President Forever Round IV

[12th Doctor]

Wildcard v. hughento

Bartlett ran a solid campaign--winning the debates, holding onto the momentum--but somehow found himself down two points on election day, and just couldn't pull off the win.

Michael R. Lane (R-CA): 62,263,543, 50%, 284 EV
Hugh Bartlett (D-OR): 61,561,779, 49%, 244 EV

Wow... Hugh draws even in the popular vote, wins Tennessee, Arizona, Iowa and West Virginia and still loses!?

[Gabu]

Wow... Hugh draws even in the popular vote, wins Tennessee, Arizona, Iowa and West Virginia and still loses!?

He caught your Pennsylvania Syndrome without the accompanying 300-EV Syndrome.

[Erc]

Alabama?

Yep.  Don't ask me to explain it though.

[Gabu]

Alabama?

Yep.  Don't ask me to explain it though.

That's at least the third time I've won one of Alabama or Mississippi out of absolutely nowhere.  I don't know what they see in me, but hey, no skin off my back.

[Erc]

Round 4:

Alcon v. Supersoulty

Soult began up seven points, but a victory for San Croix in the first debate helped close the gap to four.

However, poor performances in the next two debates meant San Croix couldn't close that gap--and was never quite able to free the West Coast from Soult's grasp [18-point lead in California as of November 1]

The night began well for San Croix, with a narrow victory in Indiana.

However, failures in Pennsylvania and in the South (beyond Tennessee) meant that the night was over even before California's results came in.

Chris Soult (R-PA): 65,181,672, 52%, 339 EV
Alcon San Croix (D-WA): 58,856,494, 47%, 199 EV

[Erc]

MHS2002 v. nini2287

Despite starting off with a five-point deficit and losing the first debate, Holler was in a reasonable position by mid-October...Pettit was only up two, there were a reasonable number of undecideds, and Pettit only had a weak electoral advantage.

Unfortunately, Pettit's win in the third debate widened the gap back to four points--but it was still very competitive where it counted--in the Electoral College.

With a three point lead on election day, Pettit definitely had the advantage--but he couldn't pop the champagne quite yet.

Holler needed to take a bunch of Pettit's marginals in order to have a shot at victory--unfortunately, he failed to do so, and thus lost the election.

Holler conceded at 11:00 PM.

Scott Pettit (R-DC): 64,217,988, 51%, 302 EV
Nicholas Holler (D-PA): 59,561,963, 47%, 236 EV



The closeness of the race in MA (under 6000 vote margin) was one of those election day flukes...

[Erc]

Wildcard v. hughento

Bartlett began down by only two points, and had the big momentum going into the first debate.  The draw in that debate tempered Bartlett's momentum, but allowed Bartlett to get Lane below 270 EV's.

The next week unfortunately brought both a moderate scandal for Bartlett and a victory for Lane in the second debate.  Nevertheless, Bartlett closed the gap to one point and increased his electoral position.

The third debate proved to be yet another draw--not as good as Bartlett would have liked, but it allowed him to move on and come within three EV's of Lane.

A Power 9 scandal hit Bartlett in the last weekend, and he was down three points--but he still held the electoral advantage.  If he won Virginia (where he was down two), he won.  If he won Wisconsin (where he was up three), he tied.  If he won Wisconsin and Nevada [dead even], he won.

Election Night:

8:05 PM:  Lane wins Virginia by 5 points--a slightly larger margin than expected, worrying to the Bartlett campaign, which could not afford to slide in the polls at all.  A great relief to the Lane campaign, which essentially needed Virginia to have any hope of winning.

9:10 PM:  Oklahoma, as expected, goes to Lane.  This state had been very close earlier--both candidates campaigned here on November 1 despite Lane's clear lead there.

9:11 PM:  Pennsylvania goes to Bartlett by six points.  Pennsylvania was expected to go Bartlett, but it was by no means secure.  Bartlett's victory there removes one of the great nagging worries of the Bartlett campaign.

10:01 PM:  Lane wins Arizona by five points, as expected.

10:03 PM:  Lane wins Kansas.

10:05 PM:  Bartlett wins Minnesota by nine points--a good augur for the Wisconsin results and removing yet another vulnerability in the Bartlett position.

10:07 PM:  Bartlett wins New Mexico by seven points.  Lane, in order to win outright, now needs to either win Wisconsin or pull off a coup in California or Hawaii.

10:11 PM:  Bartlett wins Wisconsin by 1.4%.  Bartlett is now sitting on 269 EV and now looks to Nevada for the win.

11:03 PM:  Bartlett wins Nevada by the astonishing margin of 4.5%.  Panic in Lane headquarters.  Lane can now only hope for a last-minute turnout of his supporters in his home state of California--even Hawaii wouldn't help him now.

12:00 PM:  California declares for Bartlett by 7 points.

12:01 PM:  Bartlett wins Hawaii by over 10 points.

12:02 PM:  Bartlett wins his home state of Oregon.

12:03 PM:  Bartlett wins Washington and breaks 270 EV.  After toying with the idea of calling for a recount in Wisconsin, Lane decides against it and concedes the election (grudgingly).

Michael R. Lane (R-CA): 63,460,020, 51%, 264 EV
Hugh Bartlett (D-OR): 60,066,281, 48%, 274 EV



Solid, if sneaky, win for hughento.

Series is tied at 2-2.

[Erc]

Ernest v. Gabu

Longley began down four points, but had narrowed the gap to one by the beginning of October.  Bunbury's victory in the first two debates didn't stop Longley from taking a one-point lead by mid-October.

It took Bunbury's utter victory in the third debate for him to regain momentum and the lead.

By election day, Longley had recovered--the polls were even, and neither had any clear electoral advantage.

Ohio.  Ohio.  Ohio.

Election Night:

7:00 PM:  Longley wins Indiana by 16 points, a much larger margin than expected.  Morale is high at Longley headquarters.

8:04 PM:  Longley wins the tossup state of Vermont by five points.

8:30 PM:  Longley wins North Carolina by three points.

8:31 PM:  Bunbury wins Ohio by four points--the first good news of the night for the Republicans.  Attention now turns to Tennessee, Arkansas, and Iowa.

9:08 PM:  Bunbury wins Missouri.

9:13 PM:  Longley wins Tennessee by just under 10 points.  He now only needs Iowa or Arkansas to win.

9:30 PM:  Longley wins Arkansas by five points, pushing his expected EV total just over 270.  If Bunbury is going to win, he's going to have to win both Iowa and crack into Longley's stronghold in the Pacific Northwest.

11:01 PM:  Longley wins Iowa by a slim margin.  Unless Bunbury can pull off a coup in Longley's home state of Washington, this one's over.

12:03 PM:  Washington delivers its favorite Senator the Presidency.

Lucas Longley (D-WA): 62,328,904, 50%, 278 EV
Ernest Bunbury (R-SC): 61,670,346, 49%, 260 EV



Series is tied at two apiece.

[ilikeverin]

7:00 PM:  Longley wins Indiana by 16 points

...

[Gabu]

7:00 PM:  Longley wins Indiana by 16 points

...

That win was for you.

[12th Doctor]

These matches have produced some... interesting results.

[Erc]

Now that I finally have a bit more free time, we can finish this up.

Round 5:

Game 1:  Alcon v. Supersoulty

Soult, as usual, began ahead by a large margin (9 points).  By early October, this had dropped to 8 points, but Alcon could only reliably count on DC (his next best state, Rhode Island, had Soult well within the margin of error 47-44).

San Croix had the momentum going into the first debate--and despite losing it, the news was good come the next monday.  He had taken reasonable to comfortable leads in Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Virginia, New York, Delaware, Massachusetts, and Maryland--but was obviously still in dire straits nationwide.  Soult won the second debate, but a Soult scandal helped narrow the gap to six.  However, Soult's performance in the third debate helped him get back on track, increasing his lead to nine points and putting him over the 50% mark for the first time--and San Croix was only able to make a two-point dent in that in the final week.

At 8:00 PM, Alcon lost Florida--one of the desperate long-shot states that he needed to win to win this election.

Although he had some nice victories in key swing states over the course of the night (Illinois, West Virginia)--it wasn't nearly enough.

At 10:04, Soult won Louisiana and the election.

The final embarassment came at 12:03, when Washington declared for Soult by a 21.7-point margin (by far larger than Soult's own home state of PA, which only had a 11.2-point margin).

Chris Soult (R-PA): 66,110,611, 53%, 395 EV
Alcon San Croix (D-WA): 57,089,170, 45%, 143 EV

[Alcon]

Wow, this scenario certainly doesn't like me.

[12th Doctor]

Again, I win CT and VT.