Rasmussen: Schwarzenegger Trails Two Democrats

[TheresNoMoney]

CA Governor Poll (500 Likely Voters)

Schwarzenegger  40%
Phil Angelides       44%

Schwarzenegger  39%
Steve Westley      46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/California%20Governor.htm

The Governator is in trouble.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

OMG FOUR POINTS DOWN, HE IS OVER!!!

[TheresNoMoney]

OMG FOUR POINTS DOWN, HE IS OVER!!!

Not over, but when you're already trailing two candidates who have a little more than half your name recognition you're in big trouble.

[nini2287]

OMG FOUR POINTS DOWN, HE IS OVER!!!

Not over, but when you're already trailing two candidates who have a little more than half your name recognition you're in big trouble.

Exactly and there's a big difference between "in trouble" and "over".

[Ben.]

OMG FOUR POINTS DOWN, HE IS OVER!!!

In the circumstances these are good numbers of Arnie.

I’ve been saying for a while that Schwarzenegger had a much better chance of re-election than people where giving him credit for, the sad part is having been elected to put California’s fiscal house in order the voters have effectively blocked all his reforms… nasty situation to be in, and its going to be a competitive race in November, but I still see him eking out a win, however I fear it will do little to forward the cause of his reforms.     

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These numbers are actually a fair bit closer than I would have guessed...

[Beet]

The way I see it is pretty simple. If Schwarzenegger doesn't think he can get anything done, he shouldn't run for governor. Or, if he thinks the only way he can get anything done is to have a GOP legislature, this should be part of his campaign. Otherwise, unless he thinks he can work with the legislature, or at least accomplish something significant without the legislature, he should just go back to Hollywood. That's not an anti-Schwarzenegger sentiment, I don't really oppose him, it's just a fact of life. I don't see why he would want to be governor if he can't accomplish anything.

Now on the other hand, if he is running for the office, that tells me that he believes he can get something accomplished. Why? Because he is asking the voters to put their trust in him... he is asking something from the voters. When the voters deliver that, and give him what he asks, presumably he has something he thinks he can deliver in return. Otherwise he wouldn't have asked. And up until this November, the voters have given him everything that he's asked for.

The only way I would oppose Schwarzenegger has nothign to do with his policies but rather the way government is run. If he wants to turn California into a direct democracy, rather than a state government on the republican model of representative democracy, this I would oppose, as I'm a supporter of the republican model, for the most part, on the state as well as national level. I believe states should have legislatures, and for the most part it should be legislatures and not the people who decide the bulk of policy. But other than this I'm not exactly a big anti-Schwarzenegger. There are worse Republicans around than him...

[Speed of Sound]

hahahahahahaahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha



screw you schwarzeneggar you murderer.


4 pts. isnt much, but at least it shows weakness.

[Yates]

These numbers are actually a fair bit closer than I would have guessed...

I agree.

Also, these numbers prove that Westly is a stronger candidate than Angelides.

[Q]

screw you schwarzeneggar you murderer.

Um, how so?

[© tweed]

screw you schwarzeneggar you murderer.

Um, how so?

Because he didn't grant clemency to Tookie.

Of course, Arnold is the murderer, not Tookie. 

[Alcon]

If Schwarzenegger is a murderer for rejecting clemency for someone on death row, then the vast majority of U.s. governors (Dems included) are.

I actually would have expected Schwarzenegger to be down by substantially more, which shows how poor and uninspiring candidates Angelides and Westley are.

Does anyone have name recognition numbers for the Democrats?

[© tweed]

Does anyone have name recognition numbers for the Democrats?

It sort of has them included in the Rasmussen poll:

Schwarzenegger is viewed favorably by 43% of California voters and unfavorably by 55%. For Angelides, the numbers are 37% favorable and 37% unfavorable. Thirty-eight percent (38%) have a favorable opinion of Westly while 32% take the opposite view.

So:

Schwarzenegger= 98% name recognition (43+55)
Angelides= 74% name recognition (37+37)
Westly= 70% name recognition (38+32)

[Alcon]

In that case, they're just horrible candidates.

That doesn't even include the undecideds who know of them.

[YRABNNRM]

screw you schwarzeneggar you murderer.

Are you an idiot or do you just play one on tv?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even if the challengers' numbers aren't the best, Arnold's are just miserable for an incumbent. Not to mention if I remember correctly his approval ratings are lower than every governor in the country except Frank Murkowski and a certain character from Ohio. That he is going down is something I have very little doubt of.

[Alcon]

Even if the challengers' numbers aren't the best, Arnold's are just miserable for an incumbent. Not to mention if I remember correctly his approval ratings are lower than every governor in the country except Frank Murkowski and a certain character from Ohio. That he is going down is something I have very little doubt of.

There is an old logic problem that goes something like this: you are a recruiter for a baseball team.  You have two players try out by running to first base.  One makes it there with perfect form; the other with an ugly, sloppy gait.  Which one do you choose?  The one with terrible form.  Teach him good form, and he'll be able to outrun the other.

Likewise, you choose the candidate that can be most improved, not the one that is currently doing best.  With a nearly 2-to-1 disapproval, an incumbent being down only four points or so is extraordinarily good.  Schwarzenegger can't really go anywhere but up at this point, so Angelides and Westley are clearly barely hanging on.

[Citizen James]

These numbers are actually a fair bit closer than I would have guessed...

I agree.

Also, these numbers prove that Westly is a stronger candidate than Angelides.

Though I am leaning in favor of Westly, I think their two numbers are probably within the MOE for each other.  (the article doesn't give a MOE, but I don't think I've ever seen one smaller than 2.5).

[WalterMitty]

arnold shouldnt even be in office.

the 'recall' amounted to the stealing of an election.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

arnold shouldnt even be in office.

the 'recall' amounted to the stealing of an election.

Change your avatar to Democrat immediately.

[WalterMitty]

arnold shouldnt even be in office.

the 'recall' amounted to the stealing of an election.

Change your avatar to Democrat immediately.

on what basis was gray davis 'recalled', because he was unpopular?

im sorry, but that is bs and a terrible precedent to set.

you will agree with me when one of your republicans is recalled.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ha, reminds me of when Phil whined about the Democrats in St. Paul trying to recall Randy Kelly arguing he had done nothing except endorse Bush. Same thing as Davis, he was unpopular, in this case for endorsing Bush. Yes, recalls don't exist for this reason, but most Republicans have quite a double standard here, except Walter, who is often a rare Republican voice of common sense.

[TheresNoMoney]

With a nearly 2-to-1 disapproval, an incumbent being down only four points or so is extraordinarily good.

Any incumbent polling at 39% or 40% is actually very bad. Also, this poll likely oversampled Republicans. I mean, do you really believe that Bush has a 41% approval rating in California? That's at least 5-8 points higher than all other California polls. And Schwarzenegger's supposed 43% approval is much higher than other recent polls as well.

Schwarzenegger can't really go anywhere but up at this point, so Angelides and Westley are clearly barely hanging on.

Hilarious spin.

Angelides and Westly are largely unknown entities who haven't even started campaigning yet. When you have unknown entities already leading a well-known incumbent, then that incumbent is in deep trouble.

[ATFFL]

Davis was recalled for ordering financial reports to be delayed in their release so that the state of the economy looked better than it was during his reelection campaign.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Davis was recalled for ordering financial reports to be delayed in their release so that the state of the economy looked better than it was during his reelection campaign.

Yes, that's exactly what the recall campaign ran on obviously, since this is the first time I have ever heard of this.