Why do northern Canada and the Atlantic Provinces vote Liberal?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't get it. That seems like the party that they should like the least. I'd expect elections there to be mostly Conservative/NDP tossups, although it looks like the NDP might pick up the Northwest Territories. But it does seem strange.

[Tory]

Thank you for asking the question, I've often wondered this myself. I'm sure Al or one of the Canadians can give us an explanation.

[Hatman 🍁]

For the north, it's because it has a lot of first nations people. They vote en masse for the Liberals unless there is an NDP candidate they like.

This ties into the Atlantic too. Both are poorer regions, with higher welfare recipients. Perhaps they feel the Conservatives are more likely to take away their welfare. Although, the tories do hold every atlantic provincial government.

[minionofmidas]

A for the NDP's weakness in the Atlantic ... that's mostly historical. Until the 80s, they were a no-show there much as they still are in Quebec.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Part I...

North (Territories)

Three huge (in terms of area that is... in terms of population they are waaaay undersized. Nunavut only has about 17,000 registered voters for example) with very scattered populations. In all three candidates matter a lot more than parties, but despite this and many other similarities, the three Territories are very different;
 
With over 85% of the population being Inuit, NUNAVUT has (suprise, suprise) the highest % of aboriginals/first nations in Canada. Economically the territory is almost entirely reliant on Govt. transfer payments; pretty much the only jobs are in hunting/trapping/fishing and the service sector in places like Iqaluit (the capital). There are various longterm schemes to change this (everything from proposed mines to building a big road to Manitoba) but there have been for ages and nowt has happend.
The riding used to be called Nunatsiaq and has actually been held by all three major parties since the '70's, and although it's been solidly red since 1988, if one of the other parties can find a candidate with a lot of name recognition in the more remote Inuit communities, an upset is always possible.

In complete contrast, WESTERN ARCTIC [aka: NWT] is a booming mining centre (especially with diamonds) and hopes to profit from the oil & gas industry in the future. However, parts of the territory do resemble Nunavut and aboriginals make up half of the territory's population.
Like Nunavut, the territory has been held by all three major parties over the past few decades, but since 1988 it had been the personal fiefdom of Ethel Blondin-Andrew. She used to rack up big victories, but (in what would have been a huge upset) she was nearly taken out by Dennis Bevington (a well known former Mayor) and faces a tough fight for re-election this year.

Meanwhile YUKON has been struggling since the (almost total) death of mining in the territory and the government is now the largest employer. Unlike the other territories, the aborginal population in Yukon is relatively small (about 14% of the population).
The territory has shown little loyalty to any party over the years, but a great deal to incumbents; from 1957 until he resigned in 1987, Yukon was held (often by small margins) by Tory cabinet minister (and one time acting leader) Erik Nielsen. After he resigned, it was picked up by the hapless Audrey McLaughlin who the NDP stupidly elected as their leader in the late '80's. When she retired a more-or-less unknown Dipper just about fended off a Reform challenge in '97, until losing to the current Liberal incumbent in 2000.

[Bono]

Because they don't know any better.

[minionofmidas]

Part I...

North (Territories)

Three huge (in terms of area that is... in terms of population they are waaaay undersized. Nunavut only has about 17,000 registered voters for example) with very scattered populations. In all three candidates matter a lot more than parties, but despite this and many other similarities, the three Territories are very different;
 
With over 85% of the population being Inuit, NUNAVUT has (suprise, suprise) the highest % of aboriginals/first nations in Canada. Economically the territory is almost entirely reliant on Govt. transfer payments; pretty much the only jobs are in hunting/trapping/fishing and the service sector in places like Iqaluit (the capital). There are various longterm schemes to change this (everything from proposed mines to building a big road to Manitoba) but there have been for ages and nowt has happend.

Not that "building a big road to Manitoba" would change anything... except for creating a large number of maintenance jobs paid for by the federal government.
What it might do though is lowering the cost of living. Anything imported is insanely expensive up there - which means people pretty much have to supplement their government transfer income with hunting/trapping/fishing ... and now climate change makes that A LOT more difficult. Anybody doubting global warming should just speak to a Nunavut Inuk for 2 minutes...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because they don't know any better.

No where near being true; every single riding in the Atlantic and all three of the Territories have had a non-Liberal M.P in the past 30 odd years (and in almost all cases, quite recently).

[KEmperor]

Part I...

North (Territories)

Three huge (in terms of area that is... in terms of population they are waaaay undersized. Nunavut only has about 17,000 registered voters for example) with very scattered populations. In all three candidates matter a lot more than parties, but despite this and many other similarities, the three Territories are very different;
 
With over 85% of the population being Inuit, NUNAVUT has (suprise, suprise) the highest % of aboriginals/first nations in Canada. Economically the territory is almost entirely reliant on Govt. transfer payments; pretty much the only jobs are in hunting/trapping/fishing and the service sector in places like Iqaluit (the capital). There are various longterm schemes to change this (everything from proposed mines to building a big road to Manitoba) but there have been for ages and nowt has happend.

Not that "building a big road to Manitoba" would change anything... except for creating a large number of maintenance jobs paid for by the federal government.
What it might do though is lowering the cost of living. Anything imported is insanely expensive up there - which means people pretty much have to supplement their government transfer income with hunting/trapping/fishing ... and now climate change makes that A LOT more difficult. Anybody doubting global warming should just speak to a Nunavut Inuk for 2 minutes...

No doubt that the reason that everything is insanely expensive up there is the difficulty of transporting goods up there.  I would think a well maintained road would probably help with that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Part I...

North (Territories)

Three huge (in terms of area that is... in terms of population they are waaaay undersized. Nunavut only has about 17,000 registered voters for example) with very scattered populations. In all three candidates matter a lot more than parties, but despite this and many other similarities, the three Territories are very different;
 
With over 85% of the population being Inuit, NUNAVUT has (suprise, suprise) the highest % of aboriginals/first nations in Canada. Economically the territory is almost entirely reliant on Govt. transfer payments; pretty much the only jobs are in hunting/trapping/fishing and the service sector in places like Iqaluit (the capital). There are various longterm schemes to change this (everything from proposed mines to building a big road to Manitoba) but there have been for ages and nowt has happend.

Not that "building a big road to Manitoba" would change anything... except for creating a large number of maintenance jobs paid for by the federal government.
What it might do though is lowering the cost of living. Anything imported is insanely expensive up there - which means people pretty much have to supplement their government transfer income with hunting/trapping/fishing ... and now climate change makes that A LOT more difficult. Anybody doubting global warming should just speak to a Nunavut Inuk for 2 minutes...

No doubt that the reason that everything is insanely expensive up there is the difficulty of transporting goods up there.  I would think a well maintained road would probably help with that.

Yeah, but it would be insanely expensive. Remember, Nunavut is 3 times the size of Texas but its population could fit into Giants Stadium 3 times.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Part II

Newfoundland & Labrador

The politics of Newfoundland have always had a distinct sectarian flavour to them, with the first Liberal party being formed in the early 19th century by [largely Irish] Catholics and Methodists unhappy with the Anglican political establishment. Shortly after Newfoundland was granted responsible government, the Methodists left the Liberals and politics took on a strict Protestant-Catholic divide with the Tories being the Protestant party and the Liberals being the Irish Catholic party. While the party system underwent repeated and often major changes from the late 19th century onwards, the basic pattern of support remained until the collapse of responsible government in the 1930's.
Things changed dramatically following the first (and inconclusive) referendum on Confederation in 1948 as word got around that the Catholics had voted against Confederation. The Orange Order (of which Smallwood was a member) ordered it's members to vote for Confederation on the grounds that the Catholics were opposed... and this, combined with Joey Smallwood's socialist rhetoric (including, significantly, strong attacks on the St John's business community) resulted in a narrow victory for Confederation, Newfoundland joining Canada, and the old political order being turned on it's head.
The federal Liberals had been in favour of Newfoundland joining Canada, meaning that overwhelmingly Protestant pro-Confederates aligned themselves with the Liberals, while the largely Catholic anti-Confederates joined forces with the federal Tories. This division was replicated provincially and for most of Joey Smallwood's long reign over Newfoundland the only Tory MHA's represented heavily Catholic areas on the Avalon peninsular.
Smallwood ruled Newfoundland from Confederation until he was narrowly ousted, after months of confusion, in 1972. His time in power was marked by a tendency to go for huge mega-projects (notably the Churchill Falls dam) and equally huge amounts of social spending, resulting in him becoming extremely popular across rural Newfoundland. As time went by he grew increasingly autocratic and the Liberals lost all but one riding (on the south shore) in the 1968 federal election. He finally lost power three months after the tied 1971 election. In 1974 he was forced out of the Liberals and set up the Liberal Reform Party; this split in the Liberal ranks ended the party's dominence over the province and provincial politics has never been the same since.
Federally the Liberals have dominated (with a few exceptions, with the most recent being in 1997... and even then the party didn't collapse in the way it did in Nova Scotia) and are still strongest in rural, Protestant areas, while the Tories remain strong in largely Catholic St John's and the Catholic parts of the Avalon peninsular. The NDP has never really been able to get off the ground in Newfoundland; it never had any chance to become a major (or even minor) player in the '50's and '60's (for obvious reasons) and hasn't done very well since then; mainly due to a complete lack of organisation. That said the party often comes close to shocking various "safe" Liberal incumbents in rural ridings (although they've not actually broken through since the late '70's) and Tories in St John's by-elections. In the long run it's prospects could be bright. Provincially the party holds two seats; Labrador West (the centre of the iron mining industry) and one seat in the most rundown part of St John's.

[minionofmidas]

Can you highlight the edits please, I want to see what's changed? Thanks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can you highlight the edits please, I want to see what's changed? Thanks.

I just changed one thing; I added the little bit about Smallwood being a member of the Orange Order.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting analysis, Al. I don't often associate religion with politics, at least not in Canada. I looked at the statistics, and the two St. John's ridings are the only two with more Catholics than Protestants. However, they are close, as is Avalon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't often associate religion with politics, at least not in Canada.

It's not really overt anymore; more the basis for hereditary reflex voting patterns. It's why, despite everything, rural Newfies is so hard for other parties to break into; it's why (for example) Rex Barnes lost in 2004 or why Fonse Faour lost in 1980.

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Sounds about right.