Israeli Election

[ag]

So what type of government will we see? Not enough seats for a Kadima-Labour coalition. Could Shinui or that new splinter party of Shinui join in?

As far as I know, Shiui doesn't have much chance entering Knesset at this point.

[ag]

With 96% of the vote counted:

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1143498755311&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Kadima 28

Labor 20

Shas 13

Israel Beitenu 12

Likud 11

Dave

Don't forget the smaller parties - these are important.

www.haaretz.com

National Union - National Religious Party 9
Pensioners 7
United Torah Judaism 6
Meretz 4
Arab Parties altogether 10

As an aside, I really hate this "Arab Parties" thing: even a relatively leftist Israeli paper like Haaretz behaves as if there were no difference between the "Arab Parties" - why are then there 3 or 4 of these? Not to forget the "minor fact", that Hadash isn't even an "Arab Party": they are bicommunal Communists, get some Jewish vote, and almost always get a Jewish candidate high enough on the list to become an MK (for many years it used to be Tamar Gozanski, then Dov Chernin, I don't know who is on their slate now). It's a classic example of Zionist selective myopia: they really, really, don't see arabs.

[ag]

Would have been interesting to see how Kadima would've fared had Sharon not had his stroke, but alas, alas.

Anyhow, I assume we're looking at a Kadima-Labor coalition government?

Kadima-Labor-Shas-Pensioners government seems likely. Possibly - but not definitely - supported by Meretz.

[ag]

[/quote]

Too important. I don't like the idea of mainstream parties being beholden to the fringe. I wonder what the results would be under FPTP (simple plurality)

[/quote]

Depending on gerrymandering, it would be something like this:

35-50 Rightwig party ("Likud")
35-50 Leftwing party ("Labour")
10-20 Haredi Party
5-20 Arab Party

The party system wouldn't even be the same. In Haredi (resp. Arab) districts the Haredi (resp. Arabs) would be elected, essentially, unopposed. Elsewhere, there would be a competition between 1 rightwing and 1 leftwing party, and this is how it would look nearly always. I am not even sure Sharon would have dared to launch Kadima, but if he did, it could have replaced "Likud".

[ag]

The complete results are in, and they are somewhat different from the ones announced earlier. The difference comes from computing the vote of the active duty military and Israeli diplomats abroad. Given that it was a military vote it is surprising that it went more to the left - but that's Israel. The unsurprising part is that the Haredi and the Arabs did a bit worse as a result - they don't serve in the Army.

Here is the final distribution of seats (in brackets the difference w/ the original count; second bracket the change from the outgoing Knesset)

1. Kadima 29 (+1) (+15)
2. Labor 20 (0) (-1)
3-4. Likud 12 (+1) (-17)
3-4. Shas 12 (-1) (+1)
5. Yisrael Beiteinu 11 (-1) (+8)
6. National Union - National Religious Party 9 (0) (-1)
7. Pensioners 7 (0) (+7)
8. United Torah Judaism 6 (0) (+1)
9. Meretz 5 (+1) (0)
10-12. Ra'am-Ta'al 3 (-1) (0)
10-12. Hadash (Communists) 3 (0) (+1)
10-12. Balad 3 (0) (0)

The final count adjustment does affect the coalition calculus. Assuming that Kadima, Labor and Pensioners are certain to be part of a coalition (56 seats total), there are now 3 possibilities for the 4th party to reach the majority of 61 seats: as before both Shas (68 seats total) and  UTJ (62 seats total) could work. But now so also does Meretz (61 seats total) - until now the coalition w/ Meretz would have only given 59 seats.

This last change is especially significant, since it does guarantee a "Zionist Majority" for withdrawal from the West Bank, even if the religious parties vote against. Of course, w/ the support of the "non-Zionist" - mainly, Arab - MKs the pullout would get 70 votes out of 120, but the important thing in Israeli terms is that 61 "Zionist" - mainly, Jewish - MK's vote "yes".

Some other statistics on the new Knesset (from the Haaretz). Out of 120 MKs there are (in brackets compared w/ last Knesset):

16 women (-2)

73 Ashkenazim (European Jewish origin, not including those with Iberian ancestry)
34 Other Jewish (Mideastern and North African, including the Iberian-ancestry Sefardim)
13 Arabs (+3) (since Hadash will have 2 Arab and 1 Jewish MK, it means 5 Arabs get in on the Zionist party slates)

34 Ultra-Orthodox (+4)

18 Ph.D. holders and/or those w/ the title of Professor (I believe, "Professor" title is weightier there, then this side of the Atlantic). Interestingly, 6 of these are from Kadima, 3 From Labour and 2 each from Hadash and Balad. I guess, the other 5 are from 5 distinct factions.

14 MKs are former senior officers in the military

8 MKs are settlers on the territories (4 from the National Union-NRP, 3 from Yisrael Beiteinu and 1 from Kadima).

[ag]

Here is the list of elected MK's in the order of their position on each slate (assuming none of these decide to cede their seat to those lower on the least):

(w) means woman (a) means Arab. By the way, either Haaretz overstates the number of Arabs, or I couldn't identify 2 of them as such. Of the three Arabs elected from Zionist parties that I could identify, 2 are Druze.

Kadima:

1. Ehud Olmert
2. Shimon Peres
3. Tzipi Livni (w)
4. Meer Sheetrit
5. Avi Dichter
6. Marina Solodkin (w)
7. Haim Ramon
8. Shaul Mofaz
9. Tzachi Hanegbi
10. Abraham Hirchson
11. Uriel Reichman
12. Gideon Ezra
13. Ronnie Bar-On
14. Dalia Itzik (w)
15. Ze'ev Boim
16. Jacob Edery
17. Ze'ev Elkin
18. Majalli Whbee (a - Druze)
19. Ruhama Avraham (w)
20. Menachem Ben Sasson
21. Shlomo Breznitz
22. Eli Aflalo
23. David Tal
24. Avigdor Yitzhaki
25. Ronit Tirosh (w)
26. Othniel Shneller
27. Michael Nudelman
28. Amira Dotan (w)
29. Yoel Hasson

Labor-Meimad

1. Amir Peretz
2. Itzhak Herzog
3. Ophir Pines-Paz
4. Avishai Braverman
5. Yuli Tamir (w)
6. Ami Ayalon
7. Eitan Cabel
8. Benjamin Ben-Eliezer
9. Shelly Yachimovich (w)
10. Michael Melchior
11. Matan Vilnai
12. Collette Avital (w)
13. Ephraim Sneh
14. Danny Yatom
15. Nadia Hilo (w)
16. Shalom Simhon
17. Orit Noked
18. Yoram Marciano
19. Raleb Majadele (a)
20. Watnan Shib (a - Druze)

Likud

1. Benjami Netanyahu
2. Silvan Shalom
3. Moshe Kahlon
4. Gilad Erdan
5. Gideon Sa'ar
6. Michael Eitan
7. Reuven Rivlin
8. Dan Naveh
9. Yuval Steinitz
10. Limor Livnat (w)
11. Natan Sharansky
12. Yisrael Katz

Shas

1. Eliyahu Yishai
2. Yitzhak Cohen
3. Amnon Cohen
4. Meshulam Nahari
5. Ariel Attias
6. Shlomo Benizri
7. David Azoulay
8. Yitzhak Vaknin
9. Nissim Zeev
10. Yakov Margi
11. Emil Amsalem
12. Avraham Michaeli

Yisrael Beiteinu

1. Avigdor Liberman
2. Yuri Shtern
3. Edvi Yisrael Hasson
4. Yosef Shegal
5. Esterina Tratman (w)
6. Stess Misezhnikov
7. Sofa Landver (w)
8. Yitzhak Aharon-Ahoronovich
9. Robert Iltov
10. Alex Miller
11. Lea Shemtov (w)

Ichud Leumi – Mafdal (NU-NRP)

1. Binyamin Elon
2. Zevulun Orlev
3. Zvi Hendel
4. Effie Eitam
5. Nissan Slomiansky
6. Yitzhak Levy
7. Eliahu Gabbay
8. Arieh Eldad
9. Uri Yehuda-Ariel

Gil – Pensioners
1. Eitan Pentman Rephael
2. Yaakov Ben-Yizri
3. Moshe Sharoni
4. Yitzhak Ziv
5. Yitzhak Galanti
6. Elhanan Glazer
7. Sarah Marom (w?)
 
Torah and Shabat Judaism (UTJ)
1. Yakov Litzman
2. Avraham Ravitz
3. Meir Porush
4. Moshe Gani
5. Shmuel Halpert
6. Yaakov Cohen

Meretz
1. Yossi Beilin
2. Chaim Oron
3. Ran Cohen
4. Zahava Gal-On (w)
5. Avshalom Vilan

United Arab List – Arab Renewal (Arab, in part Islamist; Tibi is, essentially, an indpendent, who used to ally w/ Hadash, but this time Communists forced his removal from that list)
1. Ibrahim Tzartzur (a)
2. Ahmad Tibi (a)
3. Tala El-Sana (a)

Hadash (Communist Party is the major component; bi-communal, non-Zionist)

1. Mohamad Barakeh (a)
2. Hanna Swaid  (a)
3. Dov Khenin
(note: Dov Khenin is a Jewish MK from what is almost universally considered an “Arab” party – in their top 14 list I see at least 3 or 4 more Jewish names; unlike the webpage of, say, Balad, the default page of Hadash is in Hebrew, not in Arabic)

Balad (National Democratic Assembley – Arab, secular)

1. Azmi Bishara (a)
2. Jamal Zahalka (a)
3. Wasil Taha (a)

[ag]

Actually, seems like the horsetrading is going even more interesting. Olmert wants Yisrael Beiteinu in the coalition, while Likud is considering proposing Labor's Amir Peretz for the Premiership to bloc Olmert (if Shas, Likud, Meretz and Pensioners propose Peretz, Olmert won't be able to form a government - in fact, Peretz would have more supporters then Olmert and the President might have to call on him, not on Olmert). So, we might have an unexpected coalition there.

[ag]

Some more news.  First, it seems in a minor counting mishap, hundreds ov votes in Arab villages in the north were assigned to a small right-wing Jewish faction (Herut) instead of the Arab Ra'am-Ta'al. Since the latter party is only 85 votes short of the 4th seat, they are appealing for a correction. In case this is accepted, the extra seat would come from Labor, reducing their tally to 19.

In another news, the ultra-rightwing NU-NRP is, apparently, planning to support Labor's Amir Peretz for the PM. Likud and Meretz are still considering what to do.

[ag]

Ironically Labor's 20th seat holder is a Muslim Arab.

A Druze. A Druze is not a Muslim.

[ag]

Ironically Labor's 20th seat holder is a Muslim Arab.

A Druze. A Druze is not a Muslim.

They consider themselves to be Muslims, although most Muslims don't. Comparable to Mormons perhaps.

I have been trying to come up with a halfway decent analogy for the Druze.  That is a good one.  Thanks.

If I understand it right, not even that. They claim to consider themselves Muslims since they live in predominantly Muslim countries, but whether they actually would repeat the claim among themselves is far from clear. They are a lot further away from Islam than the Mormons are from Christianity, if I get it right - I don't think they can be described as followers of Mohammed in any strict sense.

[ag]

Ironically Labor's 20th seat holder is a Muslim Arab.

Right, he was a Druze. I confused him with Labor's seat 19, who IS Muslim.

Note that an ultra-Orthodox single faction is being formed between Shas and UTJ. This bloc would have 18 seats- one less than Labor. It could be excluded from a government that was even semi-pro-withdrawals by a Kadima-Labor-Pensioners-Beitenu bloc, at 64 seats.

A government w/ both Labor and Yisrael Beiteinu is a near impossibility: Labor would crack, probably, if not immediately, then pretty soon. Labor and the ultra-religious are a much better fit (and the ultra-religious are easier to pursuade to withdraw in a manner acceptable to labor).

[ag]

Seems indeed, Abas Zakur from the United Arab List (Ra'am Ta'al) is replacing Labor's Watnan Shib as MK.

In other news, both Labor's Peretz and Kadima's Olmert are under attack from their own sides, unhappy with Peretz's looking towards the ultra-right (Labor) and Olmert's dismissive attacks on Peretz and Labor (Kadima), which are perceived as complicating the formation of the only acceptable government. Furthermore, both Shas and Meretz have decided to support Olmert for PM before the President. In case of Meretz this is done explicitly despite their personal and ideological preference for Peretz, because they believe Peretz would only be able to form a government w/ the ultra-right, which is unacceptable to them.

[ag]

A lot of parties are asking for recounts. NRP believes in some settlements they've counted implausibly large numbers of votes for Shinui, furthermore (quote from Haaretz):

"The Yisrael Beiteinu party needs a mere 175 votes in order to secure an additional seat at Likud's expense. Likewise, Meretz is only 145 votes away from stealing a seat from Labor, while Shas needs approximately 770 votes to obtain a seat from Kadima."