Portuguese Presidential Elections in January

[Bono]

I'll pot polls anre relevant campaign events. here's a sum up of the candidates:
Francisco Louçã, Oficious leader of the Left Block. Looney Lefter.
Jerónimo de Sousa, leader of the Communist Party. Commie.
Mário Soares, former Prime Minister and two-term President, from the Socialist Party. recently has become pretty much radical left.
Manuel Alegre. Splinter candidate from the Socialist Party. Old labour like.
Cavaco Silva. Former Prime Minister and Presidential Candidate from the Social Democratic Party. Supported by the Popular Party. Center right I suppose.

[Bono]

I'll post the 3 polls that have been made so far since all present candidates announced.

Aximage Poll 28/10
Cavaco 56.2%
Alegre 15.7%
Soares 10.2%
Jerónimo 3.9%
Louçã 2.3%
Others 1.8%
Undecided 9.9%

Marktest Poll 27/10
Cavaco 48.8%
Alegre 13.8%
Soares 10.3%
Louçã 5.3%
Jerónimo 4.3%
Others 1.7%
Undecided 9.5%
Blank Ballot 2.4%
Not voting 3.9%

Today's Aximage Poll 11/11
Cavaco 52.7%
Alegre 17.5%
Soares 11.2%
Jerónimo 5.5%
Louçã 3.4%
Others 0.7%
Undecided 9%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Soares not a popular President then?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Jerónimo de Sousa, leader of the Communist Party. Commie.

The leader of your communist party is a commie? I would have never thought.


So, as I understand the Wikipedia article on the Portuguese presidency there is at least theoretically a run-off (like in France), which in praxis took place only once so far (in 1986). What are the chances of a Cavaco-Alegre (or Cavaco-Soares) run-off next year?

[Bono]

Soares not a popular President then?

Not really, just that he is old (81) and took a radical turn lately, and plus there is disatisfaction with Socialist Government, and many think he is making a foll of himself, plus he ran over Alegre, his supposed friend, for party support, and that played badly with a lot of people.
there is also his mudsliding in this campaign against Cavaco, and his arrogance, as, for instance, he told former Defense Minister and PP leader to "grow up".

[Bono]

Jerónimo de Sousa, leader of the Communist Party. Commie.

The leader of your communist party is a commie? I would have never thought.


So, as I understand the Wikipedia article on the Portuguese presidency there is at least theoretically a run-off (like in France), which in praxis took place only once so far (in 1986). What are the chances of a Cavaco-Alegre (or Cavaco-Soares) run-off next year?

I'd say they're pretty high at the moment, but it will all depend on how the voter mood will evolve. Elections are January 22 btw.
As for the two possible runnofs, in a Soares-Cavaco runoff the poll today put it at:
Cavaco 70,5%
Soares 25,6%

In an Alegre-Cavaco runoff(the most likely scenario), it was at
Cavaco 57,1%
Alegre 37,8%

[WMS]

Cavaco is clearly ahead. So, because this is Europe, now is the time for Soares to run a "I HATE THE UNITED STATES AND GEORGE BUSH AND THE NEOCONS" campaign to try and win.

[Bono]

Cavaco is clearly ahead. So, because this is Europe, now is the time for Soares to run a "I HATE THE UNITED STATES AND GEORGE BUSH AND THE NEOCONS" campaign to try and win.

Now?
He's been doing that at least since the Iraq war.

[Bono]

Anyways, new poll, that's actually older than the last one I posted, but was released later:

Eurosondagem Poll:
Cavaco 44.7%
Alegre 14.4%
Soares 15.3%
Louçã 5.3%
Jerónimo 4.8%
Others 0.5%
Undecided 15%

[WMS]

Cavaco is clearly ahead. So, because this is Europe, now is the time for Soares to run a "I HATE THE UNITED STATES AND GEORGE BUSH AND THE NEOCONS" campaign to try and win.

Now?
He's been doing that at least since the Iraq war.

Good to see it's not working for once.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Cavaco is clearly ahead. So, because this is Europe, now is the time for Soares to run a "I HATE THE UNITED STATES AND GEORGE BUSH AND THE NEOCONS" campaign to try and win.

Now?
He's been doing that at least since the Iraq war.

Good to see it's not working for once.

Not yet.

[WMS]

Cavaco is clearly ahead. So, because this is Europe, now is the time for Soares to run a "I HATE THE UNITED STATES AND GEORGE BUSH AND THE NEOCONS" campaign to try and win.

Now?
He's been doing that at least since the Iraq war.

Good to see it's not working for once.

Not yet.

The left isn't exactly sweeping all before it in Portugal so far.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Cavaco is clearly ahead. So, because this is Europe, now is the time for Soares to run a "I HATE THE UNITED STATES AND GEORGE BUSH AND THE NEOCONS" campaign to try and win.

Now?
He's been doing that at least since the Iraq war.

Good to see it's not working for once.

Not yet.

The left isn't exactly sweeping all before it in Portugal so far.

This leads me to another question for Bono. Why are there four leftist, but only a single rightist candidate? This sounds awfully like France. Is this usual for Portuguese elections or is there a particular reason for it?

[minionofmidas]

Cavaco is clearly ahead. So, because this is Europe, now is the time for Soares to run a "I HATE THE UNITED STATES AND GEORGE BUSH AND THE NEOCONS" campaign to try and win.

Now?
He's been doing that at least since the Iraq war.

Good to see it's not working for once.

Not yet.

The left isn't exactly sweeping all before it in Portugal so far.

This leads me to another question for Bono. Why are there four leftist, but only a single rightist candidate? This sounds awfully like France. Is this usual for Portuguese elections or is there a particular reason for it?

Of the five parties able to elect MP's three are on the left and two are on the right - and one of the Left parties is governing alone, and even if they hadn't won a majority last elections they'd likely have relied on outside support from the right as much as the far left. While before that Portugal had a coalition government of the two right parties.
The only thing that's seriously odd is that the Socialists couldn't decide on a single candidate ... but that is seriously odd.

[Bono]

Cavaco is clearly ahead. So, because this is Europe, now is the time for Soares to run a "I HATE THE UNITED STATES AND GEORGE BUSH AND THE NEOCONS" campaign to try and win.

Now?
He's been doing that at least since the Iraq war.

Good to see it's not working for once.

Not yet.

The left isn't exactly sweeping all before it in Portugal so far.

This leads me to another question for Bono. Why are there four leftist, but only a single rightist candidate? This sounds awfully like France. Is this usual for Portuguese elections or is there a particular reason for it?

Historically the right has much greater tendences to unite than the left. If we look at coalitions at parliamentary level, for instance, the PS has once made a coalition with PP(at the time just called CDS), and a grand coalition with PSD, but never with the Communist Party.
The comunists, however, grudgingly supported Soares in the 1986 runoff against Freitas do Amaral, but they're still bitter about that to this day, since they percieve Soares to be the man who, with american help, stoped the communists from taking over power in a ditatoria fashion in the Summer of '75.
Of course the truth is much more complex, since soares shared pretty much the same goals of the communist party, until the Communist Party local headquarters started to be blown up by the people in a great part of the country. Yes, later he fought against the commies, true enough, but he wasn't by any means the only one. In fact, the irony of it all is that the man who lead the counter coup in November 25, 1975, who removed the commies from power for good, Gen. Eanes, was later elected preisdent twice, and, altough the Commies never supported him, they lived with Eanes much better than with Soares.
Eanes, in an interesting note, has a position of certain imporatance on Cavaco's campaign.
Sorry for the history lesson, but it's needed to understand the situation.
Of coruse, lots of sugestion over the media that the minor leftist candidates will drop out and endorse either Cavaco or Alegre before election night.

[Bono]

Woot, new polls.
Here it is:

Marktest Poll 15-19/11
Cavaco 44%
Alegre 14.6%
Soares 10.6%
Jerónimo 4.9%
Louçã 4.6%
Undecided/Non respondents 13.3%
Blank Ballot 2.6%
Not Voting 5.4%

[Bono]

Catholic University Poll 21-22/11

Cavaco 39%
Alegre 11%
Soares 10%
Jerónimo 3%
Louçã 3%
Others 1%
Undecided/Non respondents 19%
Blank Ballot 2%
Not Voting 12%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any runoff polls?

[Bono]

Any runoff polls?

Not that I can find.

[Bono]

To clarify something I think was not particulary clear, Soares is not currently president. He was president for ten years, but left office nearly 10 years ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To clarify something I think was not particulary clear, Soares is not currently president. He was president for ten years, but left office nearly 10 years ago.

Ah... I see now. So who's President right now?

[Bono]

To clarify something I think was not particulary clear, Soares is not currently president. He was president for ten years, but left office nearly 10 years ago.

Ah... I see now. So who's President right now?

Jorge Sampaio, a socialist. Can't run for 3rd term cus of term limits.

[minionofmidas]

To clarify something I think was not particulary clear, Soares is not currently president. He was president for ten years, but left office nearly 10 years ago.

Ah... I see now. So who's President right now?

Jorge Sampaio, a socialist. Can't run for 3rd term cus of term limits.

So Sampaio can run again in a) 5 years time? b) 10 years time?

Oh, and: The Socialists have held the presidency for the last 20 years, but they've formed the Government for how much of that time? A bit over half IIRC? So all the "Social Democrat" (they're the Center Right party in Portugal...) governments have been cohabitations? How powerful is the President exavtly?

[Bono]

Let me break this down:

So Sampaio can run again in a) 5 years time? b) 10 years time?

5 years time but he won't cus presidential incumbents are very powerful and plus he's tired of politics anyways.

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28 October 1995-6 April 2002 and now from 12 March 2005 till now.

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Well, I supose the ones before 1986 could be considered cohabitations, only with an independent. But, for the last 20 years, yes.

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That question is the main issue of the present elections. Since Gen. Eanes left office in 1986, the presidency has been exerting power through mostly persuasion. Soares contributed to teh fall of the PSD government in 1995 by exercizing a more or less open war against the PSD government, but only through the public opinion. Sampaio, however, while being generaly an apathetic president, first appointed SantanaLopes for PM after Barroso left, when most poeople are calling for elections, and then 3 months later dissolved the parliament and called for early elections. Most cosntitutionalists, however, say that the president has much more powers ganted to him in the constitution than the ones he actually exerts, ie, the powers are limited by tradition only. Cavaco is expected, though he denies it, to take a more active intervention, using those same powers.
As for cleary spelling them out*reaches for constitution*, the President can dissolve the parliament whenever he wants; can sack the PM at times of national crisis, and can veto laws. said veto can be overided by a vote of the absolute majority of MPs, lest said veto was over either a struturating law, relation between different sectors of property of means of production, election laws or foreign relations, where veto needs 2 thirds to be overided. Oh yea, he can also send bills to the constitutional court, and in case the court finds them unconstitutional, veto them without possibility of overide(at least until the unconstitutional aprts are removed).

[minionofmidas]

Thanks Bono.

(Wait...before 1995 there were no socialist PMs?)