Canada 2006: Predictions & Prediction-Aiding-Maps thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 03:47:31 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Canada 2006: Predictions & Prediction-Aiding-Maps thread
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Canada 2006: Predictions & Prediction-Aiding-Maps thread  (Read 6874 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 30, 2005, 04:08:32 PM »

Might as well do a seperate thread for this.
I'll be doing predictions like I did for the U.K election in this thread (I'll find the key for that shortly) but I've also decided to post the demographic maps I'm colouring in here as well (to avoid cluttering a certain other thread).
To avoid the cluttering of the main thread, please post predictions here or in some new thread.

Map key (yes, yes, I spotted the typo about two seconds after uploading the image...)



First finished maps are for Newfies. The outlines were blatently stolen copied from public domain maps on Wikipedia (originally drawn by Earl, unless there are two Earl Andrew Washburn's living in Ottawa) or nicked from that Atlas of Canada thingy. The data used to colour the maps is from the census website (Statcan). The idea of the maps is to help us all make more accurate predictions.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2005, 04:09:37 PM »

Newfoundland & Labrador

Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2005, 04:15:41 PM »

whats the blue collar thing a measure of exactly? What jobs they do?
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2005, 04:23:46 PM »

While we're talking about Newfoundland, don't forget this map Smiley

Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2005, 04:33:33 PM »

whats the blue collar thing a measure of exactly? What jobs they do?

Manual jobs. The actual numbers are higher than the ones I'm using though; the official occupation groups lump people employed in "service" jobs with people employed in sales jobs; a significant proportion of the service jobs are manual jobs (I can understand the logic of grouping the two together; it would be nice to have seperate data on both without having to pay and arm and a leg for it. It's even worse with the misers that run the Aussie census stuff <insert long rant here>)
While this effects the overall numbers, it probably doesn't mess with the geography of blue collar jobs much... with one exception (certain post-industrial areas).
National average is about 26% (as of last census). Most blue collar provinces are P.E.I, Saskatchewan and Newfies. Only province significantly under the national average is B.C (most of the Lower Mainland is very white collar IIRC).
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2005, 05:01:02 PM »

Southern Ontario (2004)

Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2005, 05:08:32 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2005, 07:01:43 PM by Senator Al, PPT »

Cheesy

EDIT: Southern Ontario income map is more than half done. Will almost certainly be finished, uploaded and posted tomorrow.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 01, 2005, 09:55:52 AM »
« Edited: December 01, 2005, 10:32:09 AM by Senator Al, PPT »

And it is done:



Couple of things;

1. I wasn't aware that the outer suburbs of Ottawa were that rich... does that mean that being a civil servant pays better than over here?
2. I actually had to add a new colour for three ridings in and around Toronto as the average household income was over $100k in all of them...
3. The income patterns around Toronto are very interesting; especially the sharp difference between the city's outer-northern ridings and the Richmond Hill et al area just north of them.

EDIT: for some reason the forum is auto-resizeing the image Angry
Logged
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,572


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 01, 2005, 10:14:21 AM »

were the conservatives ever competitive in newfoundland?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2005, 10:35:41 AM »

were the conservatives ever competitive in newfoundland?

Federally? Occasionally; in 1997 they did well due to the general Atlantic backlash against the Liberals (main cause was cuts to employment insurance IIRC) and I think they did well in some elections around the early '80's.
From memory they either swept or came close to sweeping the province one election in the '60's or '70's for some reason... will have to check.

Provincially they're in power at the moment; the previous Liberal government had made itself extremely unpopular for some reason and there was talk of a wipeout (didn't happen though).
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 01, 2005, 07:00:43 PM »

Al: The Ottawa suburbs are rich because of the high tech sector. At least in the west end like Nepean and Kanata. The more francophone areas have more civil servant jobs because for the most part, you need to know French to have a government job. The civil service is well paying too though.

Just out of interest to maybe you Al:

Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2005, 07:31:41 PM »

Al: The Ottawa suburbs are rich because of the high tech sector. At least in the west end like Nepean and Kanata.

Makes sense actually

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also makes sense

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

So there's a cluster in the inner-northeastern area (that's the Vanier riding isn't it?) and lower densities further east, until the extreme eastern edge of the city. I know that east of Ottawa is very Francophone, so it'd be interesting to know whether or not that concentration is due to people from that area moving to Ottawa, or people from the Francophone concentration in Ottawa moving out to the area.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2005, 07:43:27 PM »

Al: The Ottawa suburbs are rich because of the high tech sector. At least in the west end like Nepean and Kanata.

Makes sense actually

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also makes sense

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

So there's a cluster in the inner-northeastern area (that's the Vanier riding isn't it?) and lower densities further east, until the extreme eastern edge of the city. I know that east of Ottawa is very Francophone, so it'd be interesting to know whether or not that concentration is due to people from that area moving to Ottawa, or people from the Francophone concentration in Ottawa moving out to the area.

As far as I know, the French have always lived in Vanier and Cumberland. Orleans is a newish susburb, so the French have moved there, but I am fairly certain French people were the original settlers to the Orleans area too. All the rural area east of the city all the way to the Quebec border is fairly french, mainly in Presscott and Russell Counties.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2005, 02:30:38 PM »

Nice map.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2005, 06:19:16 PM »

Couple of things;

1. I'm about to start on the blue collar map for southern Ontario; to make predictions easier I'm thinking of not including the occupation group that includes "occupations unique to primary industry" (in southern Ontario this overwhelmingly translates as "agriculture"). You can probably all see the problems this might cause with a map drawn to help predictions... (the national average if you remove primary industries is 21.7%, btw). An alternative would be to keep the primary industries, but add the "sales and service" occupation group (taking the national average up to 49.6%). I'm leaning towards just not including primary industries (which would mean making a seperate map of employment in primary industries in some areas) but some feedback would be nice.

2. I found my key:

S: Safe
SL: Strong Lean
L: Lean
M: Marginal
SF: Slight Lean
NCF: No Clear Favourite

* indicates a pickup
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 03, 2005, 06:45:26 PM »

NDP % in Southern Ontario:

Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 03, 2005, 07:14:28 PM »

Cool map Smiley
The relatively high numbers in rural Central Ontario are intriguing...
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 03, 2005, 07:26:04 PM »

Cool map Smiley
The relatively high numbers in rural Central Ontario are intriguing...

Have you seen the 1990 provincial map? The NDP was able to sweep much of central Ontario
Logged
Dave from Michigan
9iron768
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 03, 2005, 07:32:39 PM »

Windsor is NDP right,  I was there last night but didn't see any signs of an election.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 03, 2005, 07:35:36 PM »

Windsor is NDP right,  I was there last night but didn't see any signs of an election.

Yes, federally anyways.

I haven't seen very many signs here either. The NDP never got back to me when I called them about putting up signs.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 03, 2005, 10:24:37 PM »

I'm going to do some analyses of some of Ontario's census divisions. This is unique, as most people focus on ridings. Census divisions are like counties (and some of them are).

I'll start with the District of Algoma

2004 map:



Algoma is divided into 1 and a half ridings. The full riding is Sault Ste. Marie and the partial is Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing. The border between the two is the thick black line.

Sault Ste. Marie voted NDP while A-M-K voted Liberal.

Sault Ste Marie riding may have voted NDP, but the city which makes up probably 75% of the riding voted Liberal by about 400 votes. This was the only municipality in the riding that voted Liberal. The rest voted NDP or Conservative. The NDP areas were concentrated in the Sault area, while the Conservatives were concentrated along the north shore region, which extends into the neighbouring AMK riding and ends just before Blind River. East of Blind River is primarily Liberal. Much of the north of Algoma is NDP, but the Liberals won Dubreuville and Wawa (Michipicoten Township).

Interestingly, indian reserves in the SSM riding voted overwhelmingly NDP, while in AMK, they voted overwhelmingly Liberal.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 04, 2005, 10:55:50 AM »


Yep Smiley

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm... that's true. And not always by same margins; there was a big majority in the provincial riding that made up most of what is now Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock. I suppose that demographically it's not that bad for the NDP; taking a wild guess, do they just lack the organisation?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 04, 2005, 07:23:02 PM »

Census division thing is great Smiley So, would Martin have won Soo on the previous boundaries?
"Blue collar" map coming along nicely; most blue collar riding is York West (over 40%). Using that definition of blue collar (as opposed to the one on the Newfies map) it *might* actually be the most blue collar in Canada; I'll have to check. Certainly one of the highest.
Was also suprised at how blue collar Brampton is.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 05, 2005, 12:19:45 AM »

Census division thing is great Smiley So, would Martin have won Soo on the previous boundaries?


Yes he would have, as the riding was just the city of SSM. Finally, some gerrymandering in favour of the NDP! I found this bit of information very interesting. I had thought the Soo would have voted NDP, but this was not true. Also of note, Pat Martin who is the NDP MP was a former MPP, but lost in 2003 in the riding which was just Sault Ste. Marie. It was close too. So, not much has changed in the city itself Smiley


Yep Smiley

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm... that's true. And not always by same margins; there was a big majority in the provincial riding that made up most of what is now Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock. I suppose that demographically it's not that bad for the NDP; taking a wild guess, do they just lack the organisation?

I would imagine it is because the area is pretty socially conservative.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: December 05, 2005, 02:37:22 AM »

Brant County



Brant County is initself an enitre riding. In Brant, which voted Liberal, we see an obvious urban/rural split. It's unfortunate that all of rural brant county is now in the same municipality, because I cant show any more detail than I have for rural Brant. As for Brantford, it was a split between the NDP and the Liberals, with the Liberals in the clear lead  though. Out in the Six Nations reserve, it voted Liberal fairly strongly, with the NDP in second  while the New Credit reserve voted NDP by one vote. Both reserves are in reality have the county boundary cutting through them, but for purposes of this map, I have included them in Brant County for their entirety, as they are both in the Brant riding in their entirety.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 12 queries.