Wales 2007 (National Assembly Elections)
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Harry Hayfield
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« on: November 16, 2005, 03:33:22 PM »

Election Result 2003 (40 constituency seats, 20 regional seats)

Constituencies
Labour 30
Plaid Cymru 5
Liberal Democrats 3
Conservatives 1
Forward Wales 1

Regionals
Conservatives 9
Plaid Cymru 7
Liberal Democrats 3
Labour 0

Totals
Labour 30
Plaid Cymru 12
Conservatives 11
Liberal Democrats 6
Forward Wales 1

Update: In May 2005, Peter Law AM (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) was elected as an Independent MP for the Westminster constituency. Standing against the offical Labour candidate in that election saw him sacked from the Labour Party (now 29) and robs Labour of their overall majority
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2005, 04:17:07 PM »

Actually Law left Labour just before he announced he was running as an Independent Labour candidate; the whole row over the shortlist and everything that's sprung from it has been just... strange...
I'd be suprised if he stood for the Assembly seat again; he's not a well man and he'll probably choose between Westminster and the Assembly (which is obviously a very tough decision Tongue). If he retires I think an open shortlist will be chosen...
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2005, 05:43:21 PM »

Actually Law left Labour just before he announced he was running as an Independent Labour candidate; the whole row over the shortlist and everything that's sprung from it has been just... strange...
I'd be suprised if he stood for the Assembly seat again; he's not a well man and he'll probably choose between Westminster and the Assembly (which is obviously a very tough decision Tongue). If he retires I think an open shortlist will be chosen...

I happened to meet Mr. Law at the Royal Welsh Show (along with at least 17 other Assembly Members including all those elected to Westminster) and they all said the same thing "I am standing from the Assembly in 2007"
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2005, 05:50:11 PM »

I happened to meet Mr. Law at the Royal Welsh Show (along with at least 17 other Assembly Members including all those elected to Westminster) and they all said the same thing "I am standing from the Assembly in 2007"

And you believed them all? Wink Grin
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2005, 06:58:00 PM »

Constituency Results 2003 (Winning Party and % Majority)
Aberavon Lab 42%
Alyn and Deeside Lab 23%
Blaenau Gwent Lab 59%
Brecon and Radnorshire LD 20%
Bridgend Lab 11%
Caernarfon PC 28%
Caerphilly Lab 37%
Cardiff Central LD 35%
Cardiff North Lab 2%
Cardiff South Lab 20%
Cardiff West 33%
Carmarthen East PC 17%
Carmarthen West Lab 2%
Ceredigion PC 18%
Clwyd South Lab 15%
Clwyd West Lab 2%
Conwy Lab 0%
Cynon Valley Lab 43%
Delyn Lab 10%
Gower Lab 24%
Islwyn Lab 36%
Llanelli Lab 0%
Meirionydd Nant Conwy PC 38%
Merthyr Tydfil Lab 44%
Monmouth Con 31%
Montgomeryshire LD 12%
Neath Lab 22%
Newport East Lab 20%
Newport West Lab 18%
Ogmore Lab 39%
Pontypridd Lab 28%
Preseli, Pembroke Lab 6%
Rhondda Lab 35%
Swansea East Lab 23%
Swansea West Lab 13%
Torfaen Lab 36%
Vale of Clwyd Lab 15%
Vale of Glamorgan Lab 10%
Wrexham Forward Wales 6%
Ynys Môn PC 9%
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2005, 05:19:41 AM »

IIRC the new seats will be used but maybe not. Anyways...

Aberavon Lab 42%
Alyn and Deeside Lab 23%

Obviously these two are up in the air Grin

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Depends what Law does. Either way absurdly safe Lab or safe Ind Lab.

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LibDems will hold, but by how much depends on how all the tactical stuff works out. Things would be very interesting with the pre-83 boundaries, but they're never coming back...

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Should be safe enough

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As Caernarfon, safe Nat. Post-boundary changes this should be one to watch methinks.

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Safe

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Safe; majority should fall a little bit though (to about 25%-30% I think)

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Will be tough to hold this

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Safe

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There's an amusing possibility of these two flipping around; Plaid's AM in Carmarthen East is absolutely dire and won't have the sudden death of a former M.P for the seat and Plaid leader just before the election to help him out. On other hand, they had a good candidate in Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South last election and he's going to run again IIRC.

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Labour gain as every polling station outside Lampeter vanishes into thin air Grin
In all seriousness, I think that both Plaid and the LibDems will try hard at this one... how likely would you say a repeat of the upset in the General Election is?

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Majority will go up methinks

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Very close either way again (even though it shouldn't be)

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Boundary changes confuse this...

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All safe

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Labour will probably increase their majority a bit

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All safe

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Depends on turnout

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Majority to go up methinks

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Safe

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Could be interesting if the comically divided opposition starts voting tactically. Don't think that'll happen though.

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Safe

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Too unpredictable to make a guess

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Easy Labour gain

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Too unpredictable to make a guess
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2005, 12:07:32 PM »

Thankfully there are NO boundary changes for the 2007 elections (thank goodness) and my personal opinons are:

GAINS
Cardiff North Lab 2% (to Con)
Carmarthen West Lab 2% (to Con)
Ceredigion PC 18% (to LD)
Clwyd West Lab 2% (to Con)
Llanelli Lab 0% (to PC)
Preseli, Pembroke Lab 6% (to Con)
Swansea West Lab 13% (to LD)
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Rural Radical
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« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2005, 04:46:40 PM »

Thankfully there are NO boundary changes for the 2007 elections (thank goodness) and my personal opinons are:

GAINS
Cardiff North Lab 2% (to Con)  About the same I think
Carmarthen West Lab 2% (to Con) Ditto
Ceredigion PC 18% (to LD) Moved back to its master
Clwyd West Lab 2% (to Con) Agreed
Llanelli Lab 0% (to PC) No way increased Lab majority. Pc on backfoot
Preseli, Pembroke Lab 6% (to Con) With a local candidate Lab Hold
Swansea West Lab 13% (to LD) I dont think so. No evidence of Torys voting tactically.

Also add Labour Gain Wrexham

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2005, 05:13:52 PM »

Thankfully there are NO boundary changes for the 2007 elections (thank goodness)

Interesting; I remember reading a news report that said the opposite. Will have to check the boundary commission's site then.

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That might actually be Labour's most vunerable seat; Morgan only held on at Westminster level because of a personal vote and it really shouldn't be a Labour seat...

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IIRC the 2% margin was actually over the Plaid candidate (will check. Actually I'm suprised I've not been-a-making maps...)

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It does look better in a slightly orangish yellow than green so, yay!

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Probably not, but the Labour majority will be down on last time

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That pretty much goes without saying Smiley
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afleitch
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« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2005, 05:21:39 PM »

Scotland still keeps the old 97/01 Westminster boundaries in 2007 which are apallingly out of date.
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Peter
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« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2005, 12:08:21 PM »

After some checking on the Wales Boundary Commission, I have come to the conclusion that there will be boundary changes and these should be in time for the 07 Assembly elections. See the Commission Provisional Recommendations (PDF warning) and Final recommendations (PDF) that suggest that changes apply to both Westminster and Cardiff constituencies and that the final report on boundary changes must be made by the end of 2006, indicating it should be implemented for the 2007 elections.

That said, most of the changes in Wales are relatively minor, and 17 constituencies remain totally untouched with a number of relatively minor changes that involve at most 200 electors. The only significant changes are in the Gwynned and West Clwyd area

Remember of course that Wales is retaining all its 40 seats, and these will continue to be the same in Westminster and Cardiff. The thing in Scotland is that they have had their Westminster seat tally reduced to 59 at the last election. After consultation, the Scottish Parliament decided that it did not want to reduce the number of Scottish Parliament constituencies but retain the present 73, thus implementing the Westminster boundary changes in Scotland is impossible.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2005, 12:15:18 PM »

That said, most of the changes in Wales are relatively minor, and 17 constituencies remain totally untouched with a number of relatively minor changes that involve at most 200 electors. The only significant changes are in the Gwynned and West Clwyd area

Thanks for checking; net result of the boundary changes makes Caernarfon (renamed Arfon) a tempting Labour target. There was a proposal to add a new seat around Cardiff IIRC, but the idea was dropped before the commision started work.
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afleitch
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2005, 02:03:45 PM »

After some checking on the Wales Boundary Commission, I have come to the conclusion that there will be boundary changes and these should be in time for the 07 Assembly elections. See the Commission Provisional Recommendations (PDF warning) and Final recommendations (PDF) that suggest that changes apply to both Westminster and Cardiff constituencies and that the final report on boundary changes must be made by the end of 2006, indicating it should be implemented for the 2007 elections.

That said, most of the changes in Wales are relatively minor, and 17 constituencies remain totally untouched with a number of relatively minor changes that involve at most 200 electors. The only significant changes are in the Gwynned and West Clwyd area

Remember of course that Wales is retaining all its 40 seats, and these will continue to be the same in Westminster and Cardiff. The thing in Scotland is that they have had their Westminster seat tally reduced to 59 at the last election. After consultation, the Scottish Parliament decided that it did not want to reduce the number of Scottish Parliament constituencies but retain the present 73, thus implementing the Westminster boundary changes in Scotland is impossible.

Exactly. The Commission must undergo another boundary review after 2007 (after recently undergoing a review of the ward boundaries to take into acount the new multi-member wards in place)

I am trying to work out what the possible results of this commission will be
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2005, 12:16:21 PM »

So as I understand it, all that will happen (in these changes is)

Conwy (Lab 31% PC 31% Con 25% LDm 14%) dives into Merioneth and becomes Aberconwy.

The northern tip of Caernarfon (PC 55% Lab 27% Con 11% LDm 7%) stays on it's own and is renamed Arfon, whilst the southern part is combined with the remainder of Merioneth to become Dwyfor.

Correct?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2005, 12:30:46 PM »

Sort of; the part of the Merioneth seat not in the old county of Merioneth goes to Conwy, which loses Bangor and is renamed Aberconwy. Caernarfon loses the Lleyn, gains Bangor and is renamed Arfon. Basically fitting the boundaries in with local government boundaries and ending the pro-Plaid gerrymander in the area.
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Rural Radical
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« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2005, 04:44:50 PM »

Sort of; the part of the Merioneth seat not in the old county of Merioneth goes to Conwy, which loses Bangor and is renamed Aberconwy. Caernarfon loses the Lleyn, gains Bangor and is renamed Arfon. Basically fitting the boundaries in with local government boundaries and ending the pro-Plaid gerrymander in the area.

Arfon should be a Labour seat.

Aberconwy. 3 Way Marginal. Any Thoughts ?

Merioneth. Safe PC




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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #16 on: November 26, 2005, 02:48:56 PM »

Re the inital estimates for the new Gwynedd seats, I've written to someone I know in Aberystwyth who's going to do a bit of digging around to see if he can find some notional calculations

My inital guess is (based on nothing more than Assembly 2003)

Aberconwy Plaid Cymru (My guess that Aberconwy would vote Plaid comes from the marginal status of Lab / PC Conwy plunging down into rock solid Meirionnydd)

Arfon Plaid Cymru (This is a complete mystery to me, as I have no idea where Plaid Cymru's base is in Caenarfon. Is it in the north (Bangor) or the south (Lleyn Penisula)?)

Dwyfor Plaid Cymru (This is pretty much definite due to the AM being the Presiding Officer)

And on the regional list element

Con gain the fourth seat on the regional list from Plaid
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: November 26, 2005, 03:50:19 PM »

One big, big problem with notional results in most of Wales; there are so many independent councillers...

Aberconwy Plaid Cymru (My guess that Aberconwy would vote Plaid comes from the marginal status of Lab / PC Conwy plunging down into rock solid Meirionnydd)

The Nant Conwy area (historically in Caernarfonshire) is quite odd; it's actually got some reasonably well off rural areas (very rare in NW Wales) which are overwhelmingly Plaid but before they came along used to vote Tory (I think)... but you've also got the inevitable slate towns, which vote Labour when they run the right sort of candidate, but Plaid when they don't.
The new Aberconwy seat could potentially be a four way marginal; the LibDems still do well in parts locally (I'm still not sure what caused the huge collapse in non-local elections though) and the Tories didn't do *terribly* in the Westminster election...

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They do best in the Lleyn; it's usually one of their best areas in the whole of Wales. Caernarfon itself is generally Labour inclined, as is Bangor and the slate towns south of it, although (mostly due to the language issue) Plaid have a following in all of them.
In Westminster terms, it's a notional Labour seat, no doubt about that and maybe by a large margin, but I've no idea who'd notionally have won it for the Assembly elections either. I'll have a look at the council results...

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^^^

The old git is basically an independent *anyway* these days...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: November 26, 2005, 04:04:17 PM »

Council elections not much help; none of the parties run in enough wards.
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Peter
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« Reply #19 on: November 26, 2005, 04:12:14 PM »

Council elections not much help; none of the parties run in enough wards.

I know the feeling. Labour have pretty much given up on entire districts/boroughs in parts of Surrey and Sussex.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: November 26, 2005, 04:20:26 PM »

Council elections not much help; none of the parties run in enough wards.

I know the feeling. Labour have pretty much given up on entire districts/boroughs in parts of Surrey and Sussex.

*wishes that General Election results by ward were realised*

An especially bizarre case was in the area around Blaenau Ffestiniog; of the three wards, Labour didn't run anyone in the eastern two and Plaid didn't run anyone in the western ward. Seeing as Labour and Plaid are pretty much the only parties anyone up there votes for, all three councillers were either unopposed or only had a token independent run against them. Demographically all three wards are very similer; some of the highest % of Welsh speakers in Wales, very blue collar etc.
Methinks a deal may have been struck.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #21 on: December 04, 2005, 12:32:46 AM »

After some checking on the Wales Boundary Commission, I have come to the conclusion that there will be boundary changes and these should be in time for the 07 Assembly elections.
The Boundary Commission submitted their report to the Secretary of State in January.  He has the option of proposing modifications, but both plans have to be considered by Parliament.  If they reject the Boundary Commission plan, the could consider an alternative by the Secretary.

Had the government chosen to, the new boundaries could have been used for the Parliament election last year.  The final report from the Scotland Boundary Commission was submitted about the same time, and the new boundaries were used in May.

Speculating, the government probably didn't want the Wales boundaries to be out of sync with the English boundaries, while at the same time they wanted to lock in the reduction of seats for Scotland.

The Scottish commission completed their recommendations very early, allowing time to digest the knock-on effect of reducing the size of the Scottish Parliament.  This in turn resulted in the decoupling of the Westminster and Holyrood constituencies, so that the new Westminster constituencies could be used in 2005, while the old Westminster constituencies will continued to be used for Holyrood through 2007.

The Wales commission was careful not to increase the number of Westminster constituencies, even going so far as to create a inter-county seat to avoid an addition.  This permits the new boundaries to be used in 2007 with little effect on the overall AMS mechanism.
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Peter
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« Reply #22 on: December 06, 2005, 06:30:51 AM »

Had the government chosen to, the new boundaries could have been used for the Parliament election last year.  The final report from the Scotland Boundary Commission was submitted about the same time, and the new boundaries were used in May.

Speculating, the government probably didn't want the Wales boundaries to be out of sync with the English boundaries, while at the same time they wanted to lock in the reduction of seats for Scotland.

I don't believe so. My understanding of this issue is that all boundary changes should enter force in the same election. They did not in Scotland because special dispensation was given by an Act of Parliament to reduce the number of seats in Scotland an election early (because of its independent legislative powers).

Its not uncommon for much of the country to report quite early with its boundary recommendations - many of the Home Counties have been reported for over a year now - but generally all must take effect at one election only.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #23 on: December 07, 2005, 04:25:36 AM »

I don't believe so. My understanding of this issue is that all boundary changes should enter force in the same election. They did not in Scotland because special dispensation was given by an Act of Parliament to reduce the number of seats in Scotland an election early (because of its independent legislative powers).

Its not uncommon for much of the country to report quite early with its boundary recommendations - many of the Home Counties have been reported for over a year now - but generally all must take effect at one election only.
The 4 boundary commissions operate independently, with the filing of their last report to the Secretary of State determining the deadline for their report for the next general review (8 to 12 years later).   The reports that the English commission have been preparing for various counties could be considered final chapter drafts for their complete report.  Once they have finished with all of England, all the local reports will be bound together to form the report for England which will be submitted to the Secretary of State and Parliament.

I'm sure that there is some sort of coordination between the commissions as far as their activities, and the government can manipulate the laying of the reports before Parliament.  The 4th general reviews for Scotland and Wales were completed in December 1994, but the government waited until the English review was completed in April 1995 before placing all 3 reviews before Parliament (so that they would take effect at the next election).  IIRC, the Tory majority at the time was almost non-existent so that an election could have been held at any time.   The Northern Ireland review was completed in June 1995, and went directly to Parliament.

Dates of Last (4th General) Reviews (report submitted to government):

England April 1995
Northern Ireland June 1995
Scotland December 1994
Wales December 1994

The the 5th Reviews are (were) due between 8 and 12 years after the last report.

When 5th Review Began:

England February 2000
Northern Ireland May 2003
Scotland June 2001
Wales December 2002

The boundaries are based on the electorates at these dates, which produces some curiosities. 

The Scotland boundaries are based on 2001 electorates, but the English electoral quota of a year earlier.  The new English constituencies which might first be used in 2010, will be based on 10 year old data. 

The English (parliamentary) boundary commission has been waiting for the LGCE to complete its re-warding of local governments before beginning their own reviews.   The ward boundaries are based on more current electorates (at the start of the local review).  The boundary commission then has to determine what the 2000 electorates would have been if the new ward boundaries had existed then.

Some areas of the English review were delayed waiting for the LGCE to complete its local reviews.  The scope of the LGCE reviews were also changed from merely boundary review, but also consideration of other electoral arrangements (size of councils, multi-member wards, and so on).  The LGCE might do a review for a unitary authority, but not for its former county.  Or once it redid district council wards, it would immediately do the county council divisions based on the district wards.  The BCE wanted to do the UA and adjacent counties at the same time, and the division review simply delayed the LGCE from more completing reviews of more utility for the BCE.  Later the two bodies began to coordinate their efforts more.  The LGCE would do reviews of UAs and their former counties at about the same time, and put off their division reviews until later.

The BCE also had to suspend public operations during the two general elections.

The English commission started their effort early due to the large effort.  By spreading the reviews out, they can maintain a relatively small long-term staff.   If all goes well, their final recommendations (for Greater Manchester) will be issued in April 2006, with the complete report issued somewhat later.

Scotland started their review next, perhaps in part because of the radical changes that would need to be made.  They made their initial recommendations for all of Scotland.  This makes sense because of the reduction of constituencies, and the relatively small size of local authorities (In England counties typically contain a half dozen constituencies, so that the counties can be used to compartmentalize the process).

The Scotland Act established that Westminster constituencies would be used for Holyrood, and also based the number of regional seats as a proportion (56/73) of the number of constituencies.  It also established that the next Westminster boundary review would use the English electoral quota, which is what produced the reduction of Scottish Westminster constituencies.   The same was done in the Government of Wales Act for Wales, except that there was no change to the electoral quota for Wales, which continues to use its own independent quota.

Once the Scottish boundary commission made its preliminary recommendations in February 2002, the Scottish Secretary began a consultation as to what to do about the constituencies for the Scottish Parliament.  If the new Westminster boundaries had been used, the number of MSPs would have been reduced from 129 to 105.  Ultimately the government decided to decouple the two sets of constituencies (Westminster retains authority for the electoral arrangements for the Scottish Parliament).

The Scottish commission then went ahead with their review, holding hearings and essentially having completed their effort by late 2003.  The legislation decoupling the two sets of constituencies was passed in summer 2004.  This also relieved the commission of having to review the region boundaries as part of their Westminster review.  The Scottish commission submitted their report to the Secretary of State on November 30, 2004.  HM issued the order putting the new boundaries in place on February 9, 2005.

Note, the Scottish Commission can make interim recommendations, and thus could propose modifications to the Westminster boundaries to take into account the new ward boundaries in Scotland (Glasgow happens to have 21 wards, which is coincidentally a multiple of the 7 constituencies that Glasgow has).

The Wales commission started relatively early, and made its initial recommendations for the entirety of Wales.  They may have acted early just in case there would be knock-on effects for the Assembly.  There were none since the number of constituencies remained at 40.  They did update the Assembly electoral regions as part of the review.  Their report was given to the Secretary of State in December, but he chose not to place it before Parliament prior to the general election.

Another factor in the dates that the Wales and Scotland commissions issued their reports may have been in consideration of the local government boundaries.  If the report is issued more than 10 years after the report for the previous review, they have to take account of the local boundaries as of the 10th anniversary of the previous report.  If the report is issued earlier, the local boundaries as of the date of the report are used.  This in effect makes a moving target.

The Northern Ireland commission started last, and has been taking a fairly leisurely pace, given they only have 18 seats, and have made revisions primarily to balance electorates.

The next general review could conceivably be more coordinated, especially if the reformer/tinkerer Blair is still PM (at time new legislation was passed).  The boundary commissions will move to boundary committees under the Electoral Commission as soon as they complete their current reviews.  And there is not a particular reason that a common schedule and electoral quota could not be used for the entire country (other than Labours dominance of Wales).  Reduction of the number of constituencies in Wales could trigger changes for use with the Assembly for Wales, similar to those made in Scotland.  In Wales, the ratio of regional to constituency seats could be increased so as to maintain the number of AMs.  The current 1:2 ratio doesn't do a very good job of producing proportionality, especially with 4 parties.

The following is an exchange in February 2005 about when the Wales recommendations would become effective

Mr. Wiggin: To ask the Deputy Prime Minister what dates he has planned for implementing the recommendations of the Boundary Commission in Wales. [214526]

Mr. Raynsford: The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister received the Report of the Welsh Parliamentary Boundary Commission on Monday 31 January. By statute, we are obliged to lay this report before Parliament, together with a draft Order in Council giving effect to the new constituencies, as soon as may be after receiving it, and if Parliament approves the draft, to submit that draft to Her Majesty in Council. Subsequently the Order will be made and come into force immediately thereafter or at such later date as may be provided for in the Order.

I think the response translates to "sooner or later or whenever"
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