Israeli Election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sharon has just called for new elections. Pretty soon we'll see the biggest realignment in Israeli politics since Labour was united and Likud formed in the late '60's/early '70's with Sharon almost certain to leave Likud and form a new centrist party of some sort. I'm told that polls have a new Sharon-led centrist party even with Labour (which with a new leader and a return to it's Socialist roots is polling a lot better than the terrible 19 seats it won last election) with a Sharon-less Likud in third.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPIEGEL Online now reports that 14 (out of 40) Likud MP's and five of Sharon's cabinet members are planning to join his new party.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,386018,00.html (in German)




EDIT:

It seems Sharon's party will be named "Ahrayut Leumit" (or "National Responsibility" in English).

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1132475592798&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[Harry Hayfield]

How is the Knesset elected?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How is the Knesset elected?

National list PR; % of votes = % of seats.

[Middle-aged Europe]

How is the Knesset elected?

National list PR; % of votes = % of seats.

I've read that they have an election threshold of 2% similar to the 5%-clause in Germany (a party has to receive at least 2% of the national votes to get seats by proportional representation). Originally, this has been only a 1%-clause, which was subsequently raised to 1.5% and then 2.0% in recent years.

http://www.knesset.gov.il/description/eng/eng_mimshal_beh.htm

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'm normally against a threshold, but a higher one in Israel isn't a bad idea, since in the past it resulted in all sorts of wacko nutjob parties getting in with about 1.1% of the vote. Hell, even Kahane served in the Knesset at one point.

[minionofmidas]

The notion of a centrist party led by Sharon ... yeah well, I still find it hard to wrap my mind around that.

[they don't love you like i love you]

The notion of a centrist party led by Sharon ... yeah well, I still find it hard to wrap my mind around that.

This party will probably be more like the UAC than a true centrist party, especially if Peres joins like rumored. But hey, anything to get Likud out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently Peres is about to announce that he's leaving Labour

[Democratic Hawk]

How is the Knesset elected?

National list PR; % of votes = % of seats.

The most putrid of voting systems

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Yes, Peres has quit the Labour Party to campaign for Sharon's new centrist Kadima party although it is believed that he won't join it. In a Sharon-led government, he is set to responsible for development in Galilee and the Negev

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1359176

Peres said he was supporting Sharon because he had the best chance of restarting the peace process with the Palestinians

"This has not been an easy decision for me, but I found myself faced with the contradiction between the party of which I am a member, and the requirements of the political situation," Peres said.

"Without ignoring the deep connection that I have to the party's historical path and its members, I must prefer the more urgent and greater consideration … My party activity has come to an end."

However, the Labour Party (according to The Sunday Times ) announced they had secured 25,000 new members following Peretz's election as leader

Meanwhile, Likud seems to be on the brink of collapse http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3177094,00.html

Dave

P.S. I never knew that Peres is a first cousin of Lauren Bacall

[TB]

It going to interesting whether Sharon will form a new coalition with Labor or Likud. Likud will probably be side-lined as Netanyahu takes control of the party, put also the Labor party's new leftist course seem to have moved them away from Sharon.

[they don't love you like i love you]

How is the Knesset elected?

National list PR; % of votes = % of seats.

The most putrid of voting systems

Dave

I like it, but by far the worst is the way Japan does it (or used to, I'm not sure if they switched.) That's the only thing that could possibly make FPTP look good.

The way it is is that you have multiple-member districts (I think it's 4 apeice) and each voter has only one vote. The top 4 vote getters win. So the only thing that matters is being the party best at coordinating tactical voters. No wonder the LDP can't be beaten.

[jaichind]

See

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/648317.html

Sharon's move to create a new party might just be a scheme to get more votes between himself and Likud.

[minionofmidas]

How is the Knesset elected?

National list PR; % of votes = % of seats.

The most putrid of voting systems

Dave

I like it, but by far the worst is the way Japan does it (or used to, I'm not sure if they switched.) That's the only thing that could possibly make FPTP look good.

The way it is is that you have multiple-member districts (I think it's 4 apeice) and each voter has only one vote. The top 4 vote getters win. So the only thing that matters is being the party best at coordinating tactical voters. No wonder the LDP can't be beaten.

Not the current system ... that's bad too though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FPTP in multi-seat constituencies is close to being the worst system IMO; best example is the City ward in Bradford (contains the city centre, the university and a lot of low income housing populated mainly by Kashmiris. The council has been trying to get the area to move upmarket for years, but no one with money wants to move to Bradford. Which is kinda odd as the cost of living is very low and the city is still a major manufacturing centre) where (note; this was a low turnout election) Labour won the most votes but the Tories took 2 out of the 3 seats (with Labour getting the other one) as two of the Tory candidates were Kashmiris and big in the local Biradari's. Luckily MBC's only use this system after a rewarding; until the next one it'll be one seat from each ward up each election, which means that both "Tory" councillers are probably gonners.

[WMS]

IIRC the FPTP in Multi-Seat Districts used to pop in the U.S. as well, under the name "Elected At-Large". It was every bit as bad as you might expect, and is why Single-Member Districts were pushed so hard here - they were actually the better choice. I've read somewhere it was in the 1830s or 1840s that there was a huge debate in the U.S. Congress over this issue, with some of the same arguments I've read here.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the elections will be held tomorrow.

The most recent polls showed Kadima between 33 and 37 seats, Labor between 17 and 21 seats, and Likud between 12 and 16 seats.

Best chances of finishing fourth (or even getting ahead of Likud) have Yisrael Beytenu (between 7 and 15), Shas (between 9 and 11), and the joint list of the National Union and the National Religious Party (between 9 and 12).

[they don't love you like i love you]

So what type of government will we see? Not enough seats for a Kadima-Labour coalition. Could Shinui or that new splinter party of Shinui join in?

[ag]

So what type of government will we see? Not enough seats for a Kadima-Labour coalition. Could Shinui or that new splinter party of Shinui join in?

As far as I know, Shiui doesn't have much chance entering Knesset at this point.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So what type of government will we see? Not enough seats for a Kadima-Labour coalition. Could Shinui or that new splinter party of Shinui join in?

As far as I know, Shiui doesn't have much chance entering Knesset at this point.

Exactly, Shinui is pretty much dead.


These are the complete numbers for all parties. A few new polls were just released today, therefore some minor differences to the numbers I posted earlier. Note that Israeli opinion polls work with seats and not percentages:

Kadima 33-37
Labour 17-21
Likud 12-17
Yisrael Beytenu 7-15
National Union + National Religious Party 8-12
Shas 8-12
Arab parties 7-9
United Torah Judaism 5-7
Meretz-Yachad 5-6
Tafnit 0-5
Ale Yarok 0-2
Gil 0-2
Greens 0-1
Shinui 0

I'm not familiar with all of those parties. Some were probably just newly founded.

Considering that territorial concessions to the Palestinians is part of Kadima's platform, a coalition with Likud or any other party of the far right seems rather unlikely. So, Kadima + Labour should be the logical outcome. But as BRTD pointed out, those two would need additional partners for a majority in the Knesset. While Likud is too hawkish/anti-Palestinian for Kadima's taste, something like Meretz-Yachad might be too dovish/"pro-Palestinian" for them. So, I guess we will have to wait and see.

[WMS]

I'll be watching this one with great interest - I've long felt Israel needed a strong centrist party.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'll be watching this one with great interest - I've long felt Israel needed a strong centrist party.

Its so sad to see Shinui drop off - but I guess Kadima has redeemed their mission.

[they don't love you like i love you]

What about Hetz (the part that split from Shinui)? They look just like Shinui so far and are probably closer to Kadima than anyone else actually.

[Blerpiez]

Polls suggest Shinui and Hetz will both not get enough votes to enter parliament.  The likely coalition partner for Kadima and Labour is Shas, a religious party with no firm position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.