2012

[Cubby]

I used seven groups, but here you go:

This is the most likely map I have seen so far.  All things being equal though, I think New Jersey and Connecticut will be more competetive.

Why do you think Connecticut will be more competitive, Supersoulty? 2004 was a fluke because of security concerns, otherwise CT has been one of the biggest Dem-trending states in the country.

I think there is an over-all trend in the suburbs that everyone needs to watch for, and it is not an overtly political one.

As the cities have expanded, the central city has boomed, declined, and now, in many places (esspecially New York) is enjoying another boom period (it is now considered very fashionable to live in the city, if you can afford it).  At the same time, the suburbs have continued to balloon further out.  The inner-suburbs, which were once fashsionable in the 1920'-50's are now expieriencing many of the problems that were once associated with the Central City, because they lack the infrastructure and vast amounts of wealth the inner-cities enjoy, and many of the people who once lived in the Central City are now being pushed out of there by property values that are once again on the rise.

This includes both lower-middle class white families and urban minorities.  This trend is most noticable in places like Newark, Patterson and Camden, which have all seen rapid decline in the past 20 years.

If what I think will happen, eventually, happens, then all of the areas where this occures (New Jersey and Conn. being the biggest) will start to drift towards the GOP.  The reason is, Republicans have made rapid advances with the White middle-class (lower, middle and, to a lesser extent upper), thus, those areas, in particular will see a noticable trend as is.  However, there is more at work here.  The movement of high crime to the inner-ring suburbs will increase the pro-law and order/pro-populist sentiment of those living in the middle and outter ring areas, which will cause them to go more steadily Republican. 

Also, in the Northeast, there has been a long standing animosity between blacks who have been in their area since prior to the Great Depression, and those who are new comers.  The well-established blacks think (and rightly so in many cases) that "new-comers" are largely the cause of many of the problems in the black community.  I'm not just supposing here, this is a big issue in Erie, and else where.  There is a clear divide forming in the black community.  As more of these "established blacks" start to lose their anti-Republican prejudice, they will come to realize that they have quite a bit in common with the Republicans on many issues, most noticably social issues.

New Jersey and Conn. have all of the factors I mentioned, in abundance.  Thus, my prediction.

Thats a interesting theory. The issues within the black community may not apply to Connecticut at the present time, since we are very highly segregated by town. The overwhelming majority of blacks here (about 300,000 out of 3.5 Million) live in the 10 biggest cities. Even some of the inner suburbs are only 5% black. The housing costs will definetely become a factor though. The problems of the inner suburbs are currently more in effect in Nassau and Westchester counties (NY) than in Connecticut, since even our cities are small and to begin with.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

not good for the dems..

[War on Want]

Bump to look back and to post my own.

Now of course, I have the benefit of knowing the two possible choices to be president(I picked Obama by the way), but still looking back on some of these maps is kinda funny.

[Person Man]

I wonder what happens if McCain wins...

[War on Want]

I wonder what happens if McCain wins...

I can make a map for that too :

This is assuming a mediocre McCain presidency.

[KeyKeeper]

What do you think it would look like if Sen. McCain doesn't  run for another four years, and Gov(VP). Palin takes his place?

[Person Man]

I am guessing the same.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama wins, has average first term:

MCain wins, has average first term:

[Person Man]

My guesses at this time are-

Palin/Romney v. Warner/Sebelius

or

Obama/Biden v. Crist/Petreus

[DownWithTheLeft]

Simply a guess, but I think the states will look like this (this is w/o specific candidates):

[big bad fab]

I used seven groups, but here you go:

This old one looks pretty good.  Good call, TD.

Sure, except for Upper MidWest.
So, here's mine (without any specific candidate, and I used 7 groups, as it's impossible to have even groups):

[bhouston79]

2012 will not be a close election regardless of who wins this year.  Either the economy will turn around, in which case the new President's approval will soar, or the economy will continue to be sour, in which case the new President's approval will be in the dumps.  In either event look for a landslide in 2012.  And according to the most recent polls out, it is beginning to look like Obama will win this election comfortably as well (at least when compared to 2000 and 2004), although I don't think he will win it in a landslide.  With that said, I will make these predictions about 2012.  If Obama wins in November, and he has some success in his first term (i.e. the economy turns around & he has some legislative achievements), then look for his approval rating to exceed 60%.  In that event here's my prediction for 2012 assuming Obama wins in November:

Electoral Vote
Obama   497
GOP         41

Popular Vote
Obama   58%
GOP       41%

On the other hand, if Obama is unsuccesful, and the economy continues to sour throughout his term, look for his approval ratings to tank & the GOP to win in a rout.  Here's the map under such a scenario:

Electoral Vote
Obama  134
GOP      404

Popular Vote
Obama 43%
GOP     56%

If McCain pulls out an upset in November, my predictions for his chances in 2012 would be mirror images of my predictions for Obama, with the variable being whether or not McCain is able to succeed in the eyes of the American people.

[elcorazon]

solid dem
RHODE ISLAND
VERMONT
MASSACHUSETTS
CALIFORNIA
NEW YORK
ILLINOIS
DELAWARE
OREGON
HAWAII
MARYLAND
lean dem
MAINE
NEW JERSEY
CONNECTICUT
WASHINGTON
MINNESOTA
IOWA
MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
PENNSYLVANIA
NEW MEXICO
swing
OHIO
FLORIDA
NEVADA
VIRGINIA
COLORADO
MISSOURI
INDIANA
N. CAROLINA
N. HAMPSHIRE
W. VIRGINIA
lean rep
TENNESSEE
LOUISIANA
SOUTH CAROLINA
ARKANSAS
ARIZONA
GEORGIA
SOUTH DAKOTA
KENTUCKY
N. DAKOTA
MONTANA
solid rep
UTAH
IDAHO
WYOMING
ALABAMA
KANSAS
ALASKA
NEBRASKA
TEXAS
MISSISSIPPI
OKLAHOMA

[pbrower2a]

Obama wins, has average first term:

I see either Romney or Huckabee as the likely opponent, and which states vote which way depend upon who wins the GOP nomination:

Red --       Either Republican wins                      ( 36)
Blue --      Obama wins                                      (349)
Green --    Romney or Obama                            (  23)
Yellow --   Huckabee or Obama                          ( 93)
Gray --      real toss-ups, no matter who wins.  ( 24)

I could have shown maps of Huckabee vs. Obama and Romney vs. Obama... both are losing propositions for the Republican challenger because of the Blue firewall and the regional weaknesses of those two potential challengers. Huckabee has yet to show any ability to win outside the South, and Obama can win without the South. Romney has yet to show an ability to win in the South, and between the Blue firewall and any Obama wins in the South, Obama wins. Add the reds and greens (Huckabee is the GOP nominee... Obama 373+)  or the reds and yellows (Romney is the GOP nominee... 442+) and you get a landslide for Obama. 

It's far more interesting with Crist. See what I have to say about Crist's chances -- he will lose to Obama, but look good doing so, and be in good position to win in 2016:

Obama     300
Crist         238

Incumbency has its advantages, and Obama will have his fine campaign machine of 2008 intact, even if Obama doesn't do much campaigning. California Democrats will be swarming all over Nevada and Arizona, if not also Colorado, and Virginia has become more like New Jersey than like Alabama in its politics. 

Crist looks as if he could perform as the one who could beat the Democratic nominee of 2016 should it be an unelectable Joe Biden or the survivor of a knock-down, drag-out contest in the primaries that leaves a bad taste in the mouths of enough Democrats and independents. Note well that winning 238 electoral votes against a strong incumbent is impressive in its own right.

Palin? I think that her foot-in-the-mouth disease will knock her out early. Her rhetoric is absolutely dreadful. If she did win the GOP nomination she would energize the base and offend everyone else:

She could lose Texas, with a young, rapidly-urbanizing electorate and large minority populations. In 2008 she appealed to the base and lost all else. I see her losing early to Huckabee, whose voters fit roughly the same demographics, Romney, or Crist.

[tmthforu94]

Somewhat simple in colors. The darker the color, the more likely I predict it being safe. No toss-ups, since, that's sucky...

[Joe Republic]

Somewhat simple in colors. The darker the color, the more likely I predict it being safe. No toss-ups, since, that's sucky...

Wyoming was McCain's second best state.

[Daniel Z]

Most to least Dem
D.C
Vermont
Massachussets
Rhode Island
Hawaii
New York
Illinois
Maryland
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Washington
New Jersey
Maine
Pennsylvania
Michigan
New Hampshire
Oregon
Minnesota
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Nevada
Iowa
Virginia
Colorado
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Missouri
Ohio
West Virginia
Indiana
Montana
Georgia
Kentucky
South Dakota
North Dakota
Nebraska
Alaska
Arkansas
Texas
South Carolina
Mississippi
Louisiana
Tennessee
Kansas
Alabama
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
Oklahoma

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's a bit soon to say what will happen in the next four years. It depends probably to Obama economic results against crisis. However, I saw that his term began very well and the stimulous bill who was recently voted by the congress seems being able to improve economic situation. At least, I hope so.

So, here is my prediction, based only on past election results