Israeli Election

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPIEGEL Online now reports that 14 (out of 40) Likud MP's and five of Sharon's cabinet members are planning to join his new party.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,386018,00.html (in German)




EDIT:

It seems Sharon's party will be named "Ahrayut Leumit" (or "National Responsibility" in English).

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1132475592798&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[Middle-aged Europe]

How is the Knesset elected?

National list PR; % of votes = % of seats.

I've read that they have an election threshold of 2% similar to the 5%-clause in Germany (a party has to receive at least 2% of the national votes to get seats by proportional representation). Originally, this has been only a 1%-clause, which was subsequently raised to 1.5% and then 2.0% in recent years.

http://www.knesset.gov.il/description/eng/eng_mimshal_beh.htm

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the elections will be held tomorrow.

The most recent polls showed Kadima between 33 and 37 seats, Labor between 17 and 21 seats, and Likud between 12 and 16 seats.

Best chances of finishing fourth (or even getting ahead of Likud) have Yisrael Beytenu (between 7 and 15), Shas (between 9 and 11), and the joint list of the National Union and the National Religious Party (between 9 and 12).

[Middle-aged Europe]

So what type of government will we see? Not enough seats for a Kadima-Labour coalition. Could Shinui or that new splinter party of Shinui join in?

As far as I know, Shiui doesn't have much chance entering Knesset at this point.

Exactly, Shinui is pretty much dead.


These are the complete numbers for all parties. A few new polls were just released today, therefore some minor differences to the numbers I posted earlier. Note that Israeli opinion polls work with seats and not percentages:

Kadima 33-37
Labour 17-21
Likud 12-17
Yisrael Beytenu 7-15
National Union + National Religious Party 8-12
Shas 8-12
Arab parties 7-9
United Torah Judaism 5-7
Meretz-Yachad 5-6
Tafnit 0-5
Ale Yarok 0-2
Gil 0-2
Greens 0-1
Shinui 0

I'm not familiar with all of those parties. Some were probably just newly founded.

Considering that territorial concessions to the Palestinians is part of Kadima's platform, a coalition with Likud or any other party of the far right seems rather unlikely. So, Kadima + Labour should be the logical outcome. But as BRTD pointed out, those two would need additional partners for a majority in the Knesset. While Likud is too hawkish/anti-Palestinian for Kadima's taste, something like Meretz-Yachad might be too dovish/"pro-Palestinian" for them. So, I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tafnit at 5? Where did you see this number?

To be precise it was "4.5". I've decided this could mean 4 or 5. The source is something called "Geocartographia".