President Jackson?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 05:46:55 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  President Jackson?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: President Jackson?  (Read 3132 times)
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 27, 2005, 09:56:27 PM »
« edited: November 27, 2005, 10:34:56 PM by SoS True Independent »

After easily winning the New Hampshire primary by a margin of 54% to McGovern's 20%, Muskie went on to easily win the rest of the states in the 1972 Democratic primaries.  His only formidable opponent was George Wallace, but his campaign ended after an assassination attempt in Maryland.  At the convention, Muskie picked Henry "Scoop" Jackson as his running mate.  One of the biggest problems with any Democratic ticket is its opposition to the War in Vietnam, however with Jackson and his reputation as a hawkish Democrat, the ticket became more viable.

During the general election campaign, a break-in at the Democratic headquarters at the Watergate hotel occurred on July 23rd, shortly after the end of the Democratic nomination.  The burglars were easily captured, and Muskie decided to add this to campaign.  He assigned his running mate to make this his main talking point.  Although a loose tie between Nixon and the break-in was made, no definite tie was made.  Many voters actually became upset at Jackson's constant attacks of Nixon, including a direct attack on Agnew at the debate.  At one point, Muskie was leading 50-45, but by election day Nixon had the lead (53-44).  Election day produced few surprises, though Muskie made it closer than anyone would have thought.  It was notable how the Eastern Seaboard vote much more stronlgy Democratic than the rest of the South because of recent immigration.  Muskie did very well out West and the NE, while faltering somewhat in the Midwest.



Nixon/Agnew: 50.7%, 299 electoral votes
Muskie/Jackson: 47.5%, 239 electoral votes
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2005, 10:59:15 PM »

After a tough defeat in 1972, the Democrats find themselves with a great deal of luck after the Nixon resignation.  In the 1976 primary, Jackson's unofficial campaign slogan is "I told you so".  Jackson's new image as an orginial opposer of Nixon projects him to the leader of the primaries.  In New Hampshire, he gets 47% of the vote, with Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter in second with 24%.  Although Carter goes on to win most of the Southern primaries, Jackson easily win the nomination.  At the convention, many delegates believe Jackson will pick Carter for VP.  However, instead of picking one who opposes his views, he picks a key supporter of his campaign, Representative Morris "Mo" Udall from the 2nd districtc in Arizona.

In the Republican primary, a close battle is fought between Ford and Reagan.  However, when it has become apparent that Jackson is going to be nominated by the Democrats, Reagan, who is down slightly to Ford, drops out of the race for the sake of party unity.  Reagan expects his gesture to be rewarded with him being picked as Ford's running mate.  However, another shock for a running mate is chosen, when Ford picks Massachusetts Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts.  This is a bold move, as Brooke is an African-American.  This gives Ford considerable votes among minorities, but also causes him to lose many Southerners.

Early in the campaign, Jackson sees his numbers in NE faltering.  In mid-September, he pulls out of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Maryland.  In most polls, Ford's lead is over 7% in these states, outside the margin of error.  By early October, Jackson also pulls out of New York.  This leaves Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania as the only states where Jackson is campaigning.  He transfers much of staff funds from the Northeast to the "Outer South" (Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, etc) and the Mountain West.

By election day, most polls indicate a close election is at hand.  Jackson needs to win Texas to win the election.  As results from Texas come in, it appears that Jackson will win the state by 4%, in great thanks to Ford's poor performance in usually conservative areas.  The only NE states that Jackson wins are Pennsylvania (52-46) Rhode Island (49-48).  In New York, Ford wins 54-44.  This is mainly due to Jackson pulling his campaign, but also because of NYC.  Here, Jackson wins an average of only 55% in the boroughs.  Even with his increased votes upstate, this is not enough to get Jackson anywhere close to winning the state.  Jackson's best three states are Washington (63-36), Oregon (61-39), and Minnesota (57-41).  Jackson also gets a lot of support from the entire Udall family, giving him states like Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.  Ford's three best states are Vermont (58-42), New Jersey (56-44), and Florida (56-44).



Jackson/Udall: 52.1%, 297 electoral votes
Ford/Brooke: 47.4%, 241 electoral votes
Logged
M
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,491


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2005, 08:20:54 PM »

Seems odd.

Jackson's strongest supporters included Jews and Labor, and in OTL's '72 primary he carried NY and Mass. Has the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment been butterflied out of existence? Otherwise, Jackson should be able to count on Jewish votes, plus his hawkishness on the Soviet issue will rally some more Southern votes.

Whither South Vietnam, Cambodia?
Logged
jokerman
Cosmo Kramer
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,808
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2005, 08:41:58 PM »

Seems odd.

Jackson's strongest supporters included Jews and Labor, and in OTL's '72 primary he carried NY and Mass. Has the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment been butterflied out of existence? Otherwise, Jackson should be able to count on Jewish votes, plus his hawkishness on the Soviet issue will rally some more Southern votes.

Whither South Vietnam, Cambodia?
Both of those true.

He had many traditional populist leanings which would allow him to carry much stronger in the South and as well very hawkish and popular wih Jewish people.  Some people think the Neo-Con ideology partly comes from him.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2005, 10:00:11 PM »

Seems odd.

Jackson's strongest supporters included Jews and Labor, and in OTL's '72 primary he carried NY and Mass. Has the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment been butterflied out of existence? Otherwise, Jackson should be able to count on Jewish votes, plus his hawkishness on the Soviet issue will rally some more Southern votes.

Whither South Vietnam, Cambodia?
Both of those true.

He had many traditional populist leanings which would allow him to carry much stronger in the South and as well very hawkish and popular wih Jewish people.  Some people think the Neo-Con ideology partly comes from him.

I actually don't know that much about Jackson.  I did make the South closer, giving Jackson a lot of Whites, but still not obviously enough to take it.  I made the NE go for Ford because of Brooke being on the ticket.  I just put a scenario in where Ford did incredibly well in the NE.  Because Jackson pulled his campaign out of NE states, he couldn't win them.  Remember, it's not necessarily supposed to be real.  Also, remember that Ford is doing very well among African-Americans, getting about 40% of the vote.
Logged
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,572


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 28, 2005, 11:49:18 PM »

Logged
jokerman
Cosmo Kramer
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,808
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2005, 05:11:31 PM »

Walter's map looks much more accurate.
Logged
Ben.
Ben
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,249


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2005, 06:09:57 PM »


After a tough defeat in 1972, the Democrats find themselves with a great deal of luck after the Nixon resignation.  In the 1976 primary, Jackson's unofficial campaign slogan is "I told you so".  Jackson's new image as an orginial opposer of Nixon projects him to the leader of the primaries.  In New Hampshire, he gets 47% of the vote, with Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter in second with 24%.  Although Carter goes on to win most of the Southern primaries, Jackson easily win the nomination.  At the convention, many delegates believe Jackson will pick Carter for VP.  However, instead of picking one who opposes his views, he picks a key supporter of his campaign, Representative Morris "Mo" Udall from the 2nd districtc in Arizona.

In the Republican primary, a close battle is fought between Ford and Reagan.  However, when it has become apparent that Jackson is going to be nominated by the Democrats, Reagan, who is down slightly to Ford, drops out of the race for the sake of party unity.  Reagan expects his gesture to be rewarded with him being picked as Ford's running mate.  However, another shock for a running mate is chosen, when Ford picks Massachusetts Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts.  This is a bold move, as Brooke is an African-American.  This gives Ford considerable votes among minorities, but also causes him to lose many Southerners.

Early in the campaign, Jackson sees his numbers in NE faltering.  In mid-September, he pulls out of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Maryland.  In most polls, Ford's lead is over 7% in these states, outside the margin of error.  By early October, Jackson also pulls out of New York.  This leaves Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania as the only states where Jackson is campaigning.  He transfers much of staff funds from the Northeast to the "Outer South" (Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, etc) and the Mountain West.

By election day, most polls indicate a close election is at hand.  Jackson needs to win Texas to win the election.  As results from Texas come in, it appears that Jackson will win the state by 4%, in great thanks to Ford's poor performance in usually conservative areas.  The only NE states that Jackson wins are Pennsylvania (52-46) Rhode Island (49-48).  In New York, Ford wins 54-44.  This is mainly due to Jackson pulling his campaign, but also because of NYC.  Here, Jackson wins an average of only 55% in the boroughs.  Even with his increased votes upstate, this is not enough to get Jackson anywhere close to winning the state.  Jackson's best three states are Washington (63-36), Oregon (61-39), and Minnesota (57-41).  Jackson also gets a lot of support from the entire Udall family, giving him states like Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.  Ford's three best states are Vermont (58-42), New Jersey (56-44), and Florida (56-44).



Jackson/Udall: 52.1%, 297 electoral votes
Ford/Brooke: 47.4%, 241 electoral votes


In 1976, against a credible Democrat such as Jackson, Ford would not win the south by such a wide margin, I’d expect Jackson to do much better in the north east and upper south and less well in the west. Something like say…



Henry “Scoop” Jackson/ Jimmy Carter (DEM) – 287 EV, 52.1%PV.
Gerald Ford/ Edward Brooke (REP) – 251 EV, 47.4%PV.
Logged
HappyWarrior
hannibal
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,058


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -0.35

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2007, 06:27:47 PM »

NO WAY that any Republican wins Maryland.  Trust me, we are one of the most liberal states in the Union.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 12 queries.