In 2100, what will be the world's #1 superpower?
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  In 2100, what will be the world's #1 superpower?
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Question: In 2100, what will be the world's #1 superpower?
#1
United States
 
#2
China
 
#3
India
 
#4
Mexico
 
#5
Pakistan
 
#6
Saudi Arabia (or some other Middle Eastern nation)
 
#7
Germany (or some other European nation)
 
#8
Brazil (or some other South American nation)
 
#9
Other
 
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Total Voters: 72

Author Topic: In 2100, what will be the world's #1 superpower?  (Read 27204 times)
Platypus
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« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2005, 01:18:53 AM »



click the maple leaf.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2005, 01:40:35 AM »

Can't say for sure - a lot can happen in 95 years. Wars, technological advances, cataclysms, new nations forming on the ruins of old ones, ect.
^^^^

And Earl, I suspect Canada will join the U.S. eventually.

Correction: The US will join Canada

...must...refrain...from laughing...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

It was a joke, you are supposed to laugh Roll Eyes

Good call; we gotta make them think it's a joke so we can surprise them all.

hahahaha good one Gabu... good one... Cheesy
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #27 on: November 16, 2005, 11:27:10 AM »

Crystal ball-gazing is always hazardous to one's reputation, but you've set this one far enough into the future that I'll almost certainly be dead then.

Let's look at the contenders:

The United States:
Once petroleum is dethroned from its preeminent spot as the world's most economically important natural resource around mid-century, I expect the United States will turn somewhat insular.  The U.S will still be a superpower, but it will not be as it is tody the only superpower.

China:
China will be a major power, and unlike some of the more alarmist people here, I don't expect it to become a threat.  I expect that by mid-century the Taiwan issue will be settled one way or another as China comes to adopt a republican form of government, but not necessarily a democratic one. While a veneer of democracy is likely.  I don't expect China will be in the business of starting wars, but if Russia should experience turmoil in the next century, I expect that China will take advantage of the opportuninty to at the very least return Mongolia to its former status as a province of China, and to move the border further north if it can.

India:
Not a superpower.  India simply has too many domestic concerns to start throwing large amounts of effort into foeign policy unless it's forced to.  It'll be econmically important, possibky even the world's largest economy in 2100, but it won't be in the power projection business unless the world is a lot meaner place this century than I explect will likely be the case

Mexico:
Not a superpower.  The Mexican military is a joke and it has no reason as a country to spend the funds to make it not a joke so long as it continues to enjoy peaceful coexistence with the United States.

Pakistan:
Not a superpower.  Only if it went radical Islamist would it have the desire and that would deprive it of the ability.

Middle East:
It will be too busy picking up the pieces from the Zionist-Jihadist Nuclear War in the latter part of the 21st century  for them to be worried about anything other than survival.

Europe:
Old Europe will be engaging in more collective navel-gazing, but with under the vibrant leadership of Ukraine, it will begin to reassert itself on the international stage once again.

Brazil:
To repeat the old saying: Brazil has the potential to be a superpower someday, and it always will.

Other:
Indonesia has the possibility of becoming a superpower, tho I don't think that it has any chance of being the #1 superpower by 2100.  However, if the world goes into a period of turmoil and warduring the next century, I could easily see Indonesia ending up with control  of Thailand, the Philippines, PNG, Australia, and Madagascar plus either Burma or Indochina depending upon whether it allied itself with China or India.
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KillerPollo
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« Reply #28 on: November 16, 2005, 12:00:00 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2005, 12:12:43 PM by ©Mexicαn StαtesRights™ »

I say the US will be thrown to 2nd place by another nation, could be an existing one, or could be a new one that doesn't exist yet. oh btw, the US is now a one-party state, led by REPUBLICANS!
Mexico will give up its democracy for an imperial-style (not monarchical. The president is still around, but is only head of state) government, like back in 1822 with Agustin de Iturbide, remilitarizing the nation with help from the US, the EU, and Israel. Then Mexico forms an Anschluss with the Central American nations and the Dominican Republic (Forget the Southwest US). This all happens thanks to the help of the US, and the EU's influence. Not to mention that Mexico becomes the most powerful Spanish speaking country in the world, moreso than Spain was back in its golden age. Cuba becomes part of the US, and its provinces become US states. Puerto Rico becomes a US state, but The Mexican Emperor and the US president are still fighting (with raging debates, not guns) over PR and Cuba, because they're spanish speaking.
North Korea is still around (Huh) FOR SOME REASON! They manage to create an attack known as Hiroshima II.
Egypt, Jordan and Syria attempt to create the second United Arab Republic. They succeed, and YET AGAIN try to move against Israel in a surprise attack. Israel wipes the UAR II from existance, and becomes the ultimate power in the Middle East (If it isn't already). Israel then moves on to invade Irak, Kuwait, Yemen, and Oman, surrounding Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile Russia by this time has become the 2nd Soviet Union. But it works in a totally different system, much like China's is today and will be in like 20 years.

In other words, I predict there will be multiple powers around the world, not just one, or a "world-government. IF ANYTHING, MORE countries will exist than today. And on the serious note, I don't think the borders in the Americas are going to change much.

My comments on India, the EU, and China later Cheesy
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CheeseWhiz
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« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2005, 01:53:19 PM »

I'll probably still be alive in 2100, so I'm not going to answer this one.  HA!  You won't get to ridicule me when I'm 110!
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J-Mann
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« Reply #30 on: November 16, 2005, 03:12:02 PM »

How the hell are we supposed to know what will transpire over the course of 95 years?

I would love to hear what people in 1910 thought the world would be like in 2005. Tongue

I don't know about political predictions from 1910, but you can revisit old issues of Popular Mechanics or Popular Science to see the technological predictions they've made at different times, mostly about the year 2000, which was seen as sort of a benchmark.

Some of the predictions were spot-on; some were WAY off.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #31 on: November 16, 2005, 03:16:09 PM »

How the hell are we supposed to know what will transpire over the course of 95 years?

I would love to hear what people in 1910 thought the world would be like in 2005. Tongue

I don't know about political predictions from 1910, but you can revisit old issues of Popular Mechanics or Popular Science to see the technological predictions they've made at different times, mostly about the year 2000, which was seen as sort of a benchmark.

Some of the predictions were spot-on; some were WAY off.

Most of the bad predictions are made by people who suffere from what I call "Malthus Syndrom".  That is to say that they cannot possibly see the future in terms of anything different from what is immediatly know to them.
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Gabu
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« Reply #32 on: November 16, 2005, 03:19:24 PM »

How the hell are we supposed to know what will transpire over the course of 95 years?

I would love to hear what people in 1910 thought the world would be like in 2005. Tongue

I don't know about political predictions from 1910, but you can revisit old issues of Popular Mechanics or Popular Science to see the technological predictions they've made at different times, mostly about the year 2000, which was seen as sort of a benchmark.

Some of the predictions were spot-on; some were WAY off.

Most of the bad predictions are made by people who suffere from what I call "Malthus Syndrom".  That is to say that they cannot possibly see the future in terms of anything different from what is immediatly know to them.

Yes, but the only problem is that, in general, you don't know what you don't know when it comes to predicting the future, so avoiding such a thing while still making a concrete prediction is a difficult task, to say the least.
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J-Mann
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« Reply #33 on: November 16, 2005, 03:23:24 PM »

How the hell are we supposed to know what will transpire over the course of 95 years?

I would love to hear what people in 1910 thought the world would be like in 2005. Tongue

I don't know about political predictions from 1910, but you can revisit old issues of Popular Mechanics or Popular Science to see the technological predictions they've made at different times, mostly about the year 2000, which was seen as sort of a benchmark.

Some of the predictions were spot-on; some were WAY off.

Most of the bad predictions are made by people who suffere from what I call "Malthus Syndrom".  That is to say that they cannot possibly see the future in terms of anything different from what is immediatly know to them.

I'd say that would be something that affects all of us when trying to predict the future; we can either base the future off of what we already know, or we can let our imaginations run wild and make crazy speculations. Neither is a perfectly solid method of prediction.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #34 on: November 16, 2005, 03:26:13 PM »

How the hell are we supposed to know what will transpire over the course of 95 years?

I would love to hear what people in 1910 thought the world would be like in 2005. Tongue

I don't know about political predictions from 1910, but you can revisit old issues of Popular Mechanics or Popular Science to see the technological predictions they've made at different times, mostly about the year 2000, which was seen as sort of a benchmark.

Some of the predictions were spot-on; some were WAY off.

Most of the bad predictions are made by people who suffere from what I call "Malthus Syndrom".  That is to say that they cannot possibly see the future in terms of anything different from what is immediatly know to them.

Yes, but the only problem is that, in general, you don't know what you don't know when it comes to predicting the future, so avoiding such a thing while still making a concrete prediction is a difficult task, to say the least.

Well, one can predict the basic course of things by looking at current trends, and then guess what might derive from them.  I guess my point is not that we should not look at current forces, simply that there needs to be something added onto that analysis.  Malthus' problem, for instance, was that he could not look at what advancements were being made in the field of machanics, could not invision what the impact of having more people around to think things up, and could not imagine a society more advanced than his own, and thus, could only imagine a future that was a slightly higher tech version of what he knew.  So, his predictions of mass starvation and loss of resources were wrong, because he simply could not make mental leaps.
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2952-0-0
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« Reply #35 on: November 16, 2005, 07:49:30 PM »

You make a faulty comparison.  Britain eventually lost its status as a great power as a direct result of the First and Second world wars, having been bled dry of both men and treasure as it battled Germany.  Who knows how long the British Empire would have lasted if the Archduke Ferdinand was not assassinated, and neither war were fought?
That's not the only reason. There was also increased desire for independence in many of Britain's colonies (India, Africa, etc), and other empires have fallen for other reasons. Spain's possessions in South America disappeared partly because of its overreliance on gold and silver from Mexico and Peru (think what will happen to Saudi Arabia once oil runs out), more than native revolts.

Also, who knows whether there will be a World War Three? It's totally correct to say that China is starting to march its influence into Africa and Latin America and binding together with Russia while strengthening control over parts of Southeast Asia (Burma, Cambodia).

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Not now, of course, but by the middle of this century China will have become a moderately developed country having surpassed the US as the world's largest economy (even this is a weak assumption; will China fall into a sluggish recession like Japan in 1990? When democracy comes to China will there be mass social unrest like in Indonesia?)

I think it's safe to say that the US will no longer have the title as the world's undisputed superpower.

As for other parts:

Europe has half a chance of becoming a superpower IF it can get itself together (which is not likely now), Russia might be a medium-sized nation with considerable influence like Germany, and who knows? Maybe other regions will fuse together before then and prosper.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #36 on: November 18, 2005, 04:21:38 PM »

Eurasia. Wink
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« Reply #37 on: November 18, 2005, 04:43:06 PM »

USA!



It's extremely unlikely any one country can catch us in terms of wealth or power.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #38 on: November 18, 2005, 07:07:12 PM »

It's impossible to look this far into the future.  But I would be very surprised if the USA is still #1 in 95 years' time.

However, given that the Chinese population currently outnumbers us 4 to 1, and their economy is scheduled to overtake ours within less than 20 years, they're probably the favorites to be #1 by 2050.
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Citizen James
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« Reply #39 on: November 19, 2005, 06:26:38 PM »

The problem is that human behavior is chaotic (in a mathmatical sense), the further ahead you try and project the harder it is to get a decent estimate.  Things like the weather or the stock market are childs play in comparison.

Some possible scenerios:

The new crusades
The terrorists suceed in transforming the war on terrorism into a war of peoples.  The west makes it into a new crusades.  Japan, though not predominantly Christian, still gets involved in the war  after devistating attacks in Toyko.  Result: A phyric victory for the west - Paris in ruins, major damage in countless western cities, much of the world's oil supply under a radioactive glow.  Beneficiaries:  Brazil, Argentina, cand Russia, who have their own oil supplies and would be at most tangential to the war while being fairly well along in their industrialization.   China makes a decent run for it, but is too corupt and inefficent to hold superiority all the way up to the century mark without sweeping reforms.

American Theocracy/fascism.
  America swings hard to the fundementalist right and continues to gut the bill of rights in the name of national security.  War with China looms after North Korea is "cleansed with the holy fire" of nuclear weapons.  Japan sits tensely in the middle trying to convince all parties that they are more or less "Swiss".  Result:  The reminants of the US (Minus LA, San Fransisco, Seatle, and most of the west coast and major western cities), turn severely isolatinist and are viewed as paraiahs by most of the rest of the world.  China ceases to exist, along with much of southeast asia.  Japan gets through largely unscathed from direct attacks, but with terible aftermath of fallout has to deal with major health issues.  Beneficiaries: the EU.   Though the enviorment and climate change become the #1 most important issues, they are best suited technologically and furthest from the devistation to hold their own.

Deux ex machina
Who says the future has to be bad?  Technological advances could revolutionize the way the world works - safe, cheap unlimited sources of energy; inexpensive means of turning seawater into drinkable water; cures for AIDS and cancer; and so on.   Beneficiaries - everyone, but especially the developers (most likely the US, Japan, or the EU).

Diablo ex machina
Of course, there is also the law of unintended consequences.  One of the factors in the downfall of the Roman empire was side effects from their technology - more specificly their plumbing was made with lead leading to widespread lead poisioning.   What happens if a new technology becomes widespread, and the consequences are either ignored or slow to manifest.  Beneficiaries - nobody, though less developed nations would presumably be less effected.

China Reborn
Survivors of the Tien a Mein square massicre come to power in China and enact massive democratic reforms.  Programs are undertaken to produce transperancy in government leading to greater dectection and elimination of coruption.  There are growing pains, but with a large and increasingly well educated population, along with widespread natural resources, they overtake the still strong US in terms of overall power and influence.

India matures
The world's most populus democracy, continues to industrialize and educate it's people.  With technial know-how and sizable resources, they rise quickly to world power status.

And those are just a few vague possiblities.  There are plenty more where those came from.
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phk
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« Reply #40 on: November 19, 2005, 07:04:16 PM »

Yours are way too Asia-oriented.
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Platypus
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« Reply #41 on: November 19, 2005, 11:33:04 PM »

Asia IS the focus, phkn.

Half the world's population and growing, in that sense, economically, militarily, diplomatically-Asia is where it's at.
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KillerPollo
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« Reply #42 on: November 21, 2005, 11:57:04 AM »

USA!



It's extremely unlikely any one country can catch us in terms of wealth or power.

I have a hard time not laughing at this comment. That's what the Romans said a WHILE BACK, iirc.
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Platypus
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« Reply #43 on: November 21, 2005, 08:43:59 PM »


Oceania.
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DanielX
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« Reply #44 on: November 21, 2005, 08:49:40 PM »

USA!



It's extremely unlikely any one country can catch us in terms of wealth or power.

I have a hard time not laughing at this comment. That's what the Romans said a WHILE BACK, iirc.

How long did the Romans last? 500 years, and that's just their 'Empire'. Counting the earlier Republic, they were around for a millenium. And the remnant Byzantines were around for a thousand years after that. So the US isn't going to disappear anytime soon, if you use the Romans as an example.
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MAS117
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« Reply #45 on: November 21, 2005, 09:12:00 PM »

Either the U.S., China, or India.
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WMS
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« Reply #46 on: November 22, 2005, 02:54:59 PM »

USA!



It's extremely unlikely any one country can catch us in terms of wealth or power.

I have a hard time not laughing at this comment. That's what the Romans said a WHILE BACK, iirc.

How long did the Romans last? 500 years, and that's just their 'Empire'. Counting the earlier Republic, they were around for a millenium. And the remnant Byzantines were around for a thousand years after that. So the US isn't going to disappear anytime soon, if you use the Romans as an example.

A mildly tongue-in-cheek approach to what DanielX said. Kiki

"Rome fell.
Yeah, after about a thousand years. At that rate, the United States will survive well into the second half of our new millennium. Woohoo! USA! USA! USA!
Sorry. The point I should be making is that it's a mistake to cram the thousand year rise and fall of the Roman Empire into the four (or eight) years of the Bush administration. Rome wasn't built in a day. You can quote me on that.
One final nitpick. The syndicated columnists liken the US to the Roman Empire at its decadent peak, the Rome of Russell Crowe, when the better comparison is to Rome at the end of the Second Punic War." Cheesy
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StatesRights
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« Reply #47 on: November 22, 2005, 05:31:56 PM »

The United States will not exist as we currently know it in 2100. Sorry to say.
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jokerman
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« Reply #48 on: November 22, 2005, 05:34:54 PM »

Mongolia

It will begin it's next conquest of the world around 2040.
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WMS
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« Reply #49 on: November 22, 2005, 06:49:29 PM »

Mongolia

It will begin it's next conquest of the world around 2040.

Fortunately, Mongolia Purple heart USA!
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