Canada 2006 Swing Ridings

[2952-0-0]

So I'll start here naming all the seats we should watch. If there are factual errors let me know:

Western Arctic, NWT
Last time around incumbent Liberal Ethel Blondin-Andrew defeated the NDP's Dennis Bevington by 53 votes. This riding is typically economically left-wing, and combined with the Liberal scandal, would translate to a lean to the NDP. However, up there people tend  to vote for the local candidate rather than the parties, and Blondin-Andrew has been seen as representing NWTers well. As long as the NDP puts on a more-than-competent campaign they should win.

Vancouver Centre, BC
This is the race to watch on the Left Coast. Longtime left-leaning Liberal Hedy Fry is facing a challenge from Svend Robinson, who was earier convicted for stealing a diamond ring from an auction house. Robinson remains popular among the left in BC (being the first openly gay MP). The swing towards the NDP might not be great this time, as in the May 2005 provincial election this area was expected to vote NDP but didn't.

Vancouver Kingsway, BC
David Emerson, a popular and influential cabinet member, won by less than 2000 votes last time over the NDP candidate, and this time around the NDP has run a popular Chinese candidate. This is a working-class district and naturally has an NDP tilt to it.

Burnaby New Westminster, BC
In 2004 all three major parties put up a strong showing. At the end the NDP won a razor-thin margin over the Liberals. Current Conservative candidate Marc Dalton is a parachute (carpetbagger) candidate who ran for the Tory nomination in the right-wing district of Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows/Mission in 2004 who emphasized "Family, Military, Faith" then. That doesn't work well in this socially left-wing district. Economically BNW is divided, and demographically has a rising income (swinging to the Liberals). the current MP is seen as Svend Robinson's protege, and it remains to be seen how that will turn out. This has a mild NDP lean.

North Vancouver, BC
Last time this was a Liberal vs. Tory race, with the Liberals edging out by 2000 votes. The Liberals have their natural problems to solve, but Don Bell has his own problems (He promised to oppose SSM but voted for it). The Tories have run someone socially right-wing who has ties to Focus on the Family, Cindy Silver. North Van is a suburban middle-to-high-income riding, and favours libertarian candidates. This will be a lackluster race, but I can say that as the Tories keep running social conservatives they're hastening Vancouver's image as "San Fran North".

Gotta have lunch now...sorry...

[Harry Hayfield]

So I'll start here naming all the seats we should watch. If there are factual errors let me know:

Western Arctic, NWT

Vancouver Centre, BC

Vancouver Kingsway, BC

Burnaby New Westminster, BC

North Vancouver, BC

I think those indeed can all be counted as swing ridings. Western Arctic requires a 0.20% swing from Lib to NDP to go to the NDP, Vancouver, Kingsway requires a 1.58% swing to go NDP, Vancouver North needs just a 0.46% swing from the Cons to go NDP. If you will give me some time to finish off Quebec (50 more to go), I'll compile a swingometer (something that might need some explaination) for the Conservatives and Liberals, and the NDP's top 50 targets

[2952-0-0]

The main impediment to Conservative success in Greater Vancouver is that they keep running social conservatives. I mean...this is San Franciso North!!! If Stephen Harper wants success he should emphasize more on economic issues to win the suburbs.

Continuing here...

West Vancouver/Sunshine Coast/Sea to Sky, BC
Popular Tory MP John Reynolds is retiring, and this time the Tories are running John Weston, a Harvard-educated fundie (by our standards) economist. West Van is an affluent suburb, and therefore economically conservative. The Sunshine Coast is resource-based NDP-leaning towns (though they are too small to give the NDP much chance here) that went for Reform back in the 90s out of populism. And the Liberals? They have Blair Wilson, who in 2004 lost to Reynolds by just 1700 votes. Will Weston's social conservatism cost his party this seat?

Surrey North, BC
This seat is currently vacant since the late Chuck Cadman, an Independent immensely popular here, died of cancer earlier this year. With Cadman out of the picture, the three parties are seeking this intensely. The NDP has high-profile candidate Penny Priddy. The Tories have *somewhat* gotten their act together and put out David Matta, a novice to politics. And the Liberals? They haven't nominated anyone yet.

Southern Interior, BC
This region is made of blue-collar logging and mining towns, the hippie enclave of Nelson (it has many American draft-dodgers) and the booming city of Kelowna. In 2004, this riding was VERY close (just 700 votes between Tories and NDP). The NDP did well here in the May provincial vote (which could, and COULD, reflect in the federal election). The incumbent Jim Gouk, a Tory, is not running for reelection. The Tories are running Dereck Zeisman, the NDP Alex Atamanenko and the Liberals (not that they have a chance here) Bill Profili.

Nanaimo-Alberni, BC
Last time the Tories won fairly comfortably, but since then they have declined. The NDP has risen somewhat, while many Liberal votes are bleeding away to the NDP. The retirement communities of Parksville and Nanaimo just keep on growing, giving the Tories more support, while blue-collar Port Alberni keeps shrinking in size. This riding probably has a slight Tory edge.

Victoria, BC
YESS!!! MY RIDING!!! Very popular MP David Anderson (Liberal) is not running again. David Mulroney, a no-name lawyer who ran in Saanich-Gulf Islands (my old riding beofore I moved here) for the Liberals, is running for them in Victoria. The NDP has Denise Savoie, a current member of the Victoria City Council. Demographically, this riding is totally urban, with areas of most income levels. This riding therefore has a (ugh!) slight NDP edge.

[Hatman 🍁]

Swing ridings in my area:

Ottawa Centre: Voted NDP last time because of the popularity of former leader Ed Broadbent. Will possibly switch over to the Liberals, which are traditionally strong in this riding, however it may be close.

Ottawa South: (my riding) Voted Liberal last time, but may switch over to the Conservatives because of the candidate, Allan Cutler. Cutler was the whistlblower on the sponsorship scandal, which is something even I can respect.

Ottawa West-Nepean: The incumbent Liberal will not be running. This riding was very close in 2004. The Conservative candidate is (or was) an MPP (member of provincial parliament) in a neighbouring riding, and was a popular guy.

Ottawa-Orleans: This is a suburban riding, that was very close last time. It has a large francophone population, but that doesn't seem to stop it from being close.

Gatineau: Gatineau, which is in Quebec (across the river) is a working class riding that was very close between the Liberals and the Bloc last time. It seems hard for me to grasp a separatist party so close to Parliament Hill, but it looks like it may happen. A number of civil servants are what keep the Liberals strong here, but Gatineau is considerably poorer then neighbouring Hull-Aylmer, and it's trending Bloc based on the lower class' tendancy to vote for the BQ.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Western Arctic, NWT
Last time around incumbent Liberal Ethel Blondin-Andrew defeated the NDP's Dennis Bevington by 53 votes. This riding is typically economically left-wing, and combined with the Liberal scandal, would translate to a lean to the NDP. However, up there people tend  to vote for the local candidate rather than the parties, and Blondin-Andrew has been seen as representing NWTers well. As long as the NDP puts on a more-than-competent campaign they should win.

Seems about right

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I think that that one will be within a few hundred votes either way... in the end, I have a suspicion that demographic changes (all the new yuppy homes going up) will be just enough to keep the riding red.

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Agree (and IIRC the BC NDP did well in the area) but the NDP's candidate (unless their website is wrong) is Ian Waddell again.

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Seems about right, although I thought that the MP for the other Burnaby riding (Siskay) is Robinson's protege. Seeing as he was MP for the area for so long, maybe both are.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Vancouver/Sunshine Coast/Sea to Sky, BC
Popular Tory MP John Reynolds is retiring, and this time the Tories are running John Weston, a Harvard-educated fundie (by our standards) economist. West Van is an affluent suburb, and therefore economically conservative. The Sunshine Coast is resource-based NDP-leaning towns (though they are too small to give the NDP much chance here) that went for Reform back in the 90s out of populism. And the Liberals? They have Blair Wilson, who in 2004 lost to Reynolds by just 1700 votes. Will Weston's social conservatism cost his party this seat?

Reynolds is retiring is he? If so... best chance for a Grit pickup in B.C methinks. But why on earth is the Sunshine Coast in the same riding as a posh suburb like West Vancouver?

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Blue collar 'burb. NDP polled very well in the provincial election here and should be able to pick it up federally.

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Methinks that the Dippers are favourites here. Historically most of this area swung between the NDP and the PC's.

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This'll come down to a turnout battle; I'd agree with a very slight Tory edge as the main Dipper efforts in non-Victoria metro parts of the Island are almost certainly going to be aimed at ultra-marginal Vancouver Island North.

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Damn those civil service unions, eh?
Mulroney is an appalling surname for a candidate of any party these days...

[Harry Hayfield]

Liberal Targets (to gain a majority)

Number   Name of riding
1   Simcoe, Grey
2   Regina, Lumsden, Lake Centre
3   Cambridge
4   Kildonan, St. Paul
5   Saskatoon, Humboldt
6   Newton, North Delta
7   Niagara West, Glanbrook
8   Newmarket, Aurora
9   Essex
10   Charleswood, St. James
11   Sault Sainte. Marie
12   Timmins, James Bay
13   Chicoutimi, Le Fjord
14   Nunavik, Eeyou
15   Niagara Falls
16   Halifax
17   Clarington, Scugog and Uxbridge
18   Oshawa
19   West Vancouver, Sunshine Coast
20   Haldimand, Norfolk
21   Dufferin, Caledon
22   St. John's South
23   Wellington, Halton Hills
24   St. John's North
25   Prince Edward, Hastings

[Harry Hayfield]

Conservative Targets to gain a Conservative majority

Number   Name of riding
1   Edmonton, Beaumont
2   Middlesex, Kent and Lambton
3   Northumberland, Quinte West
4   Burnaby, New Westminster
5   Chatham-Kent, Essex
6   Edmonton Centre
7   Burnaby, Douglas
8   Ottawa West and Nepean
9   Barrie
10   Skeena, Bulkley Valley
11   North Vancouver
12   Ottawa, Orléans
13   Brant
14   Ancaster, Dundas, Flamborough and Westdale
15   Nipissing, Timiskaming
16   Brampton West
17   Hamilton Mountain
18   Simcoe North
19   St. Catharines
20   Bonavista, Exploits
21   Burlington
22   Kitchener, Conestoga
23   Louis-Saint-Laurent
24   Parry Sound, Muskoka
25   Kenora
26   Tobique, Mactaquac
27   Whitby, Oshawa
28   Ottawa South
29   Richmond
30   West Nova
31   Saint John
32   Halton
33   Glengarry, Prescott and Russell
34   Nanaimo, Cowichan
35   Esquimalt, Juan de Fuca
36   Sarnia, Lambton
37   Peterborough
38   London, Fanshawe
39   Thunder Bay, Rainy River
40   Victoria
41   Fredericton
42   Welland
43   London West
44   Sault Sainte. Marie
45   Hamilton East, Stoney Creek
46   Saint Boniface
47   London North Centre
48   Ajax, Pickering
49   Pontiac
50   Kings, Hants
51   Oakville
52   Winnipeg South
53   Algoma, Manitoulin and Kapuskasing
54   Mississauga South
55   Oak Ridges, Markham
56   Guelph
57   Kitchener, Waterloo
58   Huron, Bruce
59   Mississauga, Streetsville
60   Bramalea, Gore and Malton
61   Vancouver South

[Hatman 🍁]

No analysis of mine, Al?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ottawa Centre: Voted NDP last time because of the popularity of former leader Ed Broadbent. Will possibly switch over to the Liberals, which are traditionally strong in this riding, however it may be close.

Will be a hell of a lot closer than last time (Broadbent thumped Mahoney by over 6000 votes) but the NDP should *just* about hang on; the civil service unions give the NDP a good base here (see also: Victoria) and I can't see many voters in Ontario switching *to*  the Liberals; turnout could be well down on 2004. And while the Liberals have a long history here federal, at provincial level the NDP used to have an MPP from the area until the '90's meltdown part one (1995).

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Not sure about this; if things go bad for the Liberals it could be very close... but... at the same time, "star" candidates often fail to make much of a difference to the final tally. But not always.

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Tories should gain this, if (and it might be a big if) the pro-Tory swing in Eastern Ontario in general and suburban Ottawa that began in the late '90's continues. I think either a pretty solid (say... over 2000 votes at least) win for the Tory or a very tight finish between the two parties...

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Demographic changes had been weakingly the Liberal hold here for years (an ominous warning signal happend in the 1999 provincial election when the Tories gained the seat in a big upset. And by a big margin too; even though they lost it in 2003 the warning was pretty clear) and had it not been for those astonishingly stupid remarks on bilingualism by a certain Tory MP, the Tories would have certainly picked this one up. Thing is, this time round they don't have the strong candidate they did last election and most of thier Ottawa efforts are likely to be concentrated in Ottawa West-Nepean. Could be close, but for now the Liberals are favourites.

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Gatineau was extremely (nay, shockingly) close last election. Just about everyone assumed it was safe as houses, but the BQ slashed the Liberal majority to below the crucial 1000 mark (the notional majority from 2000 was over 10,000) and are running the same candidate again. Initially looks like it could be a straightforward BQ gain, but several things seem to get in the way of that; in 2004 Gatineau was an open seat and first term incumbents can *usually* count on a little bounce in their direction, and secondly, the overall outcome in Quebec is very uncertain. Sure, the BQ are polling at around 58% (!) in most regional breakdowns, but the party (and seperatism in general) has a long history of overperforming in polls and the Liberals will be able to panic enough NDP and Tory leaners into voting for them by polling day (they always do). Also... the most reliable (IIRC) Quebec pollster, Leger,'s most recent poll had them on 48%. That poll is a month old now, and it'll be interesting to see a more recent one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa Centre: Voted NDP last time because of the popularity of former leader Ed Broadbent. Will possibly switch over to the Liberals, which are traditionally strong in this riding, however it may be close.

Will be a hell of a lot closer than last time (Broadbent thumped Mahoney by over 6000 votes) but the NDP should *just* about hang on; the civil service unions give the NDP a good base here (see also: Victoria) and I can't see many voters in Ontario switching *to*  the Liberals; turnout could be well down on 2004. And while the Liberals have a long history here federal, at provincial level the NDP used to have an MPP from the area until the '90's meltdown part one (1995).

Unfortunately, I will have to disagree with you. Mahoney is a strong candidate, and will win it in the end.

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Not sure about this; if things go bad for the Liberals it could be very close... but... at the same time, "star" candidates often fail to make much of a difference to the final tally. But not always.

[/quote]

Plus, a lot of the NDP vote last time was because the candidate was a "star", Monia Mazigh, plus factor in the unpopularity of Dalton McGuinty at the time, couldn't have helped his brother.  I expect a bit of a rebound, enough to keep this Liberal

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Tories should gain this, if (and it might be a big if) the pro-Tory swing in Eastern Ontario in general and suburban Ottawa that began in the late '90's continues. I think either a pretty solid (say... over 2000 votes at least) win for the Tory or a very tight finish between the two parties...
[/quote]
I agree, although it should be noted that only part of this riding is "suburban", at least using my defenition. The rest is inner-suburban generally with many urban areas too.

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Demographic changes had been weakingly the Liberal hold here for years (an ominous warning signal happend in the 1999 provincial election when the Tories gained the seat in a big upset. And by a big margin too; even though they lost it in 2003 the warning was pretty clear) and had it not been for those astonishingly stupid remarks on bilingualism by a certain Tory MP, the Tories would have certainly picked this one up. Thing is, this time round they don't have the strong candidate they did last election and most of thier Ottawa efforts are likely to be concentrated in Ottawa West-Nepean. Could be close, but for now the Liberals are favourites.
[/quote]

Who knows. It's a real toss up in my books

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Gatineau was extremely (nay, shockingly) close last election. Just about everyone assumed it was safe as houses, but the BQ slashed the Liberal majority to below the crucial 1000 mark (the notional majority from 2000 was over 10,000) and are running the same candidate again. Initially looks like it could be a straightforward BQ gain, but several things seem to get in the way of that; in 2004 Gatineau was an open seat and first term incumbents can *usually* count on a little bounce in their direction, and secondly, the overall outcome in Quebec is very uncertain. Sure, the BQ are polling at around 58% (!) in most regional breakdowns, but the party (and seperatism in general) has a long history of overperforming in polls and the Liberals will be able to panic enough NDP and Tory leaners into voting for them by polling day (they always do). Also... the most reliable (IIRC) Quebec pollster, Leger,'s most recent poll had them on 48%. That poll is a month old now, and it'll be interesting to see a more recent one.
[/quote]

There may be a glass ceiling of sorts in Gatineau, due to its federalist nature. I am thinking a lot of the gains in the polls for the BQ has been in already traditional separatist ridings, and not in federalist ridings like Gatineau. Although, the margin was so small, it wont take much.

[2952-0-0]

Esquimault Juan de Fuca, BC
Last time around many predicted that Keith Martin, who in 2003 (is that correct) changed from Alliance to Liberal, would lose to NDPer Randall Garrison. At the end Martin won by just over 2,500 votes in a tight race, while the Tories, who ran Martin's ex-aide John Koury, performed poorly. Martin is popular and well-liked here, but with the Liberals and Tories falling in BC, we might see the NDP (I think they have Garrison again?) win this.

Edmonton Centre, Alta.
This is just about the only competitive race in Alberta. Edmonton is relatively liberal, but that's where the advantage for incumbent Deputy PM Anne McLellan ends. First elected in '93 beating Reform candidate by twelve votes, she won re-election in '97, 2000 and 2004, earning the affectionate nickname "Landslide Annie". The right has always targeted her, and, up until now, failed. With the Conservatives soaring out here and the Liberals sagging, can Alberta become an ocean of blue come election night?

Denesthe/Missinippi/Churchill River, Sask.
Now that the NDP has largely abandoned its roots in rural Saskatchewan (either because of gerrymandering there or just a shift in attitudes) to focus on blue-collar towns and cities, this riding, which includes everthing north of and including Prince Albert, is fought between incumbent Tory Jeremy Harrison and Liberal Gary Merasty (a former Grand Chief of Aboriginal communities). Will Harrison (who has had a lackluster term) appeal to the large First Nations community (who also are rather pro-NDP)?

Regina-Qu'Appelle, Sask.
This riding went to Tory Andrew Scheener, beating NDPer Lorne Nystrom by less than 1,000 votes. Demographically, this is gerrymandered in favour of the Tories having drawn into it northeastern Regina and a sizeable chunk of the praries. I guess the NDP will work hard to take back a chunk of orange in their cradle. Nystrom is running for the NDP again, and this time he'll have to make sure the Liberals don't siphon left-wing votes from him like they did last time.

Saskatoon Humboldt, Sask.
Last time all three parties came within 450 votes of each other, with independent incumbent Jim Pankiw (a far far right-winger) garnering 7,000 votes. If enough Pankiw votes go for the Tories they will definitely win. IF. We can't assume so, since many people vote for controversial candidates just for protest. Take Pankiw out of the picture and it's back to partisn campaigning.

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Sask.
This riding includes Northwest Regina and parts of the praries. Rookie incumbent Tory Tom Lukiwski squeeked by last time, beating Liberal Gary Anderson by 122 votes. Now Anderson is running for the Liberals again, while NDP support slumped by 4,000 votes between 2000 and 2004 (which was likely due to the provincial NDP government's problemse three main parties are the same as in 2004. It's deja vu for them. It will be a squeeker.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll do some more Ontario ridings then:

Northumberland-Quinte West: One of the closest races last time between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Just one of those seats the tories have to pick up to form a government.

Oshawa: The only riding last time that had a Liberal incumbent, was predicted to go NDP and ended up going Conservative. One of the closest 3 way races you'll get. The recent job layoffs here at the GM plant will play a big role methinks.

Trinity-Spadina: Olivia Chow (Jack Layton's wife) will run for the third time. Will the third time be the charm? She was supposed to be a shoo-in in 2004, but the Liberals poured resources into the riding keeping it red.

Beaches-East York: A former MPP from neighbouring Trinity-Spadina, Marilyn Churley is running for the NDP in this NDP/Liberal swing seat. The Liberals won this pretty handidly last time, however.

Newmarket-Aurora: Belinda Stronach's riding! She won for the Conservatives last time by the slimest of margins. Can she win it for the Liberals? I say, of course! It was so close last time, I believe that any people in this riding upset she crossed the floor are Conservatives anyway. Any person who voted for her because she was Belinda will vote for her again, and she should win this by 5% or so.

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: Part urban Hamilton, part suburb. If this riding were the old Hamilton East, it would go NDP for sure. There was a by-election for Hamilton East in the Ontario Legislative Assembly back last fall, and the NDP candidate won 60% of the vote. However, this riding includes suburban Stoney Creek making it a lot closer. The Liberal MP is House leader Tony Valeri, who you will remember kicked out Sheila Copps in the nomination race in 2004.

Hamilton Mountain: Also an NDP/ Liberal race. I would imagine this area is a little wealthier than other parts of Hamilton, but still a close race. In fact, I think this is a 3 way race.

That's all I can think of off the top of my head. I am sure there are more though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Esquimault Juan de Fuca, BC
Last time around many predicted that Keith Martin, who in 2003 (is that correct) changed from Alliance to Liberal, would lose to NDPer Randall Garrison. At the end Martin won by just over 2,500 votes in a tight race, while the Tories, who ran Martin's ex-aide John Koury, performed poorly. Martin is popular and well-liked here, but with the Liberals and Tories falling in BC, we might see the NDP (I think they have Garrison again?) win this.

This one will depend on how the provincial swing goes... or to be more specific, if the Liberals keep to tradition and collapse in B.C about halfway through the campaign.

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Tories are polling obscenly high numbers in Alberta right now (they could well hit 70% apparently...) and I think this is the election when Landslide Annie finally loses.

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A confused and confusing riding. Harrison will poll extremely well in Meadow Lake (where he needs a high turnout) and some other townships in the south of the riding, but outside that area he will (again) do extremely badly (in many polls not even winning a single vote). His fate is out of his hands and things depend on how well the Liberals and NDP do. Laliberte's vote will probably head Dipper-ward as it was largely concentrated in the communities around Lake Athabasca (usually a solid NDP area). A total tossup that's dependent on turnout and factional factors; it's not even possible to predict whether it'll be close or not.
Oh and it doesn't include Prince Albert (the far north of the riding was pared with Prince Albert in the '80's though).

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If the Dippers take back just one seat in Sask, it'll be this one. Nystrom is a very strong candidate; moderate, experienced, a very high name recognition... and most importantly of all, he can still poll good numbers in most of the rural areas (especially his home town Wynyard). What did for him last election was the Liberal taking huge chunks out of his vote in Regina. How well he does depends on how well the NDP does in Saskatchewan... and that's very hard to tell right now. He's the favourite but it's not certain by how much.

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An odd seat this; I suspect that it'll go with the tide. I've yet to look at where Pankiw's votes came from so no further comments yet...

Wiebe is running in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar this time round. Could be a good race.

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Historically this has been one of the NDP's better seats in Saskatchewan (due to NDP strength in NE Regina) and Kovatch coming third was quite suprising. NDP did very badly in Regina last election; the key here will be to see how many NDP voters who voted Liberal switch back to their normal voting habits.
Up in the air basically...

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the key in Saskatchewan is turnout. The turnout in the cities was much lower than in rural areas.