What party would you vote for in the next Israeli election? (user search)
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  What party would you vote for in the next Israeli election? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What party would you vote for in the next Israeli election?
#1
Likud
 
#2
National Responsibility
 
#3
Labour
 
#4
Shinui
 
#5
Shas
 
#6
National Union
 
#7
Yachad
 
#8
Mafdal
 
#9
Agudat Israel
 
#10
Degel HaTorah
 
#11
Hadash
 
#12
Balad
 
#13
Yisrael Ba'aliyah
 
#14
Balad
 
#15
Ra'am
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 33

Author Topic: What party would you vote for in the next Israeli election?  (Read 3370 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,719
United Kingdom


« on: November 22, 2005, 08:50:53 AM »

As an old fashioned British Labourite I would naturally be a Labour voter (even if only for emotional reasons last election...)

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No, Likud aren't far-right. On the right yes, and even more so now that the moderates are leaving, but they aren't actually calling for a Greater Israel or a halt to the peace process.

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No, they will certainly be centrists. You have to remember that in Israeli politics "left" and "right" refer to the peace process. For the past few decades bread-and-butter issues haven't really mattered so much, despite the depression. Most Israelis generally have moderately socialist views on economic issues and recent economic policies are pretty unpopular but don't split down left-right lines. The Ha'aretz newspaper generally takes an almost Thatcherite approach to economics for example.

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Not really accurate; the party ran a dove last election and came away with one of it's worst ever results (in fact it might have been it's worst ever result). Significantly the new leader didn't run based on the peace process; he ran on the economic depression and won because turnout in the Kibbutzes (Peres's traditional base) was low as there was no hawk to vote against. And he broke with Sharon for the same reason.

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Not at all; basically Secularists. More an anti-Shas party than anything else IIRC.

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A complicated party; ultra-orthodox but based around poorer immigrants from other middle eastern countries and so on. Usually the key coalition party.

The other parties don't really matter until after the election when they'll matter a lot.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,719
United Kingdom


« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2005, 09:04:40 AM »

New polls:

Ha'aretz-Dialog; Sharon 30, Labour 26, Likud 15
Yedioth Ahronoth/Dahaf; Sharon 33, Labour 26, Likud 12
Maariv/Teleseker; Sharon 30, Labour 26, Likud 15

For comparison the 2003 election results; Likud 40*, Labour 19, Shinui 15, Shas 11
For comparision the 1999 election results; Labour 26, Likud 19, Shas 17
For comparision the 1996 election results; Labour 34, Likud 32, Shas 10

*I think 40 is right; some small parties joined it immediately post-election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,719
United Kingdom


« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2005, 04:47:20 AM »

Number of seats; 19 seats usually means about 14% of the popular vote
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,719
United Kingdom


« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2005, 09:23:20 AM »

Pretty good, if it means both Labour and Sharon gaining on Likud

^^^

A drop from 40 to about 15 would probably be the largest fall in Israeli history (I'll have to check the Knesset website though).

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The strangest part is the drop from 1992 to 2003; from 44 seats to 19 in a decade, losing seats every election. The party lost touch with it's roots, forgot why it existed, didn't reach out to the new immigrants and paid the price.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,719
United Kingdom


« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2005, 09:28:48 AM »

Labour's raw vote:

1992; 906,810, 1996, 818,741, 1999 670,484, 2003 455,183

During this period the Israeli electorate grew by over a million
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