KY-4: Draft Ken Lucas

[Moooooo]

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http://www.draftkenlucas.com/

Anyone familiar Lucas and KY-4?  What are the odds of Lucas running and winning?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am familer with both. Ken Lucas is a socially conservative Democrat (especially on abortion) and has tended to be quite populist economically (while being a fan of tax cuts, he also usually got decent marks from Unions and rural development groups). IIRC he actually has a marked liberal streak on immigration, although I could be confusing him with someone else on that.
The district is very interesting and is made up of two main areas; Northern Kentucky (the Cincinnati metro area south of the Ohio) and a large (and for the most part very poor) rural/small town area, which is very industrial in places (especially towards the far east of the district, which includes Ashland and lots of old coal towns). Democrats are actually a majority in the district; with the exception of Lewis county (Republican since the Civil War) the eastern area is extremely Democratic by registration, while Northern Kentucky (which is heavily Catholic) is kinda mixed for the most part (IIRC Boone is heavily Republican though). Lucas used to win by racking up huge margins out east, while not getting totally thrashed in Northern Kentucky (actually he may have won Kenton county once. Not sure).
The district was formed in 1992 out of most of the old KY-4 (Northern Kentucky and Louisville suburbs IIRC) and about a third of the old KY-7 (ie; Carl Perkins old fiefdom) and was held by Bunning until he got elected to the Senate; Lucas picked up the open seat.

As for odds... I'd say he's quite likely to give it another go. Geoff Davis has had genuinely dire term so far and things aren't so rosy for the KY GOP as a whole (to risk understatement. Some new stuff on Fletcher's dubious came out recently). His chances of winning would be pretty high as well; I'd actually go so far as to say he'd be the favourite if he steps into the race.

[TeePee4Prez]

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http://www.draftkenlucas.com/

Anyone familiar Lucas and KY-4?  What are the odds of Lucas running and winning?

I'd rather vote for Lincoln Chaffee or Olympia Snowe than this guy.  What a DINO.  Who is the current Congressman and hwo conservative is he?  This candidate does not excite me.

[minionofmidas]

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http://www.draftkenlucas.com/

Anyone familiar Lucas and KY-4?  What are the odds of Lucas running and winning?

I'd rather vote for Lincoln Chaffee or Olympia Snowe than this guy.  What a DINO.  Who is the current Congressman and hwo conservative is he?  This candidate does not excite me.

It's a district where Bush had over 60%. Candidates that excite you or me don't win there. Nick Clooney didn't a year ago.

[TeePee4Prez]

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http://www.draftkenlucas.com/

Anyone familiar Lucas and KY-4?  What are the odds of Lucas running and winning?

I'd rather vote for Lincoln Chaffee or Olympia Snowe than this guy.  What a DINO.  Who is the current Congressman and hwo conservative is he?  This candidate does not excite me.

It's a district where Bush had over 60%. Candidates that excite you or me don't win there. Nick Clooney didn't a year ago.

Like Tim Holden, I'm going to have to gladly accept him for a liberal Dem couldn't win there.

[WMS]

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http://www.draftkenlucas.com/

Anyone familiar Lucas and KY-4?  What are the odds of Lucas running and winning?

I'd rather vote for Lincoln Chaffee or Olympia Snowe than this guy.  What a DINO.  Who is the current Congressman and hwo conservative is he?  This candidate does not excite me.

It's a district where Bush had over 60%. Candidates that excite you or me don't win there. Nick Clooney didn't a year ago.

Like Tim Holden, I'm going to have to gladly accept him for a liberal Dem couldn't win there.

Your sacrifice is noted.

[Galactic Overlord]

I am familer with both. Ken Lucas is a socially conservative Democrat (especially on abortion) and has tended to be quite populist economically (while being a fan of tax cuts, he also usually got decent marks from Unions and rural development groups). IIRC he actually has a marked liberal streak on immigration, although I could be confusing him with someone else on that.
The district is very interesting and is made up of two main areas; Northern Kentucky (the Cincinnati metro area south of the Ohio) and a large (and for the most part very poor) rural/small town area, which is very industrial in places (especially towards the far east of the district, which includes Ashland and lots of old coal towns). Democrats are actually a majority in the district; with the exception of Lewis county (Republican since the Civil War) the eastern area is extremely Democratic by registration, while Northern Kentucky (which is heavily Catholic) is kinda mixed for the most part (IIRC Boone is heavily Republican though). Lucas used to win by racking up huge margins out east, while not getting totally thrashed in Northern Kentucky (actually he may have won Kenton county once. Not sure).
The district was formed in 1992 out of most of the old KY-4 (Northern Kentucky and Louisville suburbs IIRC) and about a third of the old KY-7 (ie; Carl Perkins old fiefdom) and was held by Bunning until he got elected to the Senate; Lucas picked up the open seat.

As for odds... I'd say he's quite likely to give it another go. Geoff Davis has had genuinely dire term so far and things aren't so rosy for the KY GOP as a whole (to risk understatement. Some new stuff on Fletcher's dubious came out recently). His chances of winning would be pretty high as well; I'd actually go so far as to say he'd be the favourite if he steps into the race.

I don't know.  Frankly, I think Lucas' chances are fair.  Many times more than not, a congressperson fails to win back his seat against a successor, such as Dick Zimmer, Jay Dickey, or even another Kentucky Democrat, Scotty Baesler, who lost to Fletcher in a more marginal district that he once held.  For similiar reasons I think Ron Klink will find it tough going if he runs against Melissa Hart.  Lucas himself was almost defeated in 2002 by Davis, he won only by 52%-48%.  Also, for a district that gave Bush 63%, a lot of the area would have to shift back to the Democrats, including a lot of conservative Democrats that vote Republican almost all the time anyway, and I don't think Davis' initial 55%-45% victory should be anything to sneeze at.  Nick Clooney, despite being the father of a famous Hollywood liberal, ran as a moderate Democrat much like Ken Lucas, to no avail.  I don't know that Davis is particularly unpopular with his district, so I can't go off that.  Someone else may know.  I also don't know that Fletcher's troubles would necessarily spill over onto Davis, since we are talking about a division of state and national politics.  Did Governor Patton's then-high popularity spill over into electing Democrats to Congress?  I don't think the reverse will be true here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know.

By favourite I don't mean *overwhelming* favourite. I think he'd have an edge, he could still lose.

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It's true that ex-congressmen (or ex-MP's over here) often struggle to win back their old seats, but it doesn't mean it can't happen and it doesn't mean there isn't a good chance of it happening.
For several reasons (which have more to do with Davis's terrible start than anything Lucas has done) Lucas has (IMO anyway) a much better chance than most; if he chooses to run.

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True

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Not so; Democratic statewide candidates can (and have) polled fairly well in the district recently, and the Democrats still hold almost all the State House seats in the district. It's not really a Republican area; just a (very) socially conservative one.

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Clooney was seen as having a good chance to pull off a hold, right up until the debate in which he f***ed up big time. He had several other problems as well; his newspaper columns weren't always especially moderate, something that Davis was able to exploit pretty well.

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He's been hit by a couple of scandals (nothing huge though) if that helps

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The Fletcher scandals have tarred the KY Republicans as a whole and not just because so much of the party establishment has been caught up in them; part of the reason for their electoral success over the past decade or so, has been the contrast between them (seen as squeaky clean and all that) and the old (and often crooked) KY Democrat machines. This advantage has been blown away in less than a year, and it isn't *just* Fletcher; there was that weird mess over the one State Senate district in Louisville for instance.

[Ben.]

I tend to agree with Al the state the KY GOP’s in at the moment combined with likelihood of a rocky election for the GOP nationally next term, would help a strong candidate like Lucas no end… and he’s stand a good chance of winning. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Patton's troubles kept Jack Coneway from beating Anne Northrup in 2002.

[Galactic Overlord]

Yeah, there was the case of Jane Harman in California, who very narrowly beat her successor to win back her old seat.  I suppose having an ex-congressman run would really be the only way to put that seat back into play.  For territory that stuck by Jim Bunning so doggedly, I have to wonder why it would consider ejecting a Republican for a Democrat that although conservative would not be as conservative as Mr. Davis.  I suppose that is what makes me skeptical about this.  I also read somewhere that Davis actually got little help from the national Republicans when he almost beat Lucas, so this time he will have lots of financial support; Lucas will need to raise lots of money as well to keep up.

I wouldn't count Lucas out, but I figured the landscape wasn't quite in his favor.

[minionofmidas]

Nick Clooney, despite being the son of a famous Hollywood liberal, ran as a moderate Democrat much like Ken Lucas, to no avail.

Clooney was seen as having a good chance to pull off a hold, right up until the debate in which he f***ed up big time. He had several other problems as well; his newspaper columns weren't always especially moderate, something that Davis was able to exploit pretty well.

Oh, and as an aside, Nick Clooney is not the son of a famous Hollywood liberal. He's the father of one.

[Yates]

In Congress, Lucas received 80+ rankings from the ACU.  He is a Democrat who can win in the reddest of red areas.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What are the odds of Lucas running and winning?

If he ran, he'd probably destroy Geoff Davis.

Geoff Davis is a right-wing nut, and he's about as popular as a canker sore. Especially now that he called war opponents "treasonous".

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Who is the current Congressman and hwo conservative is he?

Geoff Davis. He's an extreme conservative.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't know that Davis is particularly unpopular with his district, so I can't go off that.  Someone else may know.

He's utterly hated.

[Yates]

What are the odds of Lucas running and winning?

Geoff Davis is a right-wing nut, and he's about as popular as a canker sore.

Canker sores are the worst.

[Sarnstrom]

From the Southern Political Report:

Political insiders are reporting to SPR that former Kentucky congressman Ken Lucas now appears to be set to announce a campaign for his old office in January.


HE'S IN!!

[Gustaf]

Isn't Lucas quite conservative?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't Lucas quite conservative?

Yes and no. He's very socially conservative (especially on abortion) but he's quite populist economically (on the one hand generally supporting tax cuts, on the other getting good marks from rural development groups and unions throughout his time in Congress).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

He's very socially conservative (especially on abortion) but he's quite populist economically

I think he actually voted AGAINST raising the minimum wage. He's almost as conservative as any Republican.

There's no way in hell I'd ever endorse Lucas, although I would vote for him if Davis was his only opponent, since Davis is even worse.

What this district needs is another Brent Spence.

[Sam Spade]

Lucas looked sort of out of it at the end of the race; his debate performance was simply atrocious.

Due to the growing exurbanization of this area, I suspect Geoff Davis will be around for as long as he wants to.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Lucas looked sort of out of it at the end of the race; his debate performance was simply atrocious.

Geoff Davis was the man who claimed during the debate that only 17 people had been killed in the war.

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The cities won't allow it. We just won't.

[Sam Spade]

Lucas looked sort of out of it at the end of the race; his debate performance was simply atrocious.

Geoff Davis was the man who claimed during the debate that only 17 people had been killed in the war.

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The cities won't allow it. We just won't.

What cities?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What cities?

The ones in the 4th District.