Conservatives Move Into Tie With Liberals In Canada

[Moooooo]

From the AP/IPSOS:

2006 CANADIAN ELECTION
Conservative party 31%
Liberal Party 31%
New Democratic Party 18%
Green Party 5%

[WalterMitty]

im not buying those numbers.

[nini2287]

What do the New Demcoats stand for?  (I'm not too familiar with Canadian politics)

[Hatman 🍁]

What do the New Demcoats stand for?  (I'm not too familiar with Canadian politics)

They're Social Democrats

[Moooooo]

im not buying those numbers.

Why?  Do you think the conservatives will do better or worse?

[Jake]

What do the New Demcoats stand for?  (I'm not too familiar with Canadian politics)

Socialism and Social Liberalism

[Siege40]

Those numbers are possible, but unlikely. I have a gut feeling, though obvious doubts, that outside of major screw-ups, the Conservatives will form a terribly weak minority government.

Siege

[Moooooo]

Weak minority or weak majority?

[WalterMitty]

im not buying those numbers.

Why?  Do you think the conservatives will do better or worse?

i think it is possible that the conservatives will do worse than they did in 04.

i also think that it is almost certain the liberals will finish at least 5 points ahead of the conservatives.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the popular vote count is close, then that means the Conservatives are looking at a minority government, even if they lose the PV by a couple points. This is because a lot of Liberal votes are wasted in ridings that they have no hope of winning or in ridings where they slaughter their opponents.

[Cubby]

im not buying those numbers.

Why?  Do you think the conservatives will do better or worse?

i think it is possible that the conservatives will do worse than they did in 04.

i also think that it is almost certain the liberals will finish at least 5 points ahead of the conservatives.

I agree with that. I'm not sure that Harper has proven himself to voters over the past 18 months anymore than he did before the last election. And from the sound of things, most Canadians don't want to have this election, which means they won't vote for change, which is what even a minority Conservative Government would bring.

[Polkergeist]

How long would a Conservative minority government last ? They have no natural allies in the Commons

[Hatman 🍁]

How long would a Conservative minority government last ? They have no natural allies in the Commons

Not very likely, unless they tried a grand coallition with the Liberals.

[2952-0-0]

The Liberals always tend to fall in the polls in the first few days after the writ. I think Harper scored a coup by supporting cutting the federal sales tax, but the Liberals will undoubtably try to trumpet the state of the economy (it has been going strong for the past few years).

[Frodo]

What likelihood is there of some sort of Grand Coalition between Liberals and Conservatives, with Stephen Harper as the PM but with very limited power and influence, much like what happened in Germany after the recent election?  It's uncanny how many parallels there are between the two elections.   

[2952-0-0]

What likelihood is there of some sort of Grand Coalition between Liberals and Conservatives, with Stephen Harper as the PM but with very limited power and influence, much like what happened in Germany after the recent election?  It's uncanny how many parallels there are between the two elections.   

I say very small, since the circumstances between Canada and Germany are different:

1. In Germany the Social Dems shut down the government. In Canada the opposition united to call the election.

2. Schroeder's government was unpopular but not seen to be corrupt. The reputation of the Liberals was flushed down the toilet time and time again.

3. The Libs and Tories are demonizing each other using negative campaigns. In Germany IIRC things were more civilized.

At this stage any final predictions are meaningless, though over the weekend I will (if I have time) list out swing seats.

[minionofmidas]

Every campaign in Germany for the last few decades has been quite negative ... but absent political advertising on tv, you don't notice it so much.