Rasmussen: Menendez leads Kean by 4%

[TheresNoMoney]

Rasmussen (500 Likely Voters):

Menendez: 38%
Kean: 34%
Other: 9%
Not sure: 18%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/New%20Jersey%20Senate%20Dec%208.htm

Maybe the most interesting part of this poll is that 49% have no opinion of Menendez, and 49% have no opinion of Kean. 

[minionofmidas]

...ie neither man is all that well known. Is there a separate "who's that" figure as well?

[WalterMitty]

the nj should leave this great country asap.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wish it was Codey rather than Menendez we were talking about . Codey would be be leading Kean by considerably more than 4%

Dave

[TheresNoMoney]

Wish it was Codey rather than Menendez we were talking about . Codey would be be leading Kean by considerably more than 4%

I think Codey was everyone's first choice but he just had no interest. What a shame.

I actually think Rush Holt would make the best Senator, but he would've had trouble raising money for a Senate run. Menendez will have tons of money (hell, he already has over $4 million in COH before he was even selected).

[Moooooo]

Holts house seat would be tougher to hold too.

[Galactic Overlord]

Yeah, Dick Zimmer almost beat him in 2000, but wasn't his seat made more Democrat in redistricting?

[Keystone Phil]

Kean has a higher favorability rating than Menendez. What I don't understand is how Kean can be trailing Menendez in these polls (by a small amount though) yet other polls showed him beating Andrews (the second toughest candidate he could face).

[Smash255]

Kean has a higher favorability rating than Menendez. What I don't understand is how Kean can be trailing Menendez in these polls (by a small amount though) yet other polls showed him beating Andrews (the second toughest candidate he could face).

Possible thought is that the white support differencial between Andrews & Menendez is outweighed by the minority support differencial between the two of them.  Another thought is while Andrews, might be a tougher candidate, at this point Menendez may be more well known with higher name recognition than Andrews is

[ATFFL]

Kean has a higher favorability rating than Menendez. What I don't understand is how Kean can be trailing Menendez in these polls (by a small amount though) yet other polls showed him beating Andrews (the second toughest candidate he could face).

Possible thought is that the white support differencial between Andrews & Menendez is outweighed by the minority support differencial between the two of them.  Another thought is while Andrews, might be a tougher candidate, at this point Menendez may be more well known with higher name recognition than Andrews is

Excellent point on both.  Add to that the fact he is getting a lot of media coverage and you have a decent recipe for a bounce.

[Smash255]

Kean has a higher favorability rating than Menendez. What I don't understand is how Kean can be trailing Menendez in these polls (by a small amount though) yet other polls showed him beating Andrews (the second toughest candidate he could face).

Possible thought is that the white support differencial between Andrews & Menendez is outweighed by the minority support differencial between the two of them.  Another thought is while Andrews, might be a tougher candidate, at this point Menendez may be more well known with higher name recognition than Andrews is

Excellent point on both.  Add to that the fact he is getting a lot of media coverage and you have a decent recipe for a bounce.

Kean has also gotten quite a bit of media coverage, Andrews really hasn't, 

[True Democrat]

I think Cory Booker would have been an excellent choice.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kean has a higher favorability rating than Menendez. What I don't understand is how Kean can be trailing Menendez in these polls (by a small amount though) yet other polls showed him beating Andrews (the second toughest candidate he could face).

What do you mean by second toughest?  I don't see why anyone outside his CD would know who Andrews is.  At least Menendez has gotten some media attention as a potential statewide candidate for a while now.   Kean's higher favorability rating compared to the vote result is just indicates that people like his name more than his party affiliation.  A lot of people will vote for the candidate they "like" less if he is the right party.

[Keystone Phil]

Kean has a higher favorability rating than Menendez. What I don't understand is how Kean can be trailing Menendez in these polls (by a small amount though) yet other polls showed him beating Andrews (the second toughest candidate he could face).

What do you mean by second toughest?  I don't see why anyone outside his CD would know who Andrews is.  At least Menendez has gotten some media attention as a potential statewide candidate for a while now.   Kean's higher favorability rating compared to the vote result is just indicates that people like his name more than his party affiliation.  A lot of people will vote for the candidate they "like" less if he is the right party.

Andrews has run for Governor twice and has been mentioned as a Senate candidate (and Gubernatorial candidate again) many times now. Andrews is in the news a lot.

[© tweed]

Kean has a higher favorability rating than Menendez. What I don't understand is how Kean can be trailing Menendez in these polls (by a small amount though) yet other polls showed him beating Andrews (the second toughest candidate he could face).

What do you mean by second toughest?  I don't see why anyone outside his CD would know who Andrews is.  At least Menendez has gotten some media attention as a potential statewide candidate for a while now.   Kean's higher favorability rating compared to the vote result is just indicates that people like his name more than his party affiliation.  A lot of people will vote for the candidate they "like" less if he is the right party.

Andrews has run for Governor twice and has been mentioned as a Senate candidate (and Gubernatorial candidate again) many times now. Andrews is in the news a lot.

In that case, we have to draw the conclusion that Menendez is more popular right now than Andrews is.  Or go with the minority vote theory, which Smash pointed out and it makes sense.

As for this race; the GOP has a very good shot at winning, but it's still probably a 55% chance Menendez wins; it's a Democratic state, but a decent margin, in what's looking to be a Democratic year, and also, Menendez will no doubt have a huge cash advantage, not as disproportionate as Corzine's but still a big one.

[ATFFL]

Menendez will have some time in the senate which will greatly impact this race.

[minionofmidas]

In that case, we have to draw the conclusion that Menendez is more popular right now than Andrews is.  Or go with the minority vote theory, which Smash pointed out and it makes sense.

...which may also be a regional vote thing.
Republicans' hopes of winning in New Jersey seem to me to rest largely on getting South Jersey White Democrats disaffected with North Jersey Democratic machine politics to vote Republican. These people are there, they're not happy, but that doesn't seem to make em seriously ponder voting Republican - they may play with the notion for a poll or two. Probably due to issues with the state Republican Party...

 Andrews is from South Jersey... and seems to be very popular in South Jersey...and has run as something of a regional champion of South Jersey in the past apparently. He's quite possibly not well liked at all by your typical North Jersey Dem. Where's Kean from?

[minionofmidas]

Any comments on my theory?

[Keystone Phil]

In that case, we have to draw the conclusion that Menendez is more popular right now than Andrews is.  Or go with the minority vote theory, which Smash pointed out and it makes sense.

...which may also be a regional vote thing.
Republicans' hopes of winning in New Jersey seem to me to rest largely on getting South Jersey White Democrats disaffected with North Jersey Democratic machine politics to vote Republican. These people are there, they're not happy, but that doesn't seem to make em seriously ponder voting Republican - they may play with the notion for a poll or two. Probably due to issues with the state Republican Party...

 Andrews is from South Jersey... and seems to be very popular in South Jersey...and has run as something of a regional champion of South Jersey in the past apparently. He's quite possibly not well liked at all by your typical North Jersey Dem. Where's Kean from?

This is the classic example of north vs. south in NJ. Menendez has also long been the face of NJ Dem corruption. He'll be able to turn out the minority vote but when the guy leaves north Jersey, he won't be able to find much support elsewhere. Kean is from central NJ and won't have a problem in that area or south Jersey.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Where's Kean from?

Looking up on his State Senate district, it appears he's from Union county, which is pretty Democratic, but he's from the outer exurban fringe which is probably Republican. And his district consists mostly of VERY affluent North Jersey exurbia, the most Republican part of the state.

[Yates]

Upon seeing the results of this poll, I was immediately surprised.  However, after some thought, it is not very surprising at all.  Menendez is of the more powerful party in the state, has a sizable war chest, and appeals to minorities.

[Keystone Phil]

Upon seeing the results of this poll, I was immediately surprised.  However, after some thought, it is not very surprising at all.  Menendez is of the more powerful party in the state, has a sizable war chest, and appeals to minorities.

His war chest has done nothing yet when it comes to a Senate race. Every politico knew he was in the running but your average voter hasn't seen Menendez for Senate ads, lit, mail, etc.

[Yates]

Upon seeing the results of this poll, I was immediately surprised.  However, after some thought, it is not very surprising at all.  Menendez is of the more powerful party in the state, has a sizable war chest, and appeals to minorities.

His war chest has done nothing yet when it comes to a Senate race. Every politico knew he was in the running but your average voter hasn't seen Menendez for Senate ads, lit, mail, etc.

In that case, I would expect his lead to increase slightly in the coming months.  This is quite unfortunate.