Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[windjammer]

It's going to be super close right ?

[Estrella]

It's going to be super close right ?

Yup, that's the only thing we can be sure about.

[Estrella]

Would actually be interesting to see a voter flow chart for these two elections.

You know what, close enough.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are the random Matovic municipalities still mostly gypsy like in the parliament elections?

[RGM2609]

So Korcok only lost compared to Caputova among ethnic Hungarians?

[Estrella]

So Korcok only lost compared to Caputova among ethnic Hungarians?

Yes, and massively so. By the looks of it, something like a quarter or even a third of Hungarians voted for Čaputová last time and for Forró or Pellegrini this time. Matovič of all people also did a bit better than average with Hungarians. OĽANO actually did okay with Hungarian voters last year and has high-profile figures like Gábor Grendel.

Since we're on this topic, two more bits of trivia:
- Most-Híd was majority Hungarian but still a genuinely multiethnic party, but obviously none of the Slovaks who voted for Bugár would vote for Forró. Still, in the northeast you can see a tiny, half-percent remnant of Most's Rusyn vote.
- Dunajská Streda and Komárno are the two districts with a Hungarian majority. The share of Hungarian population is higher in DS and ethnic parties have always done better there. Over the past decade, the northern half of the DS district has turned from a kind of backwards rural area with a Palermo-esque reputation for crime into Bratislava commuterland. DS still has a higher percentage of Hungarian population, but Alliance last year and Forró now both did slightly better in Komárno.

Korčok however more than made up for that loss. Northern conservative voters supported Mikloško last time and in the early polls they actually went for Kubiš of all people, but KDH ended up endorsing Korčok despite his liberal background. Milan Majerský seemed unenthusiastic at the start, but he ended up being as active a campaigner for Korčok as Korčok himself. The effort paid off: just look at the 10/15/20 point increases for Korčok in the north of the country.

This morning I'm proud that conservative and Christian voters understood what is at stake in this election. It isn't about cultural and ethical questions, it's about preserving the rule of law, it's about making sure that in the Presidential Palace there's someone who can say to Robert Fico: no, it won't be like that.

Are the random Matovic municipalities still mostly gypsy like in the parliament elections?

Yes, but only some of those OĽANO 2023 municipalities voted for him (many others went for Pelle), and it was by much smaller margins and with like 10% turnouts.

As for the sole Kotleba municipality, it's a place called Hrlica. Kotleba won 39%, which sounds like a lot but it's actually 10 votes out of 26. Pellegrini got 8 votes, Harabin 6, Matovič 1, Náhlik 1 and Korčok zero.

This is in fact the second time in a row Hrlica is the only municipality in Slovakia to vote for ĽSNS:

what's up with the town that voted LSNS?

A tiny, run-down village called Hrlica (check the Streetview) with 53 inhabitants. ĽSNS won 42% (14 votes), followed by Smer (30%, 10 votes) and Hlas (12%, 4 votes). Sme rodina got 2 and KDH, Republika and Communists one each.

This made me curious, so I checked how they voted in the past. ĽSNS won 53% (20/38 votes) in 2020 and Kotleba won 77% (23/30 votes) in 2019. In the last local elections, ĽSNS won all five seats on the village council (but there were no other candidates), and the ĽSNS candidate was elected mayor with 70% (28/40 votes) against three other candidates, two of which received zero votes – including the outgoing mayor running for reelection. Who says local politics is boring?

As a fun bonus, one of the few municipalities where Harabin won is called Pravica ("right wing").

[Estrella]

Harabin announced he isn't going to endorse anyone and called Pellegrini an "ultraliberal" and an "illegitimate candidate". However, after some convincing SNS came out with an endorsement of Pellegrini, and there's obviously a lot of overlap between their voters. Kubiš met with both Korčok and Pelle, but it seems like he won't endorse anyone. Matovič will meet with Korčok and probably will endorse him too, but who knows. He obviously won't endorse Pellegrini, whom he called "a servant of the mafia". Dubovský endorsed Korčok, while Kotleba accused even Harabin of being a liberal in disguise, never mind Pelle. Forró said he'll "meet with Pellegrini first, and then we'll see" and any endorsement will be decided by the Alliance party council.

Easter has thrown a spanner in the already short campaign. It's kind of like Thanksgiving in terms of people travelling to visit family and voters' attention will be elsewhere. On top of that, the campaign moratorium starts next Thursday, so candidates effectively only have five or so days of useful campaigning available. Korčok is certainly making use of it: he held rallies in Bratislava and Košice with turnout in the thousands. Meanwhile Pellegrini published a few Facebook posts with standard Smer talking points about how he is "the candidate of peace" and Korčok is "the candidate of war". He's made zero TV appearances and sent out Hlas ministers to attack Korčok in political talkshows instead.

As for Fico's role in this election, I think this op-ed gets it spot on.

Yes, it is true that Fico and Smer have supported Pellegrini's candidacy, but the sincerity with which they support this (from their point of view) opportunistic traitor is best evidenced by Fico's post-election statement. In it, he acted as if everything was going according to plan and that he considered Pellegrini a better candidate in the second round.

Note the diction, Fico completely neglected to judge Ivan Korčok – he did not make him a latte-drinking Beelzebub crossed with a progressive Lucifer, he just shrugged and said that Pellegrini was a bit better. That's not exactly an expression of unwavering support. Well, if wavering isn't the most accurate term, let's try saying he almost doesn't care.

Certainly, from a purely political point of view, Fico's optics should be unambiguous – he'll put a submissive figure with barely conceivable emancipatory potential in the palace, thereby significantly weakening Hlas and setting it up for further slicing and ultimately absorption. On the other hand, Pellegrini's defeat is not the worst outcome either. For he will emerge from the contest shaken and knowing that the Smerist stigma has not been forgotten by the people; in fact, he is at Fico's mercy forever, creating the precondition for final submission. (If it hasn't happened yet.)

But there are other considerations than political ones. At the time of Pellegrini's betrayal, Fico made no secret of his contempt for this person, who owed all his functions to his mother party and in a crisis stabbed it in the back with a rusty kindjal. That will not be forgotten. Moreover, in this particular case, we are talking about the highest constitutional office, which Fico himself was denied in an extremely humiliating way when he was beaten over the head by a political amateur. And now it should be given to this colourless citizen?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I still don't understand what Pellegrini was expecting going with Fico. Obviously a cutthroat politician like Fico wasn't just going to forgive or forget, and Hlas loses its whole raison d'être as a party if it backs the party it was rebelling against. He was such a promising figure but I guess he just wasn't cut out for Slovak politics.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Forro endorses Pelle: https://ujszo.com/kozelet/forro-es-a-magyar-szovetseg-pellegrinit-tamogatja-az-elnokvalasztas-masodik-fordulojaban

[Estrella]

Forro endorses Pelle: https://ujszo.com/kozelet/forro-es-a-magyar-szovetseg-pellegrinit-tamogatja-az-elnokvalasztas-masodik-fordulojaban

Over the heads of his party, apparently. Alliance deputy leader Szabolcs Mózes published this incredible statement:

I was dismayed to learn that the outgoing president of the Hungarian Alliance did not abide by the decisions of the party's executive committee over the weekend. Not only convention, but also elementary logic and political culture demand that the party should negotiate with both of the two candidates for the presidency who are to be elected, if there is a willingness to do so. Once this has been done, the party's executive should take a decision on the matter.

Neither of these conditions has been met. It is astonishing that the members of the party bureau - and the Hungarian people - have to find out from Ivan Korčok's FB page that there will no longer be a negotiation with him, and that they can find out from a live broadcast on Peter Pellegrini's FB page who the party's first-round candidate - and, according to some interpretations, the party itself - will support in the second round.

You cannot gamble with the future of a party or the honour of the Hungarian people like this. On behalf of the Hungarian Alliance, I apologise to all Hungarian people of good conscience!

As for Pellegrini, he still keeps to the sidelines while Hlas and SNS (but not Smer) actually do the campaigning for him. In fact, the most newsworthy thing Pelle did over the last few days was taking a private plane for the 400 km trip from Bratislava to Košice. Andrej Danko said that "Korčok played a part in the bombing of Yugoslavia", the Minister of Labour keeps saying that "Korčok will do everything to collapse the government and cancel all social benefits" (how a powerless ceremonial president can do that, he doesn't say) and other ministers try to associate Korčok with the unpopular Matovič/Heger governments. Really, this isn't a bad strategy – it's certainly better than when Šefčovič was acting like he's more Catholic than the Pope. In fact, religion has been mentioned only once during the campaign, when the government announced special security measures for Easter because the Moscow attack was "aimed at the Christian community" and because a Tajik terrorism suspect was located in Slovakia... except that he's a human rights activist considered a terrorist only by the Tajik government and is currently in custody awaiting deportation.

There are three big problems here though. One, it's all being done at press conferences and random media scrums that will only reach the most engaged voters. Two, Korčok was never closely associated with Matovič and the things that made him so hated. And three, if you want to paint a picture of your opponent as associated with an unpopular past government, doing it for the first time a week before the election is simply way too late and comes off as grasping at straws, because it is. Pellegrini's campaign is incredibly incompetent, not because he did something stupid but because he acted as an ínvincible frontrunner for so long that he ended up being not being one.

Korčok's first round campaign was just as bad, albeit for different reasons. Somehow, it dramatically improved in the week before the first round and now it's just unrecognizable. The reality may be different, but it gives the appearance of a well-organized campaign with a clear plan and purpose. He has new billboards with the wordplay slogan poslušne a prázdne alebo slušne ale rázne – obediently and emptily, or decently but decisively. He's holding rallies in mid-sized towns and hundreds of people have shown up despite often being announced only hours beforehand. I'm not sure how indicative it is of his support, but as Slovakia's most skilled campaigner, a certain Robert Fico said a few weeks ago, "we have analyses that confirm that a rally with a thousand people will reach another eighty thousand, because these people make a chain. They come home, and they talk and talk."

We don't have any new polls yet, but there's a lot of talk about how Korčok has the momentum. Also, it's not like these are all that reliable, but Korčok and Pelle are now tied in betting odds (btw the first round campaign was so boring that I saw more ads for betting on the election than for the candidates). On the day after the election, I said that I expect Pellegrini to win 52-48 or so. That outcome still wouldn't surprise me, but if it does happen, it will be thanks to SNS and their outreach to Harabin voters rather than anything Pelle did. Really, the runoff is just a tossup now.

And Pellegrini is not the only Hlas politician who is having a bad time. Matúš Šutaj Eštok, Minister of the Interior and general manager of Hlas is in hot water after... look, I'll just quote this article from the (very right-wing) newspaper Postoj. It's very opinionated, but rightly so.

Minister of the Interior at Bombic / Matúš Šutaj Eštok has gone mad

Last year, when Tibor Gašpar, Erik Kaliňák, Robert Kaliňák, Robert Fico and finally Andrej Danko appeared in the videos of Daniel Bombic, an extremist living in London who is the subject of three international arrest warrants, it was horrifying. But at least one could understand the cynical calculus of why the top leaders of Smer, and ultimately Danko, were trying to appeal to the most radical brown audience before the elections.

This is an outspoken anti-Semite who referred to the Ukrainian president shortly after the Russian aggression as "a rat installed by a hooked nose regime". Of doctor Vladimir Krčméry, he wrote after his death that "a collaborator in the covid genocide of the nation" had died and wished he'd "fry himself." Bombic also doxxed doctors, policemen and public servants by publishing their addresses and phone numbers and inciting his Telegram mob against them.

Together with the dissemination of extremist material, these are the reasons why a European arrest warrant has been issued for him. Bombic is refusing to appear in Slovakia, and the British courts are due to give their verdict on whether to extradite him to us at the end of March. They are therefore deciding just at the time when the Slovak Interior Minister Matúš Šutaj Eštok is appearing personally in Bombic's show.

Some may argue that Šutaj Eštok has not gone mad, he is just doing his party job. At Bombic, he is speaking just days before the first round of the presidential election because, as the general manager of Hlas, he is working so that in the second round, leader Pellegrini will get votes of even the brownest radicals.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So what way will Hungarians go, then?

[Estrella]

So what way will Hungarians go, then?

Good question. There are wildly diverging answers: I mentioned a poll that said they will vote 70-30 for Pelle, but others found that a majority of Alliance voters will vote for Korčok, another that a majority of all Hungarians support Korčok, and one says that they'll vote 30 Pelle, 30 Korčok and the rest stays home. Slovak polling is not very good at the best of times and it's even worse here: from a typical poll sample of 1000 or so, you'll get some 70 Hungarians and 30 Forró voters, which is almost useless.

For now, here's one newspaper's calculation of how Hungarian-majority municipalities voted in the first round. They didn't mention turnout, but I'd guess it was 35% or so.
Forró 40.9%
Pellegrini 25.2%
Korčok 22.4%
Harabin 6.6%
Matovič 3.1%
Others 1.8%

Looking at the 2019 maps, I'd guess back then they voted something like this, with a turnout of about 25% in the first round and 20% in the runoff.
Čaputová 40–45% > 80%
Bugár 25–30%
Šefčovič 5–10% > 20%
Harabin 5%
Others 10–15%

So there's obviously been a huge swing and a huge increase in turnout, but Hungarians haven't all unanimously switched from liberals to Pelle like some have predicted. I don't think anybody knows what will really happen in the second round.

[Estrella]

Štefan Harabin denied reports that he endorsed Pellegrini. He said the endorsement was an unauthorized action of his campaign manager Miroslav Jureňa (previously in HZDS and Minister of Agriculture in 2006–2007), whom he immediately fired.

I'm bringing this up because 1) unlike in 2019 and unlike Harabin now, many Harabin voters see Pelle as the lesser evil and it's interesting to see that even his inner circles disagrees with him on that, and 2) it gives me the opportunity to bring up my favourite press conference of all time.

...and that's why I *bang* decided *bang* here *bang* in this barn *bang* to tell *bang* the truth.

[Estrella]

Pellegrini and Korčok took part in a duel on public radio. In the previous debates they were both equally bland, boring and evasive, but this one was a real fight – and Korčok kicked Pelle where it hurt. He attacked him for everything from flying private planes, to his remarks about how he sees his role as protecting the cabinet or saying that he agrees with Harabin on many issues. He stumbled sometimes and once even told the presenter to shut up, but it was a pretty good performance. Pelle had some good moments, like when he reminded Korčok that he had no problem with being in the diplomatic service during the Mečiar regime, but he mostly came off as irritated, to the point he reacted to Korčok's criticisms with overwrought "oh my god" and "Jesus Christ". His own attacks on Korčok were centered about comparing him to Petr Pavel and Emmanuel Macron and calling him a warmonger.

[RGM2609]

Did Pellegrini discover that he shares common values with Putin or something? I thought being pro-West was one of the few discernable values of his joke of a party.

[Estrella]

Did Pellegrini discover that he shares common values with Putin or something? I thought being pro-West was one of the few discernable values of his joke of a party.

He discovered he needs Harabin's voters. It's actually a hilariously shameless turnaround – on the day of the first round he was saying that "the future of the country is not at stake in this election", which seems kinda insane to say as a politician, but at the time his strategy was to get the sort of moderates that ended up going to Korčok. It didn't work, so overnight he turned from a reassuring pro-Western moderate into a knight of justice protecting Slovaks from big bad Ukraine or something.

[RGM2609]

Did Pellegrini discover that he shares common values with Putin or something? I thought being pro-West was one of the few discernable values of his joke of a party.

He discovered he needs Harabin's voters. It's actually a hilariously shameless turnaround – on the day of the first round he was saying that "the future of the country is not at stake in this election", which seems kinda insane to say as a politician, but at the time his strategy was to get the sort of moderates that ended up going to Korčok. It didn't work, so overnight he turned from a reassuring pro-Western moderate into a knight of justice protecting Slovaks from big bad Ukraine or something.

Ok, that's it, after he loses I'll open one of my champagne bottles for special occasions )) Also would you bet for or against him eventually blabbering about "nazi Ukraine" before the election?

[Estrella]

Did Pellegrini discover that he shares common values with Putin or something? I thought being pro-West was one of the few discernable values of his joke of a party.

He discovered he needs Harabin's voters. It's actually a hilariously shameless turnaround – on the day of the first round he was saying that "the future of the country is not at stake in this election", which seems kinda insane to say as a politician, but at the time his strategy was to get the sort of moderates that ended up going to Korčok. It didn't work, so overnight he turned from a reassuring pro-Western moderate into a knight of justice protecting Slovaks from big bad Ukraine or something.

Ok, that's it, after he loses I'll open one of my champagne bottles for special occasions )) Also would you bet for or against him eventually blabbering about "nazi Ukraine" before the election?

Well, he already has huge billboards about how "Slovakia won't send a single soldier to Ukraine"



And Korčok keeps trolling him and saying that he surely knows that what Russia is doing is wrong and he wishes he could just be honest.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Really disappointing. I hate that in Slovakia you basically have to choose between pro-democracy neoliberals and Putin-friendly socdems, and I was really hoping Pellegrini would be the best of both worlds, but turns out he just won't stand for anything. I didn't want to support Korčok but I guess I have no choice.

[RGM2609]

Turns out when you're Fico's puppet for 2 decades, rotten enough for him to name you as a placeholder PM, then you break with him because the old man doesn't get out of the way for you and then promptly make up when you get a sniff of power...you might not be some great and honest savior.

[Estrella]

Fico's endorsement of Pellegrini: a four-minute video, three minutes of which are spent criticizing the 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia and talking about how "Mr. Dzurinda stands by Mr. Korčok and controls to what extent he is willing to serve foreign interests" and "they were willing to enter NATO even at the cost of burning down Slavic unity". The Pelle endorsement itself is phrased in a very strange way: most of the remaining time is spent attacking Korčok as a warmonger who will "support everything that the West orders him to do without hesitation", and Pellegrini is mentioned only as a moderate who "we should support whether we like him or not" because Smer doesn't have a presidential candidate of its own.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fico's endorsement of Pellegrini: a four-minute video, three minutes of which are spent criticizing the 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia and talking about how "Mr. Dzurinda stands by Mr. Korčok and controls to what extent he is willing to serve foreign interests" and "they were willing to enter NATO even at the cost of burning down Slavic unity". The Pelle endorsement itself is phrased in a very strange way: most of the remaining time is spent attacking Korčok as a warmonger who will "support everything that the West orders him to do without hesitation", and Pellegrini is mentioned only as a moderate who "we should support whether we like him or not" because Smer doesn't have a presidential candidate of its own.

Makes Chirac's "personal" endorsement of VGE in 1981 feel like the pinnacle of loyalty by comparison.

[Estrella]

The best word I can think of to describe Pellegrini's campaign is 'lazy'. He's a pretty good public speaker, but for some reason he has held only like three or four public rallies since he announced his candidacy back in January – Korčok sometimes holds that many in a single day. If he goes out at all, it's usually for closed door meetings with local notables, mayors or such. He's not even that active in the media and most attacks on Korčok are done via Hlas ministers. Korčok, on the other hand, managed to send out leaflets (or more like newspapers) to pretty much every household in the country. I got one too, and since I live in the southwest, it's in both Slovak and Hungarian.



The two versions strike a slightly different tone. The Slovak one is titled Don't let them take over the whole country!, the Hungarian one I'm supporting the development of southern regions. Inside, it's seven pages of the usual campaign stuff: an interview about his childhood, endorsements from artists, a list of places he's visited, endorsements from sportsmen, Ivan lights candles at a memorial to Ján Kuciak, endorsements from politicians, Ivan cares about disabled people, dire warnings about Pelle with exclamation marks in every sentence and so on. The Hungarian version focuses more on endorsements from Slovak Hungarian personalities, an interview with Korčok that's actually about policies and the same dire exclamation mark warnings about Pelle. As in every campaign that tries to appeal to Hungarians, there's the obligatory photo of the candidate eating halászlé.

Also, on the last page there's a crossword (I did say it's more of a newspaper). If you submit the solution, you have a chance to win a hoodie or a "Korčocolate" *groan*.

[UWS]

Pellegrini and Korčok took part in a duel on public radio. In the previous debates they were both equally bland, boring and evasive, but this one was a real fight – and Korčok kicked Pelle where it hurt. He attacked him for everything from flying private planes, to his remarks about how he sees his role as protecting the cabinet or saying that he agrees with Harabin on many issues. He stumbled sometimes and once even told the presenter to shut up, but it was a pretty good performance. Pelle had some good moments, like when he reminded Korčok that he had no problem with being in the diplomatic service during the Mečiar regime, but he mostly came off as irritated, to the point he reacted to Korčok's criticisms with overwrought "oh my god" and "Jesus Christ". His own attacks on Korčok were centered about comparing him to Petr Pavel and Emmanuel Macron and calling him a warmonger.

It reminds me Ronald Reagan saying that he paid for this microphone during a debate in the ‘80 Republican primaries

When it comes to Pelle’s criticism of Korcok, at least Korcok, unlike Pelle, he understands that it is smart to be as strong as the bear if there is a bear in tha woods while Pelle doesn’t see the bear at all and believes it is tame while we all understand that it is vicious and dangerous because for us the bear is easy to see

[Estrella]

I don't know why, but for some reason we didn't get any polls over the last week; I guess pollsters thought it'd be difficult to reach people over the holidays? The closest thing we have is a readers' poll from Pravda, a widely-read broadsheet and probably the most politically neutral newspaper in Slovakia (I'm really curious why Wiki calls them "liberal left-wing"). Before the first round 22,000 Pravda readers answered a poll on their website and the results (unadjusted btw) were surprisingly accurate:

First round
Pellegrini 42.1%
Korčok 40.6%
Harabin 8.6%
Kubiš 3.6%
Matovič 2.5%
Others 2.6%

Second round
Pellegrini 53.9%
Korčok 46.1%

They're doing the same thing now, and the numbers so far are Korčok 51.7%, Pellegrini 43.3%, won't vote 5.0%.

For some reason, before the first round one pollster decided to ask Slovaks how they'd vote in the US presidential election. The result was Biden 44% and Trump 34%, but because it was a part of their presidential poll, they also sorted the respondents by which candidate they'd vote for here and, well...