Chile Presidential Election

[ag]

What about Mongolia though? The country oddly went from a despotic one party regime to a free and fair democracy rather quickly in the 90s, yet the party of that regime won the first free and fair elections and did until 1996, and stilll hold half the seats in the Parliament + the Presidency. And they haven't even changed their name.

Who knows? But the Soviet explanations applies: they had 70 years of Communism - long enough for any sort of divisions to be smoothed through attrition or annihilation (especially, given the relatively primitive nature of Mongollian society and government pre-Communism and the physical extermination of the entire Buddhist monkhood). 

[ag]

They aren't, or, at least, only do this within the limits generally approved of by a vast majority of sensible economists. 

Don't forget that Bono doesn't like those.

Do not confuse Venezuela-style crazies with run-of-the-mill LatAm lefties - in the last few years most of these were a lot bigger on words than on deeds.

Actually that's true of Chavez too.

  The first thing most of these lefty presidents do, is appoint a credibly conservative finance minister.  Chavez might do what some of them talk about, but none of them dare to follow his suit (since, unlike Chavez, none of the rest are certifiably nuts).

Two words: Evo Morales. He might do what Chavez only talks about...

It is almost the same as in Spain (though the Spanish right did manage to win on occasion by distancing itself somewhat from the past): I know of many fairly conservative Spaniards who even now literally have a choice of voting Sociallist or Communist, since voting for the Right for them is equivalent to High Treason. In fact, I know a very conservative Spaniard (not a Catalan, and a George Bush admirer, by the way) who votes for Catalan Nationalists (they are the only non-leftists untainted by the Franquist past - they were anti-Franco anti-Sociallists).

He's certainly a resident of Catalonia in that case - they don't run candidates anywhere else. 

Both Chile and Spain have been divided by the dictatorships into two camps, almost two tribes, that want nothing to do with one another, and in both cases the strictly anti-right camp is larger (though not a majority).

Actually, that was the situation in Spain before the Civil War. Much more so then than now.

1. Well, but still does not change the fact that even political conservatives in those countries would tend to do the same (see Mexico's PAN government).

2. Chavez is crazy enough - he's done everything possible to make sure that once the oil prices go down Venezuela gets screwed for a long time to come.  Even the educated lefties have fled him or been banished from the government (I have common friends with his former right-hand - or should it be "left-hand" - man in economic matters: despite his Chicago Ph.D. they guy was known for his work on theoretical Marxism; I am embarassed to say that one of those papers he co-authored with a friend of mine - but that guy is simply a mathematician, he'd co-author with anyone on anything; still, even the smart Marxist was forced to leave the government: turned out he was only far-left, but not criminally insane, which has become a job requirement for the current government officials). Of course, he is not crazy enough to stop selling oil, since he wouldn't be able to do the rest of his crazyness in this case.

Evo Morales might actually stop producing fuels. That, of course, is a new height. But Bolivia is of little consequence regionally, and if he turns out to be too crazy, we'd simply have two Bolivias.

3. Yeah. A job in Barcelona is handy for this. They guy even learned some Catalan!

4. True. But the dictatorship preserved the division for a long time: for over 35 years the two sides continued to fear and hate each other in private, and the hatred grew beyond bounds.  Of course, it could have been the same had the left won and established a dictatorship of its own.

[ag]

Well, Conservatives (Popular Party) only had one term of a majority government - and even then they had less than 45% of the vote. They had formed a minority government for the previous term (with support of some regional nationalists), but then they didn't even have 39%. I am pretty sure those were their best performances. The previous sociallist government was (barely) defeated amid huge scandals and after an unhealthily lengthy term.

But their last two governments were minority governments quite comparable to Aznar's first term. It's not as if the Socialists had had solid majorities, then suddenly imploded under scandal a la Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives. They just hung on in close competition twice before losing.

Romanian Communists were simply violently banned and there is no historic continuity between any of the current parties and them.

Not with the party, but with some of the post-90 politicians.

Still, they only won an election after a highly scandalous period of a nasty nationalist rule, and could only form a government in a coalition with a hardcore liberal party and with a Prime-Ministerial candidate who was not a party member.

They've been in power twice though IIRC.

4. In East Germany the success of the PDS is due to their redefinition as a regional party, with East-West division becoming the relevant tribal divide. Still, they've never attaigned 50% of the vote almost anywhere.

Oh yes.

1. Spain. It is true that Spanish right can, sometimes, win an election - but only under very favorable circumstances (as they did in the 1990s). They do start with a severe disadvantage of having a large share of the electorate finding them as (un)acceptable as NSDAP. Of course, there is also a large segment of the society that equates the Sociallists with the Russian Commies, but it is smaller (and the link is less sticky and damaging, since Sociallists lost the War, and and Franco won and had almost 40 years to screw things up).  In an even election the left will always be ahead (even though, unlike the right its votes are split between Communists and Sociallists and frequently wasted due to the effects of the electoral system). Furthermore, the left also will always find it much easier to form a minority government, since all the regional/nationalist parties (with the exception of the Catalan CiU) are leftist, and they all (including CiU) are still mindful of the Right's links with Franco.

2. Hungary. I might be forgetting their first victory. But, as I said, Hungarian Sociallists had done a lot to "rehabilitate" themselves even before they lost power for the first time. Even in the early 1980s Hungarian regime under Janos Kadar was very mild (not even close to being comparable to GDR's, Russia's or Romania's - or, for that matter, Franco's), so the old sins were superceded by the benign decades that followed.

[猫主席]

Bump. Runoff is on Sunday.

[YoMartin]

Yes, today´s THE day. Bachelet should win. After the first round I expected a 55%-45% in the ballotage, and that might just be the scenario today. Piñera is more of a middle-class right winger, Lavin is a lower class right winger. Those votes just don´t transfer automatically from one to another. It´s not simply a matter of seeing who is next to the other candidate in an ideological (Downs-like) scale. I don´t see poor and authoritarian-conservative Lavin voters going 100% to liberal-conservative (and multi-millonaire) Piñera. Piñera has recently criticised Pinochet quite strongly, reaching for centrist (Christian-Democratic) voters, but he may lose far-right voters with that. Or he may be trying to establish himself as a moderately conservative leader of the opposition, looking to 2010, when the pro/anti Pinochet cleavage will definitely be over. The Christian-Democrats are in an odd situation, loosing support in every election and are currently minoritarian against the PS-PPD-PRSD sub-bloc within the Concertación (PPD-PS linkage is not as close as, say, CDU-CSU in Germany, but almost; Lagos actually is a member of both parties, I think). The truth is Christian-Democracy meant something as a centrist option during the Cold War, but today that position in the ideoogical spectrum seems useless.

About Spain, I don´t think the PP is tightly associated with Franco to the majority of voters. Aznar and Rajoy belong to a different generation than Fraga and the other leaders of the party in the 1980´s (just like Felipe Gonzalez was a young socialist in the 70´s, not associated with the 1930´s socialists). They formed government twice (and would have for a third time if 11-M and the government´s obvious mismanagement and lies about it hadn´t occured). Yes, they needed partners for that, but nowadays everybody does in Spain, which is not only a multi-party system, but many different party systems (Catalunya, Pais Vasco, Galicia, etc.) in one. They use a pro-majoritarian PR, but still is very unlikely to get a majority with so many relevant parties competing. And, as somebody said, UCD governments in the late 70´s and early 80´s had many former Franco aids, starting with PM Suarez. Suarez was a true democrat (and maybe even a center-left policitian, if we check carefully), but he had a long history within the Franco regime, and that didn´t prevent him from winning a couple of elections.

Well, let´s see what happens today, I hope for a Bachelet win, and right now I nominate Ricardo Lagos if there´s ever a "President of the World" election.

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

We had one. He got to second or third place.

[Sibboleth]

Bachelet has won by about 6pts; tuther guy hath conceeded

[YoMartin]

53,5% - 47,5% seems to be the definitive result (http://www.elecciones.gov.cl). Men and women voted similarly, but I think in previous elections women tended to be more conservative. Turnout looks very similar than in the first round. Piñera´s numbers could be almost exactly what he and Lavin got in the first round combined (25% and 23%), but until we see what the polls say it´s impossible to be sure if that´s true or just a coincidence (and an ecological fallacy). The same goes with Bachelet adding the communist/humanist vote (46% and 5,5%). The whole election numbers seem a replay of 2000. Polls will tell if that´s a coincidence or if the same people voted the same parties in both elections (I´m inclined to this possibility).

I was checking how elections went in the different areas: Bachelet lost 70-30 in the place where she lives, Las Condes (which is not surprising since its a rich community). Her worst result, I think, is right next town, in Vitacura, 76-24. But she won in 12 of the 13 regions in which the country is divided.

Oh, I meant a "real" election to preside over the world. I could also go with Clinton, or even Blair is he becomes unemployed soon...

[MSUfan]

Women have made strides in politics of late.

1-Merkel elected chancellor of Germany

2-That african women becoming president in some african country

3-and now this.

[Parlez-vous Platypus?]

53,5% - 47,5% seems to be the definitive result (http://www.elecciones.gov.cl). Men and women voted similarly, but I think in previous elections women tended to be more conservative. Turnout looks very similar than in the first round. Piñera´s numbers could be almost exactly what he and Lavin got in the first round combined (25% and 23%), but until we see what the polls say it´s impossible to be sure if that´s true or just a coincidence (and an ecological fallacy). The same goes with Bachelet adding the communist/humanist vote (46% and 5,5%). The whole election numbers seem a replay of 2000. Polls will tell if that´s a coincidence or if the same people voted the same parties in both elections (I´m inclined to this possibility).

I was checking how elections went in the different areas: Bachelet lost 70-30 in the place where she lives, Las Condes (which is not surprising since its a rich community). Her worst result, I think, is right next town, in Vitacura, 76-24. But she won in 12 of the 13 regions in which the country is divided.

Oh, I meant a "real" election to preside over the world. I could also go with Clinton, or even Blair is he becomes unemployed soon...

Hey, I worked bloody hard to get Lagos through. Didn't win, but second's pretty good :p

[YoMartin]

I need to check this forum more frequently so I can vote in such occasions...