Canada 2006: Predictions & Prediction-Aiding-Maps thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes he would have, as the riding was just the city of SSM. Finally, some gerrymandering in favour of the NDP!

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Strange really. IIRC the previous MP was fairly popular. Interestingly Soo on the other side of the water voted very narrowly for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

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Probably a factor even though it needn't be; NDP can do well in areas out West that aren't *exactly* strongholds of social liberalism. Depends what issues are stressed; which is where organisation comes into it...
It'll be interesting to see what % the NDP get in some of those ridings now that the Liberal incumbents have (in many cases) been ousted actually.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And it is done:


The pattern within the GTA is very interesting; Brampton is much more blue collar than I'd assumed, as are some of the York ridings. Toronto-Danforth also has an unusally high % for a downtown riding.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Brant County is initself an enitre riding. In Brant, which voted Liberal, we see an obvious urban/rural split. It's unfortunate that all of rural brant county is now in the same municipality, because I cant show any more detail than I have for rural Brant. As for Brantford, it was a split between the NDP and the Liberals, with the Liberals in the clear lead  though. Out in the Six Nations reserve, it voted Liberal fairly strongly, with the NDP in second  while the New Credit reserve voted NDP by one vote. Both reserves are in reality have the county boundary cutting through them, but for purposes of this map, I have included them in Brant County for their entirety, as they are both in the Brant riding in their entirety.

Very interesting; Brant is probably one of the most unpredictable ridings of this election methinks. How'd the Liberals and NDP do in the rural municipality?

[Hatman 🍁]

Brant County is initself an enitre riding. In Brant, which voted Liberal, we see an obvious urban/rural split. It's unfortunate that all of rural brant county is now in the same municipality, because I cant show any more detail than I have for rural Brant. As for Brantford, it was a split between the NDP and the Liberals, with the Liberals in the clear lead  though. Out in the Six Nations reserve, it voted Liberal fairly strongly, with the NDP in second  while the New Credit reserve voted NDP by one vote. Both reserves are in reality have the county boundary cutting through them, but for purposes of this map, I have included them in Brant County for their entirety, as they are both in the Brant riding in their entirety.

Very interesting; Brant is probably one of the most unpredictable ridings of this election methinks. How'd the Liberals and NDP do in the rural municipality?

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" had some polls where the NDP won, and some where the Liberals won, but most went Conservative. If only I knew where the polls were

As for your map, it is interesting to see the complete absence of blue collar workers in Ottawa Makes complete sense if you think about it.

[Hatman 🍁]

presenting my 3 colour map:



I'm willing to explain the key if it is confusing.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'm willing to explain the key if it is confusing.

It looks like something you'd see at a gay pride parade

Its a neat idea though - excellent for determining three-ways.

[Hatman 🍁]

three-ways.

That might be something you see at a gay pride parade too

[Filuwaúrdjan]

British Columbia

Lower Mainland

Vancouver Centre: NCF
Vancouver East: NDP S
Vancouver Kingsway: NCF
Vancouver Quadra: Lib S
Vancouver South: Lib SL
Burnaby-Douglas: NDP M
Burnaby-New Westminster: NCF
New Westminster-Coquitlam: NCF
North Vancouver: Lib SF
Richmond: Lib L
Delta-Richmond East: Con L
Surrey North: NDP L*
Newton-North Delta: NCF
Fleetwood-Port Kells: NCF
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale: NCF
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country: Lib SF*
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam: NCF
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission: NCF
Abbotsford: Con S
Langley: Con S
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon: Con S

Interior

Skeena-Bulkley Valley: NDP M
Prince George-Peace River: Con S
Cariboo-Prince George: Con L
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: Con M
Kootenay-Columbia: Con S
British Columbia Southern Interior: NDP SF*
North Okanagan-Shuswap: Con SL
Okanagan-Coquihalla: Con S
Kelowna-Lake Country: Con S

Vancouver Island

Vancouver Island North: NDP SF*
Nanaimo-Alberni: NCF
Nanaimo-Cowichan: NDP S
Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca: NCF
Saanich-Gulf Islands: NCF
Victoria: NDP SF*

These predictions can and will change

[Hatman 🍁]

What are your abbreviations again?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

[Gabu]

What are your abbreviations again?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=32508.msg734111#msg734111

[Hatman 🍁]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

I wish. I of course blame Mike Harris.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

I wish. I of course blame Mike Harris.

You guys have an even crazier local government setup than us!

[Hatman 🍁]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

I wish. I of course blame Mike Harris.

You guys have an even crazier local government setup than us!

The worst part is there are no parties in municipal elections

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

I wish. I of course blame Mike Harris.

You guys have an even crazier local government setup than us!

The worst part is there are no parties in municipal elections

By law?

[Hatman 🍁]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

I wish. I of course blame Mike Harris.

You guys have an even crazier local government setup than us!

The worst part is there are no parties in municipal elections

By law?

Heavens no, just by custom I guess. Well, there might be some sort of a law, actually. I do know the NDP tried to form a party in Toronto. You can find more about them here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

Lower Mainland triangle map

[Hatman 🍁]

My predictions for notable ridings:

Atlantic Canada

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour:       Liberal hold
Kings-Hants:            Liberal hold
South Shore-St. Margaret's:      Conservative hold
West Nova:            Liberal hold
Fredericton:            Liberal hold
Madawaska-Restigouche:         Liberal hold
Saint John:            Liberal hold
Tobique-Mactaquac:         Liberal hold
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe:      Liberal hold

Result: No change

Quebec
Saint-Maurice-Champlain:       BQ hold
Beauce:               BQ pick-up
Brome-Missisquoi:         BQ pick-up
Beauharnois-Salaberry:         BQ hold
Brossard-La Prairie:         Liberal hold
Chateauguay-Saint-Constant:      BQ hold
Vercheres-Les Patriotes:      BQ hold
Honore-Mercier:            Liberal hold
Ahuntsic:            BQ pick-up
Jeanne-Le Ber:            BQ pick-up
Laval-Les Iles:            Liberal hold
Outremont:            Liberal hold
Papineau:            BQ pick-up
Gatineau:            Liberal hold
Louis-Saint-Laurent:         BQ hold
Pontiac:            Liberal hold
Vaudreuil-Soulanges:         BQ hold
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord:         BQ hold

Result:
BQ - 59
Liberals - 16

Ontario
Ottawa Centre:            Liberal pick-up
Ottawa West-Nepean:         Conservative pick-up
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell:      Liberal hold
Peterborough:             Liberal hold
Simcoe North:            Conservative pick-up
Etobicoke-Lakeshore:         Liberal hold
Mississauga-Erindale:         Liberal hold
Hamilton Mountain:         NDP pick-up
Chatham-Kent-Essex:         Conservative pick-up
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex:         Conservative pick-up
London-Fanshawe:         Liberal hold
Beaches-East York:         Liberal hold
Parkdale-High Park:         Liberal hold
Trinity-Spadina:         NDP pick-up
Ancaster-Dundas-Flaborough-Westdale:    Liberal hold
Burlington:            Liberal hold
Halton:               Liberal hold
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek:      NDP pick-up
Hamilton Mountain:         NDP pick-up
Niagara Falls:            Conservative hold
Newmarket-Aurora:         Liberal pick-up (from last election)
Niagara West-Glanbrook:         Conservative hold
Oshawa:               NDP pick-up
St. Catharines:            Liberal hold
Whitby-Oshawa:            Liberal hold
Northumberland-Quinte West      Conservative pick-up
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry      Conservative hold
Kenora:               Liberal hold
Nickel Belt:            Liberal hold
Nipissing-Timiskaming:         Liberal hold
Parry Sound-Muskoka:         Liberal hold
Timmins-James Bay:         NDP hold
Brant:               Liberal hold
Haldimand-Norfolk:         Conservative hold
Cambridge:            Conservative hold   
Essex:               Conservative hold
Kitchener-Conestoaga:         Liberal hold
London West:            Liberal hold
Sarnia-Lambton:            Liberal hold
Barrie:               Liberal hold

Results:
Liberal 67
NDP 11
Cons 28

Prairies:
Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia:   Conservative hold
Churchill:            Liberal pick-up
Kildonan-St. Paul:         Conservative hold
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River:   Conservative hold
Palliser:            Conservative hold
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre:       Conservative hold
Regina-Qu'Appelle:         NDP pick-up
Saskatoon-Humboldt:         Conservative hold
Peace River:            Conservative hold
Westlock-St. Paul:         Conservative hold
Wetaskiwin:            Conservative hold
Edmonton-Millwoods-Beaumont:      Conservative pick-up
Edmonton Centre:         Liberal hold
Edmonton-Strathcona:         Conservative hold

Result: no change

British Columbia & the North
Richmond:            Liberal hold
British Columbia Southern Interior:   NDP pick-up
Kelowna-Lake Country:         Conservative hold
Okanagan-Shuswap:         Conservative hold
Abbotsford:             Conservative hold
Newton-North Delta:         NDP pick-up
Surrey North:            NDP pick-up
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country: Conservative hold
Victoria:            NDP pick-up
Vancouver Centre:         NDP pick-up
Vancouver-Kingsway:         Liberal hold
Burnaby-New Westminster:      NDP hold
Fleetwood-Port Kells:         Conservative hold
New Westminster-Coquitlam:      NDP pick-up
North Vancouver:         Liberal hold
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam:   Conservative hold
Skeena-Bulkley Valley:         NDP hold
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca:         Liberal hold
Nanaimo-Alberni:         Conservative hold
Saanich-Gulf Islands:         Conservative hold
Vancouver Island North:         NDP pick-up
Northwest Territories:         NDP pick-up

Results:
NDP 13
Cons 18
Liberal 8

TOTAL:
Liberal: 119
Cons: 99
NDP: 31
BQ: 59

[Hatman 🍁]

My riding... (2004)

[minionofmidas]

What's with the void precinct?

[Hatman 🍁]

What's with the void precinct?

No one lived there last election, however there is a new development there for this election. I guess they were just preparing.