Chuck Todd's Senate Ratings

[nclib]

This is Chuck Todd from National Journal ranking of vulnerability of Senate races. I compiled this from dcpoliticalreport. What does everyone think of this list?

1.   Santorum   Pennsylvania
2.   Chafee   Rhode Island
3.   Open (Dayton) Minnesota
4.   Open (Sarbanes) Maryland
5.   Conrad   North Dakota
6.   Burns   Montana
7.   Nelson (Bill) Florida
8.   Open (Frist) Tennessee
9.   Open (Corzine) New Jersey
10.   Nelson (Ben) Nebraska
11.   Byrd   West Virginia
12.   Kyl   Arizona
13.   Talent   Missouri
14.   Stabenow Michigan
15.   Cantwell   Washington
16.   Open (Jeffords) Vermont
17.   DeWine   Ohio
18.   Lugar   Indiana
19.   Bingaman    New Mexico
20.   Snowe   Maine
21.   Allen   Virginia
22.   Ensign   Nevada
23.   Clinton   New York
24.   Kohl   Wisconsin
25.   Thomas   Wyoming
26.   Feinstein   California
27.   Lott   Mississippi
28.   Lieberman Connecticut
29.   Akaka   Hawaii
30.   Carper   Delaware
31.   Hutchison Texas
32.   Kennedy   Massachusetts
33.   Hatch   Utah

Personally, I think the Dems will do better than this list suggests.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Conrad and Byrd more vulnerable than Talent and DeWine? What a load of crap.

[nclib]

Conrad and Byrd more vulnerable than Talent and DeWine? What a load of crap.

I think this list is from March, but that still doesn't make much sense.

[Galactic Overlord]

It seems pretty accurate as of earlier this year.  A lot happened since then that would defintely have shuffled this list.

[Jake]

The way it's looking now.

1.   Santorum   Pennsylvania
2.   Open (Dayton) Minnesota
3.   Talent   Missouri
4.   Open (Corzine) New Jersey
5.   Chafee Rhode Island
6.   DeWine   Ohio
7.   Nelson (Bill) Florida
8.   Burns Montana
9.   Open (Sarbanes) Maryland
10. Open (Frist) Tennessee

[riceowl]

I would put Hatch in front of Feinstein, at least (not that any of those are gonna get the boot).

[Moooooo]

The way it's looking now.

1.   Santorum   Pennsylvania
2.   Open (Dayton) Minnesota
3.   Talent   Missouri
4.   Open (Corzine) New Jersey
5.   Chafee Rhode Island
6.   DeWine   Ohio
7.   Nelson (Bill) Florida
8.   Burns Montana
9.   Open (Sarbanes) Maryland
10. Open (Frist) Tennessee

I agree with this list for the most part, howevert, Id move Maryland up a bit.  Id say at least above MT.  Possibly above Florida.

[Blank Slate]

The way it's looking now.

1.   Santorum   Pennsylvania
2.   Open (Dayton) Minnesota
3.   Talent   Missouri
4.   Open (Corzine) New Jersey
5.   Chafee Rhode Island
6.   DeWine   Ohio
7.   Nelson (Bill) Florida
8.   Burns Montana
9.   Open (Sarbanes) Maryland
10. Open (Frist) Tennessee

I agree with this list for the most part, howevert, Id move Maryland up a bit.  Id say at least above MT.  Possibly above Florida.

I'd also put DeWine up above, at least, Talent in the 3rd spot, possibly above the Minnesota open seat (of Dayton's).   I'd say that the Ohio GOP is probably more split than the Democratic Farmer-Laborer party is in Minnesota.    Plus with the news that it looks like Sherrod Brown will be Ted Strickland's running mate as Lt. Governor in Ohio, that means Hackett might be better posititoned to oust DeWine.

Here's where I think the races stand as of now, this could change, as far as top ten vulnerability (this is figuring polls, what is happening in the states with the political parties and also the national political mood):

1.    Santorum                 Pennsylvania
2.    Open (Dayton)         Minnesota       
3.    DeWine                    Ohio
4.    Talent                      Missouri
5.    Open (Corzine)        New Jersey
6.    Open (Sarbanes)     Maryland
7.    Chafee                     Rhode Island
8.    Burns                       Montana
9.    Open (Frist)             Tennessee
10.   Nelson                    Florida

I moved DeWine up, but not above Dayton's Open seat (at least not yet).   I also moved up Sarbanes' Open seat, and moved down Nelson of Florida behind Burns (moved up, because the Democrats do have a potentially stronger candidate -- Tester, running unlike the Florida seat where Republicans only have, at best, Harris already running {which isn't there best}, now I would say if some other Republican besides Harris offered up a challenge I'd change the ranking, here).    And finally I think it being an open seat, Tennessee should be higher in ranking than Florida, but the Democrats have probably a better chance at taking out Burns than winning the Tennessee seat {at least at this point in time}.   

[© tweed]

This guy is nuts.  IT should be more like this:

1. Santorum, PA
2. DeWine, OH
3. Open, MN
4. Open, NJ
5. Talent, MO
6. Chafee, RI
7. Open, TN
8. Open, MD
9. Burns, MT
10. Nelson, FL

Outside of the first 7 none are going to switch hands.

[Ben.]

In Play – Top Ten Most Vulnerable Senate Seats

1. Santorum (PA) - Getting to the stage where i can't see how Rick wins this one

2. Corzine/Open (NJ) - Perhaps the only GOP pickup of the night

3. DeWine (OH) - Only if Hackett is the nominee, Brown won't win.

4. Talent (MO) - I still think Talent has a strong inbuilt advantage.

5. Dayton/Open (MN)

6. Sarbanes/Open (MD)

7. Nelson (FL) - Unless the GOP aviods a Harris candidacy, Nelson should be fine.

8. Frist/ Open (TN) - For all Ford's efforts the GOP still has the edge IMHO.

9. Burns (MT)

10. Chafee (RI)

Not in Play – Unless things change radically that is

11. Cantwell (WA)
12. Stabenow (MI)
13. Conrad (ND)
14. Nelson (NE)
15. Kyl (AZ)
16. Kohl (WI)
17. Allen (VA)
18. Clinton (NY)
19. Jeffords/Open (VT)  - Staying Independent
20. Bingham (NM)
21. Byrd (WV)
22. Ensign (NV) 
23. Lugar (IN)   
24. Lott (MS) – If Lott retires and Moore runs, move it to around 7 or 8
25. Carper (DE)
26. Akaka (HI)
27. Snowe (ME)
28. Lieberman (CT)
29. Hutchinson (TX)
30. Hatch (UT)
31. Thomas (WY)
32. Feinstein (CA)   
33. Kennedy (MA)

[Moooooo]

Stabenow shouldnt be listed as out of play.  A new candidate has entered the race.  I forget his name, but I know for a fact he's better than the two nutcase preachers the GOP has running now.  Also, MI economy is in pretty bad shape and they're primed for an anti-incumbent election.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Only seats that IMO have a chance to change. =)

1.   Santorum   Pennsylvania
2.   DeWine   Ohio
3.   Talent   Missouri
4.   Open (Frist) Tennessee
5.   Allen   Virginia
6.   Chafee   Rhode Island
7.   Burns   Montana

IMO Arizona and Nevada are wildcards that could make the above list in the future.  I know most will see VA as an impossible pickup but I disagree. =)

[Keystone Phil]

Only seats that IMO have a chance to change. =)

1.   Santorum   Pennsylvania
2.   DeWine   Ohio
3.   Talent   Missouri
4.   Open (Frist) Tennessee
5.   Allen   Virginia
6.   Chafee   Rhode Island
7.   Burns   Montana

IMO Arizona and Nevada are wildcards that could make the above list in the future.  I know most will see VA as an impossible pickup but I disagree. =)

Arizona and Nevada are wildcards yet NJ doesn't even make the main list?

[Jake]

Only seats that IMO have a chance to change. =)

1.   Santorum   Pennsylvania
2.   DeWine   Ohio
3.   Talent   Missouri
4.   Open (Frist) Tennessee
5.   Allen   Virginia
6.   Chafee   Rhode Island
7.   Burns   Montana

IMO Arizona and Nevada are wildcards that could make the above list in the future.  I know most will see VA as an impossible pickup but I disagree. =)

Which candidates will win it in TN and VA? And why not MN or NJ?

Nick - After thinking about it, I still think Maryland is pretty much out of play, even this early in the game. While an open seat should be more vulnerable, I really think that the cards are too deeply stacked against Steele to put it in play, where in FL, there's still an oppurtunity for the GOP to sneak in. Realistically, only the first six are in danger of switching hands at the moment.

[True Democrat]

Here's my perspective:

Pennsylvania
Minesota
New Jersey
Missouri
Maryland
Ohio
Rhode Island
Florida
Nebraska
Tennessee
Montana
Michigan
Washington
Arizona
Wisconsin
North Dakota
Virginia
New York
West Virginia
Vermont
Nevada
California
Indiana
New Mexico
Connecticut
Delaware
Utah
Maine
Mississippi
Texas
Hawaii
Massachusetts
Wyoming

[Dave from Michigan]

Stabenow shouldnt be listed as out of play.  A new candidate has entered the race.  I forget his name, but I know for a fact he's better than the two nutcase preachers the GOP has running now.  Also, MI economy is in pretty bad shape and they're primed for an anti-incumbent election.

I think your talking about Michael Bouchard,  Oakland County Sheriff.  He may only be Sheriff, although he was a state senator and representative from Oaklnad county too.  Oakland county is important to winning Michigan,  he is quite popular there.  I don't think he will win.  If things really turn around for the republicans he may get 48%.  He should at least get 45% of the vote. 

[GOP = Terrorists]

Which candidates will win it in TN and VA? And why not MN or NJ?

Harold Ford in TN and Admiral Webb in VA.

And why not MN or NJ?

I don't see a single Democratic seat going Republican.  Iraq will see to that.  Although most Dems have not done much to deserve the electoral boost it is clearly the nature of the two party system for them to recieve one anyone who thinks that a "throw out the bums" election will result in Republican advantage anywhere is mistaken.

Oh and If Burns ends up linked to Abramoff however he will end up much higher on the list if not #2.



Nick - After thinking about it, I still think Maryland is pretty much out of play, even this early in the game. While an open seat should be more vulnerable, I really think that the cards are too deeply stacked against Steele to put it in play, where in FL, there's still an oppurtunity for the GOP to sneak in. Realistically, only the first six are in danger of switching hands at the moment.
[/quote]

[Jake]

Which candidates will win it in TN and VA? And why not MN or NJ?

Harold Ford in TN and Admiral Webb in VA.

When you're ready to seriously discuss these races, get back to me. Allen is safe and Tennessee is our Maryland. A black congressman from Memphis ain't going to beat Hilleary, Corker, or Bryant.

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I don't see a single Democratic seat going Republican.  Iraq will see to that.  Although most Dems have not done much to deserve the electoral boost it is clearly the nature of the two party system for them to recieve one anyone who thinks that a "throw out the bums" election will result in Republican advantage anywhere is mistaken.
[/quote]

An anti-incumbent election will not affect two open seat races, especially New Jersey where corruption already is not an issue.

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The "if" is the important part here. You must assume A. That Burns can be easily tied to Abramoff, B. That you can make this available to voters so that they believe it, and C. Keep this as an issue next year. Even doing that only makes Burns vulnerable. Montana Dems will have to run a good campaign even if the above comes true.

[TheresNoMoney]

The "if" is the important part here. You must assume A. That Burns can be easily tied to Abramoff, B. That you can make this available to voters so that they believe it, and C. Keep this as an issue next year.

http://a9.g.akamai.net/7/9/8082/v001/democratic1.download.akamai.com/8082/video/DSCC05-04-30_StayHome.wmv

[GOP = Terrorists]

When you're ready to seriously discuss these races, get back to me. Allen is safe and Tennessee is our Maryland. A black congressman from Memphis ain't going to beat Hilleary, Corker, or Bryant.

I think that you're going to have a fired up Democratic base and a depressed Republican base come 2006 elections.  A majority of TN now thinks that it was a bad idea to go into Iraq and I expect it to continue to grow.  Ford is very moderate and unoffensive to mainstream people.  I expect it to be a very tough fight but very possible but only if he is able to use Iraq effectively.

An anti-incumbent election will not affect two open seat races, especially New Jersey where corruption already is not an issue."

I think corruption is very much an issue especially in New Jersey and that if the Dems in New Jersey government were not so corrupt you'd have seen Forrester get BURRIED!

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Well I should clarify.  There is no doubt that Burns took money he shouldn't have.  There is no doubt that this will hurt him electorally.  There is no doubt that Dems in Montana have had a resurgence.  But you're right on the good campaign bit.  Tester and Morrison are no Schweitzer.

[Jake]

Iraq will not be the issue it was in 2004 or 2005 next year. We are already seeing pressure for a withdrawal and rumors of impending troop drawdowns. It looks increasingly likely that significant numbers of American troops will be withdrawn after the December elections and at the very least, it won't be the issue you make it out to be, especially not for Ford who supported the war and continues to oppose withdrawal.

Let me clarify on New Jersey, corruption was shown not to be an issue over and over this election. Corzine defeated Forrester by a solid margin. If corruption had mattered at all, Forrester could've made it closer.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Iraq will not be the issue it was in 2004 or 2005 next year.

I would say it played little real role in 2004.  All it did was polarize the country.  A year from now it wont polarize anything it will unify the country against the war.

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Yep and both parties will claim victory.  But America has woken up to false claims of victory.  You can only claim victory so many times before your claims mean nothing to anyone.  As time passes the focus will be more and more on how and why we went into Iraq especially as we start bringing significant numbers home (and we will have no choice but to do so unless we draft).  The majority question the integrity of the current administration and I expect the GOP controlled congress to be questioned for the lack of oversight they have provided. 

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Have you seen anything from Ford post Murtha?  The advantage that Dem Hawks have is the ability to stress that they were given faulty intel by the Bush administration just like the American people were.  I did say that Ford has to take advantage of it.

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I'm not sold.  Forrester did get a boost by the corruption in Trenton it just couldn't outweigh partisanship.  However in 2006 you are going to essentially have a referendum on Bush in a blue state...  Though If Corzine appoints Menendez it might have an impact.