The current president is a bit of an ass and has more than a small authoritarian streak, although I'd still say he's nowhere near as bad as Putin.

[minionofmidas]

Oh my, the Caucasus.

Read somewhere that a couple days before the polls at a Baku university, all the students were gathered in the main auditorium and told by the uni president that they had to sign a piece of paper pledging to vote for the government candidate and go out canvassing for him as well. Anyone refusing to sign - or not showing up for the canvass - was expelled right away.

And here's a stupid joke a Kartvelian (Georgian, Grusinian, whatever foreigners want to call em) friend told me-
Why does Armenia not have a space program?
Because if they did manage to send someone to outer space, all the Kartvelians would die of envy. And if the Kartvelians were gone, all the Armenians would die of glee. And if the Kartvelians and the Armenians were both gone, the Azeris could take over all of our beloved beautiful Caucasus.

[WalterMitty]

is there a strong islamist movement in azerbaijan?

[ag]

how was the relationship between armenia and azerbaijan during the ussr?

open hostility?  concealed hostility?

Well, interethnic tensions in the Soviet Union were always there, but until the late 1980s it was all fairly suppressed. Armenians later complained that in the 60 years or so of Azeri control Nakhichevan went from an Armenian majority to over 95% Azeri population, and the Karabakh leaders claimed they were to suffer the same fate if they staid in Azerbaijan (in mid 1970s Armenians formed about 3/4 of the population there), but open conflicts were largely unthinkable.

The cosmopolitan Baku, actually, had an enormous ethnic Armenian populaion. A lot of Armenian intelligentsia lived there, and not in the more "provincial" Yerevan (world chess champ Kasparov's mother is a Baku Armenian and he himself grew up there).  There were large Armenian communities in the rest of Azerbaijan as well. There were sizeable rural Azeri communities in Armenia, but, perhaps because most mixed and "disputable" areas wound up in Soviet Azerbaijan, these were a lot smaller.

In late 1980s (still before the end of the USSR) it all exploded: in fact the explosion was one of the things that brought the Soviet Union down. First Armenian leaders in Karabakh started agitating for independence from Azerbaijan, agitation soon growing into a military conflict. Then refugees started fleeing rural areas on both sides in the face of mutual pogroms. At some point (was it February of 1990?) there were enormous anti-Armenian pogroms in Baku and the nearby town of Sumgait; locals would later claim that most of the rioters were Azeri refugees from Armenian-occupied territories, but it does not really matter: Armenian Baku is no more (during the pogroms even the assimilated Muslim Armenians were not spared).  These days, Baku-born Armenians carry Armenian passports that say: "place of birth: Baku, Republic of Armenia" - quite indicative of the attittudes, isn't it?

Gorbachev's government perceived ineptness in stopping the riots and murder was one of the final straws in Soviet desintegration. When both states became independent it became an open war. Armenian and Karabakh armies managed to disrupt the Azeri-imposed blocade of  Karabakh by capturing the intermediate Azeri districts (some claim it was done with the assistance of the local Kurdish population). This quickly became a rout, with the Armenians flooding out of Karabakh in the direction of Azerbaijan proper.  Demoralized Azeri army retreated in panic with the population, abandoning large chunks of territory. Up to 1 mln. Azeri refugees fled with the Army.

At present, the stable armistice has Armenia controlling most of the old Karabakh, the Lachin and Kerdzhali? districts between Karabakh and Armenia, as well as large districts of Azerbaijan proper (Fizuli, Dzhebrail, Agdam, etc.). These last are not colonized, kept empty of their population as bargaining chips in future negotiations of Karabakh independence. Azeris don't want to negotiate, expecting that wealthier Azerbaijan would eventually be able to reconquer the whole thing. Azerbaijan still controls the northern part of the old Karabakh (Shaumyan and part of Mardakert districts). There are, at present, essentially, no Armenians living under Azeri control, nor Azeris living under Armenian - enormous population displacement.

[ag]

does armenia have a functioning democracy?  or is it a democracy in name only?

It is very borderline. Armenia did have one regime change through an election, but I am not sure it is possible now.

Armenia is extremely impoverished by 15 years of economic blocade by Azerbaijan. It's current president is the former leader of Karabakh (Robert Kocharian) - I'd describe him as a "no-nonsense military guy".
Whether he would go if he lost an election is a big question. Some degree of stability is imposed by the permanent war footing: when your country is threatened you don't question authorities as much, so, perhaps, the tolerance of the regime is less tested.  Armenia is also Russia's most reliable ally in the region.

It's even worse in Karabakh. The unrecognized (except by Armenia) country is under a permanent military rule. It's a war zone, in daily expectation of an Azeri attack. There has been some "normalization" recently, but real democracy is not possible until the settlement.

The problem is, the country is largely cut from the rest of the world: it is at war with Azerbaijan and it has historically hateful relationship with Turkey. It has semi-decent relationships with Georgia and good relations with Iran, but that helps only in part. Georgia's primary contact with the outside world is through Azerbaijan (the only active railroads to Georgia go that way, since the routes directly from Russia have been disrupted by the war and effective secession in Georgia's own Abkhazia), and that route is closed to Armenians. Trading/communicating through the friendly Iran has its own obviuos problems, as far as inernational relations are concerned.

In sum, getting to Armenia these days involves flying or driving from Russia through the semi-uncontrolled roads in the Georgian semi-war zone with another secessionist part, South Osetia and Georgia proper. It is also possible to get there through Iran, but that border is underdeveloped. You can imagine what that did to the Armenian economy.

[ag]

is there a strong islamist movement in azerbaijan?

Not really. The Alievs (the rulling dynasty) are no islamists, to begin with (I am not sure they could be properly called Muslims - can you call an old Soviet Politburo member a Muslim?), and old Heydar didn't tolerate much radicalism anyway. Of course, the country is nominally Muslim, and there are some devote areas, but any islamic movement is tightly controlled.

Azeris are also somewhat ethnically/religiously peculiar. They are, essentially Shiite Turks (Turks proper are Sunni). Furthermoer, 2/3 of Azerbaijan is in Iran (there are 2 Iranian provinces called Western and Eastern Azerbaijan) and only 1/3 of it formes the country.  So, Azeris can't follow neither the Arabian Sunni radicalism, nor the Persian Shiite variety: Iran is viewed as a permanent threat to Azerbaijani nationhood. In fact, Iran is informally allied with Armenia.

[WalterMitty]

interesting analysis, ag.

are there any attempts by iran to destabilize azerbaijan?

[ag]

interesting analysis, ag.

are there any attempts by iran to destabilize azerbaijan?

Not really. Iran is more afraid that independent Azerbaijan would destabilize Iranian Azerbaijan, so I don't think they would mess it up as long as a reasonably sane Aliev dictatorship continues. What they are afraid of is that some nationalist regime comes to power in Azerbaijan and starts screwing things South of the border.  They want stability, not instability there. With Alievs gone things could change, of course.

[WalterMitty]

what would iran's response be if azerbaijan starting screwing with iranian held azerbaijan?

[ag]

what would iran's response be if azerbaijan starting screwing with iranian held azerbaijan?

Depends, but it could be very strong. Azeris might be the second-largest ethnic group in Iran, after the Persians (there are many more Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan), they live compactly around Tabriz and they can potentially be part of a non-negligible secessionist movement (during the 20th century there was a brief moment when under Soviet influence Iranian Azerbaijan came close to being split off).  An interventionist Azeri regime would be flat out unacceptable to Iran. At the very least, Iran could try to arm Armenians. It could also try some sort of outright "regime change".  Of course, any Iranian interference would alarm Azerbaijan's patron Turkey (Turkish and Azeri languages are very close cousins and Turkey tends to view Azerbaijan as its own satelite).

Such a development would also be flat-out unacceptable to the West, though: disturbances around the Caspian oil is not what anyone wants to have right now. And, in any case, to the extent that Azerbaijan is preoccupied with a) getting oil-rich and b) dealing with Armenia and Karabakh, this is not going to happen.

In case it were to happen anyway, the first Iranian reaction would be a clampdown on their own side of the border.

[minionofmidas]

what would iran's response be if azerbaijan starting screwing with iranian held azerbaijan?

Depends, but it could be very strong. Azeris might be the second-largest ethnic group in Iran, after the Persians (there are many more Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan), they live compactly around Tabriz and they can potentially be part of a non-negligible secessionist movement (during the 20th century there was a brief moment when under Soviet influence Iranian Azerbaijan came close to being split off).  An interventionist Azeri regime would be flat out unacceptable to Iran.

Azeris are over ten percent of Iran's population, and I'm very sure they are the second largest ethnic group there. Have a look at the recent presidential election results in Iran btw - with political lines badly defined, most candidates (all of them really, though the effect is less marked with Karroubi and Rafsanjani) had very strongly defined regional strongholds - although ethnic issues did not apparently play any role during the campaign. One candidate wound up as, effectively, the Azeri candidate, winning all three Azeri provinces, two of them by large margins, and poll next-to-nothing elsewhere. I've forgotten the name.

[WalterMitty]

any recent news from azerbaijan?

i havent seen anything in the paper for a few days.