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M
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« Reply #25 on: March 28, 2006, 10:50:53 AM »

So what type of government will we see? Not enough seats for a Kadima-Labour coalition. Could Shinui or that new splinter party of Shinui join in?

As far as I know, Shiui doesn't have much chance entering Knesset at this point.

Exactly, Shinui is pretty much dead.


These are the complete numbers for all parties. A few new polls were just released today, therefore some minor differences to the numbers I posted earlier. Note that Israeli opinion polls work with seats and not percentages:

Kadima 33-37
Labour 17-21
Likud 12-17
Yisrael Beytenu 7-15
National Union + National Religious Party 8-12
Shas 8-12
Arab parties 7-9
United Torah Judaism 5-7
Meretz-Yachad 5-6
Tafnit 0-5
Ale Yarok 0-2
Gil 0-2
Greens 0-1
Shinui 0

I'm not familiar with all of those parties. Some were probably just newly founded.

Considering that territorial concessions to the Palestinians is part of Kadima's platform, a coalition with Likud or any other party of the far right seems rather unlikely. So, Kadima + Labour should be the logical outcome. But as BRTD pointed out, those two would need additional partners for a majority in the Knesset. While Likud is too hawkish/anti-Palestinian for Kadima's taste, something like Meretz-Yachad might be too dovish/"pro-Palestinian" for them. So, I guess we will have to wait and see.

Tafnit at 5? Where did you see this number?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #26 on: March 28, 2006, 12:35:13 PM »

Tafnit at 5? Where did you see this number?

To be precise it was "4.5". I've decided this could mean 4 or 5. The source is something called "Geocartographia".
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M
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« Reply #27 on: March 28, 2006, 03:39:51 PM »

Exit polls:

Kadima 29-32
Labor 20-22
Likud 10-12 (gasp!)
Shas 10-11
Yisrael Beitenu 12-14 (wow! Right-wing Russians)
Shas 10-11
UTJ 5-6
Meretz 5
Arab parties (Chadash, Balad, Ra'am) 7-8
Pensioners Party (golly!) 6-8
Greens just at the threshhold
Green Leaf (legalization of marijuana) just at the threshhold

Lots of surprises here: Kadima worse than expected but still very well. Labor somewhat better than expected. Likud was a disaster- this is the end of Netanyahu, at least for a few years (no politician ever really disappears in Israel- see Peres). I think we're looking at a Kadima-Labor-Meretz-Pensioners bloc here.

Which means the Right is in the doldrums and internally divided at just the wrong time; the religious parties are being rejected by the system for the first time since the early '50s; and if Likud's next leader is Silvan Shalom, it may even fold back into Kadima.

BTW, the pensioner's leader is a real live secret agent. Nearing 80, Rafi Eitan helped smuggle Jews out of Nazi occupied Europe, blew up a British radar station outside Haifa that was helping catch the smuggled immigrants, kidnapped Nazi criminal Eichmann in Argentina, and made a West German arms shipment to Egypt in the '60s disappear. His party can be safely assumed to be semi-socialist, but of the moderate-hawkish consensus Kadima represents,
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #28 on: March 28, 2006, 04:21:34 PM »


A bit lower than I'd been thinking, but not by much (I'd decided that much of the hype 'bout them was overblown).

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Decent result; first increase for a long time.

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Smiley
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WMS
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« Reply #29 on: March 28, 2006, 05:07:59 PM »

I'll be watching this one with great interest - I've long felt Israel needed a strong centrist party. Grin

Its so sad to see Shinui drop off - but I guess Kadima has redeemed their mission.

And Kadima is stronger than Shinui ever was. Smiley

If Shas passes Likud I'm going to laugh quite a bit. Grin
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« Reply #30 on: March 28, 2006, 09:35:42 PM »

With 96% of the vote counted:

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1143498755311&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Kadima 28

Labor 20

Shas 13

Israel Beitenu 12

Likud 11

Dave
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ag
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« Reply #31 on: March 28, 2006, 10:29:42 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2006, 10:32:58 PM by ag »


Don't forget the smaller parties - these are important.

www.haaretz.com

National Union - National Religious Party 9
Pensioners 7
United Torah Judaism 6
Meretz 4
Arab Parties altogether 10

As an aside, I really hate this "Arab Parties" thing: even a relatively leftist Israeli paper like Haaretz behaves as if there were no difference between the "Arab Parties" - why are then there 3 or 4 of these? Not to forget the "minor fact", that Hadash isn't even an "Arab Party": they are bicommunal Communists, get some Jewish vote, and almost always get a Jewish candidate high enough on the list to become an MK (for many years it used to be Tamar Gozanski, then Dov Chernin, I don't know who is on their slate now). It's a classic example of Zionist selective myopia: they really, really, don't see arabs.
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Jake
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« Reply #32 on: March 28, 2006, 10:35:25 PM »

28 Kadima (+14)
20 Labor (-1)
13 Shas (+2)
12 Yisrael Beytenu (+9)
11 Likud (-18)
9   National Union-National Religious Party (-1)
7   Pensioners (+7)
6   United Torah Judaism (+1)
4   Meretz (-1)
4   United Arab List (+1)
3   Hadash (+1)
3   Balad

So...

I'm guessing we saw major backlash by religious lower/middle class Jews against Likud because of Netanyahu combined with a fair preformance for the Pensioners. Rather bland election it seems (turnout was down a fair bit too I read).


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« Reply #33 on: March 29, 2006, 12:04:32 AM »

Wow, Likud got smashed. I'm happy Smiley
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Michael Z
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« Reply #34 on: March 29, 2006, 03:46:22 AM »

Would have been interesting to see how Kadima would've fared had Sharon not had his stroke, but alas, alas.

Anyhow, I assume we're looking at a Kadima-Labor coalition government?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #35 on: March 29, 2006, 04:34:35 AM »

What really f***ed Likud (5th! 5th!) seems to have been Labour who polled very, very well in traditional Likud strongholds (and well enough to offset the loss of other voters to Kadima et al in traditional Labour strongholds). Some stuff from a Jerusalem Post article...

The returns from traditional Likud strongholds among the Negev development towns sealed the fate of Likud shoe-ins. In the impoverished southern towns of Yeruham and Ofakim, Likud received 6.8 and 10% respectively. These registered Likud towns, granted their previous patron party with 30 and 32% in the 2003 elections, returning Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to a second term in office.

Labor strategist Eitan Cabel proudly announced Wednesday morning that Labor had defeated Likud and claimed victory in the traditional Likud strongholds of Shlomi and Kiriyat Shmona.

In Tel Aviv and Haifa, Likud received only 8% of the votes. Labor Chairman Amir Peretz's hometown of Sderot gave Likud a mere 9.9%, as opposed to the 40% that the party received in the 2003 elections. On the other hand, Labor garnered 25% of the vote.

All was not rosy on the Labor front, however, as the left-center party saw its support chipping away in its traditional kibbutz strongholds. At Deganya A - a kibbutz on the southern shore of Lake Kinneret - Labor lost 5% compared to the 2003 elections, when the party carried the kibbutz with 59.1% of the vote. Kadima finished a distant second place with 16.3%, and Meretz third, with 10.2% of the vote in a sector generally viewed as friendly for the left-wing party.

The Green Leaf Party enjoyed a rare burst of support at the kibbutz, gaining 3% of votes. Had the party polled similarly nationwide, two Knesset seats would have been reserved for the advocates of legalization of marijuana.

While turnout was low nationwide, including in the development towns, exceptionally low turnout rates were recorded among settlers, who usually have a high rate of electoral mobilization. The NU-NRP bloc, recognized as representing the settlers, sank from 13 mandates to 9.

The lowest rates were found among the Beduin community in the south, where voter turnout hovered around 30%.

In contrast, the haredi communities of Modi'in Ilit and Beit El recorded over 90% turnout, far above the national average.

In Jerusalem, United Torah Judaism, the Ashkenazi haredi party, received 18.6% of the city's vote, and its Sephardi counterpart, Shas, took second place with 15.1%. Kadima polled close behind, with 14.5% of the Jerusalemite vote. The national religious front, NU-NRP, followed close behind with 13.5%, while Labor and Likud polled almost identically, gaining 10 and 10.4% respectively in the traditionally right-wing capital city.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #36 on: March 29, 2006, 08:02:10 AM »

I'm wondering where the data are coming from... the official sites (Central Election Committee, Knesset) have no results data whatsoever. The Wiki doesn't state a source. (I was lokking for detailed regional results.)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #37 on: March 29, 2006, 08:09:46 AM »

I'm wondering where the data are coming from... the official sites (Central Election Committee, Knesset) have no results data whatsoever. The Wiki doesn't state a source. (I was lokking for detailed regional results.)

Presumably it came from the count then. It would be nice if the whole lot was published...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #38 on: March 29, 2006, 08:22:32 AM »

I'm wondering where the data are coming from... the official sites (Central Election Committee, Knesset) have no results data whatsoever. The Wiki doesn't state a source. (I was lokking for detailed regional results.)

Presumably it came from the count then. It would be nice if the whole lot was published...
It's of course possible that there are official press releases and they're just not putting them on the net ...
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ag
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« Reply #39 on: March 29, 2006, 09:56:01 AM »

Would have been interesting to see how Kadima would've fared had Sharon not had his stroke, but alas, alas.

Anyhow, I assume we're looking at a Kadima-Labor coalition government?

Kadima-Labor-Shas-Pensioners government seems likely. Possibly - but not definitely - supported by Meretz.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #40 on: March 29, 2006, 12:21:39 PM »

WHat does Haredi mean? And what does United Torah Judaism stand for? These are the moderately ultra-religious groups right? Tongue
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M
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« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2006, 02:18:25 PM »

Netanyahu's economic policies definitely hurt him, and Peretz was able to pull Sephardim who never would have voted for, say, Peres, Barak, or Vilnai. But he also lost votes on the right, to Israelis who felt that a vote for Likud was a cote for "who knows what?" after the surprising centrist premiership of Ariel Sharon.

Gustaf, "Hareidim" are the super-religious: throw rocks at cars on the sabbath; women must always wear long sleeves, long pants, and if married, cover their heads; and many of them are not thrilled with the existence of a non-Messianic state of Israel (some except it as a fact on the ground, but prefer that it be a rabbinic-led theocracy; i.e., democracy is a "Christian" or "post-Christian" system of government). UTJ is the Ashkenazic hareidi bloc, Shas the Sephardi.

The problem with Shas is that their chair, Eli Yishai, may a harsh anti-pullout statement prior to the elections. And whatever its social agenda, this will be the government of final borders. The flipside is that 86 year old Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef, the party's "spiritual leader", has seen the party's coffers drain after their first three years in the opposition after thirty in every government, Left or Right. He wants in at any cost, and if he decides he really doesn't like Yishai, he can destroy his career forever on a whim. Most Shasniks really want to see their previous chair, hyper-corrrupt Aryeh Deri, return anyway; Yishai is seen as a poor stand-in.

Another fill-in-the-gap party is Yisrael Beitenu, but they made a last minute anti-pullout statement as well. Avigdor Lieberman, the party chair, then immediately predicted that Olmert would drop his pro-pullout rhetoric post-election. This is either bad posturing or a total misreading of the situation. We'll see who changes his tune first.

The final potential combination: Kadima+Labor+Pensioners+UTJ=61, the bare minimum. The added attraction is that UTJ refuses to sit in government, so you don't have to give 'em ministries ambitious Kadimites and Laborites are eying, but since 1952 they've often gotten cushy Knesset position (such as the Finance Committee chairmanship) in exchange for their support. Plus,  they supported Sharon on Gaza disengagement (though the West Bank, which even Labor calls "Judea and Samaria", is much more historically Jewish). It's really up to their rabbis.

Meretz? I don't know. With four seats they don't actually make or break any coalition. They can be assumed to support the government in the Knesset, so including them in the government seems like a waste of a good ministry or two. But if Peretz wants Meretz, it'll probably happen.

Before anyone asks, the Arab parties are absolutely taboo for everyone in Israel. Israeli wonks speak of a "Jewish majority" of 61, and that's what Olmert needs.

So it's all about who cracks first. If no one does, we've got deadlock, and in Israel that means an unworkable coalition and, soon, new elections.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #42 on: March 29, 2006, 07:55:18 PM »


Don't forget the smaller parties - these are important.


Too important. I don't like the idea of mainstream parties being beholden to the fringe. I wonder what the results would be under FPTP (simple plurality)

Apparently, the major battle now is between Kadima and Labor as to who gets the Treasury

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ag
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« Reply #43 on: March 29, 2006, 08:11:44 PM »


[/quote]

Too important. I don't like the idea of mainstream parties being beholden to the fringe. I wonder what the results would be under FPTP (simple plurality)

[/quote]

Depending on gerrymandering, it would be something like this:

35-50 Rightwig party ("Likud")
35-50 Leftwing party ("Labour")
10-20 Haredi Party
5-20 Arab Party

The party system wouldn't even be the same. In Haredi (resp. Arab) districts the Haredi (resp. Arabs) would be elected, essentially, unopposed. Elsewhere, there would be a competition between 1 rightwing and 1 leftwing party, and this is how it would look nearly always. I am not even sure Sharon would have dared to launch Kadima, but if he did, it could have replaced "Likud".
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ag
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« Reply #44 on: March 30, 2006, 04:14:24 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2006, 04:26:00 PM by ag »

The complete results are in, and they are somewhat different from the ones announced earlier. The difference comes from computing the vote of the active duty military and Israeli diplomats abroad. Given that it was a military vote it is surprising that it went more to the left - but that's Israel. The unsurprising part is that the Haredi and the Arabs did a bit worse as a result - they don't serve in the Army.

Here is the final distribution of seats (in brackets the difference w/ the original count; second bracket the change from the outgoing Knesset)

1. Kadima 29 (+1) (+15)
2. Labor 20 (0) (-1)
3-4. Likud 12 (+1) (-17)
3-4. Shas 12 (-1) (+1)
5. Yisrael Beiteinu 11 (-1) (+8)
6. National Union - National Religious Party 9 (0) (-1)
7. Pensioners 7 (0) (+7)
8. United Torah Judaism 6 (0) (+1)
9. Meretz 5 (+1) (0)
10-12. Ra'am-Ta'al 3 (-1) (0)
10-12. Hadash (Communists) 3 (0) (+1)
10-12. Balad 3 (0) (0)

The final count adjustment does affect the coalition calculus. Assuming that Kadima, Labor and Pensioners are certain to be part of a coalition (56 seats total), there are now 3 possibilities for the 4th party to reach the majority of 61 seats: as before both Shas (68 seats total) and  UTJ (62 seats total) could work. But now so also does Meretz (61 seats total) - until now the coalition w/ Meretz would have only given 59 seats.

This last change is especially significant, since it does guarantee a "Zionist Majority" for withdrawal from the West Bank, even if the religious parties vote against. Of course, w/ the support of the "non-Zionist" - mainly, Arab - MKs the pullout would get 70 votes out of 120, but the important thing in Israeli terms is that 61 "Zionist" - mainly, Jewish - MK's vote "yes".

Some other statistics on the new Knesset (from the Haaretz). Out of 120 MKs there are (in brackets compared w/ last Knesset):

16 women (-2)

73 Ashkenazim (European Jewish origin, not including those with Iberian ancestry)
34 Other Jewish (Mideastern and North African, including the Iberian-ancestry Sefardim)
13 Arabs (+3) (since Hadash will have 2 Arab and 1 Jewish MK, it means 5 Arabs get in on the Zionist party slates)

34 Ultra-Orthodox (+4)

18 Ph.D. holders and/or those w/ the title of Professor (I believe, "Professor" title is weightier there, then this side of the Atlantic). Interestingly, 6 of these are from Kadima, 3 From Labour and 2 each from Hadash and Balad. I guess, the other 5 are from 5 distinct factions.

14 MKs are former senior officers in the military

8 MKs are settlers on the territories (4 from the National Union-NRP, 3 from Yisrael Beiteinu and 1 from Kadima).
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ag
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« Reply #45 on: March 30, 2006, 05:45:14 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2006, 08:09:45 PM by ag »

Here is the list of elected MK's in the order of their position on each slate (assuming none of these decide to cede their seat to those lower on the least):

(w) means woman (a) means Arab. By the way, either Haaretz overstates the number of Arabs, or I couldn't identify 2 of them as such. Of the three Arabs elected from Zionist parties that I could identify, 2 are Druze.

Kadima:

1. Ehud Olmert
2. Shimon Peres
3. Tzipi Livni (w)
4. Meer Sheetrit
5. Avi Dichter
6. Marina Solodkin (w)
7. Haim Ramon
8. Shaul Mofaz
9. Tzachi Hanegbi
10. Abraham Hirchson
11. Uriel Reichman
12. Gideon Ezra
13. Ronnie Bar-On
14. Dalia Itzik (w)
15. Ze'ev Boim
16. Jacob Edery
17. Ze'ev Elkin
18. Majalli Whbee (a - Druze)
19. Ruhama Avraham (w)
20. Menachem Ben Sasson
21. Shlomo Breznitz
22. Eli Aflalo
23. David Tal
24. Avigdor Yitzhaki
25. Ronit Tirosh (w)
26. Othniel Shneller
27. Michael Nudelman
28. Amira Dotan (w)
29. Yoel Hasson

Labor-Meimad

1. Amir Peretz
2. Itzhak Herzog
3. Ophir Pines-Paz
4. Avishai Braverman
5. Yuli Tamir (w)
6. Ami Ayalon
7. Eitan Cabel
8. Benjamin Ben-Eliezer
9. Shelly Yachimovich (w)
10. Michael Melchior
11. Matan Vilnai
12. Collette Avital (w)
13. Ephraim Sneh
14. Danny Yatom
15. Nadia Hilo (w)
16. Shalom Simhon
17. Orit Noked
18. Yoram Marciano
19. Raleb Majadele (a)
20. Watnan Shib (a - Druze)

Likud

1. Benjami Netanyahu
2. Silvan Shalom
3. Moshe Kahlon
4. Gilad Erdan
5. Gideon Sa'ar
6. Michael Eitan
7. Reuven Rivlin
8. Dan Naveh
9. Yuval Steinitz
10. Limor Livnat (w)
11. Natan Sharansky
12. Yisrael Katz

Shas

1. Eliyahu Yishai
2. Yitzhak Cohen
3. Amnon Cohen
4. Meshulam Nahari
5. Ariel Attias
6. Shlomo Benizri
7. David Azoulay
8. Yitzhak Vaknin
9. Nissim Zeev
10. Yakov Margi
11. Emil Amsalem
12. Avraham Michaeli

Yisrael Beiteinu

1. Avigdor Liberman
2. Yuri Shtern
3. Edvi Yisrael Hasson
4. Yosef Shegal
5. Esterina Tratman (w)
6. Stess Misezhnikov
7. Sofa Landver (w)
8. Yitzhak Aharon-Ahoronovich
9. Robert Iltov
10. Alex Miller
11. Lea Shemtov (w)

Ichud Leumi – Mafdal (NU-NRP)

1. Binyamin Elon
2. Zevulun Orlev
3. Zvi Hendel
4. Effie Eitam
5. Nissan Slomiansky
6. Yitzhak Levy
7. Eliahu Gabbay
8. Arieh Eldad
9. Uri Yehuda-Ariel

Gil – Pensioners
1. Eitan Pentman Rephael
2. Yaakov Ben-Yizri
3. Moshe Sharoni
4. Yitzhak Ziv
5. Yitzhak Galanti
6. Elhanan Glazer
7. Sarah Marom (w?)
 
Torah and Shabat Judaism (UTJ)
1. Yakov Litzman
2. Avraham Ravitz
3. Meir Porush
4. Moshe Gani
5. Shmuel Halpert
6. Yaakov Cohen

Meretz
1. Yossi Beilin
2. Chaim Oron
3. Ran Cohen
4. Zahava Gal-On (w)
5. Avshalom Vilan

United Arab List – Arab Renewal (Arab, in part Islamist; Tibi is, essentially, an indpendent, who used to ally w/ Hadash, but this time Communists forced his removal from that list)
1. Ibrahim Tzartzur (a)
2. Ahmad Tibi (a)
3. Tala El-Sana (a)

Hadash (Communist Party is the major component; bi-communal, non-Zionist)

1. Mohamad Barakeh (a)
2. Hanna Swaid  (a)
3. Dov Khenin
(note: Dov Khenin is a Jewish MK from what is almost universally considered an “Arab” party – in their top 14 list I see at least 3 or 4 more Jewish names; unlike the webpage of, say, Balad, the default page of Hadash is in Hebrew, not in Arabic)

Balad (National Democratic Assembley – Arab, secular)

1. Azmi Bishara (a)
2. Jamal Zahalka (a)
3. Wasil Taha (a)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #46 on: March 31, 2006, 09:11:33 AM »

Do the Haredi parties not believe in passive voting rights for women?

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WMS
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« Reply #47 on: March 31, 2006, 01:53:00 PM »

Interesting election, and it went pretty much as I wanted it to. Smiley And instead of wondering what the results would've been under FPTP...how about under a German-level threshold of 5%? Wink
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ag
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« Reply #48 on: March 31, 2006, 02:00:28 PM »

Actually, seems like the horsetrading is going even more interesting. Olmert wants Yisrael Beiteinu in the coalition, while Likud is considering proposing Labor's Amir Peretz for the Premiership to bloc Olmert (if Shas, Likud, Meretz and Pensioners propose Peretz, Olmert won't be able to form a government - in fact, Peretz would have more supporters then Olmert and the President might have to call on him, not on Olmert). So, we might have an unexpected coalition there.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #49 on: April 02, 2006, 07:49:36 AM »

Interesting election, and it went pretty much as I wanted it to. Smiley And instead of wondering what the results would've been under FPTP...how about under a German-level threshold of 5%? Wink
Wait a sec...
all I can tell you without looking (since I've checked that already) is that under Hare-Niemeyer, Kadima, Avoda and Likud would have a seat less each, and Gil, United Arab List and Hadash one seat more. Wink

Frankly, I can't imagine a 5% threshold getting passed in Israel - I can't imagine an Israeli government trying to force the Ashkenazi Haredim out of parliament. (they took around 4.5 IIRC)
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