Nutter wins Bolivia Election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4539454.stm

Hmmm, a government of impoverished, uneducated, armed Leftist cokeheads.  Sounds like a grand idea.

There's going to be "trouble" methinks...

[Bono]

There goes the flat tax methinks.

[opebo]

Excellent!

By 'trouble' Al, do you mean a US backed fascist military coup like happened to Allende in Chile?

[WalterMitty]

this guy makes lula look like a swell guy!

[MissCatholic]

South Americas going to keep the neo cons busy until 2050.

[minionofmidas]

this guy makes lula look like a swell guy!

Lula is a swell guy.

[minionofmidas]

I wasn't even aware there were elections up ... why'd nobody tell me ?
Over 50%... wow. Last time he polled half that (granted that was a very divided election, with two major candidates per rough political camp.)

[WalterMitty]

this guy makes lula look like a swell guy!

Lula is a swell guy.

yes he is a harmless drunkard.

[minionofmidas]

this guy makes lula look like a swell guy!

Lula is a swell guy.

yes he is a harmless drunkard.

...in other words, a man much like you and me.

[WalterMitty]

good point, lewis.

[Jake]

By 'trouble' Al, do you mean a US backed fascist military coup like happened to Allende in Chile?

We can hope.

This cokehead represents the exact opposite of what this region needs.

[GOP = Terrorists]

We can hope.

Yay for democracy!  Errr...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I dislike his socialist protectionist tendencies.  However, I applaud his stance that Bolivia shouldn't be made to suffer or give up it traditional non-harmful cultural practices because of the idiotic war on drugs.

[GOP = Terrorists]

I dislike his socialist protectionist tendencies.  However, I applaud his stance that Bolivia shouldn't be made to suffer or give up it traditional non-harmful cultural practices because of the idiotic war on drugs.

You don't see protecting cultural practices as in itself a protectionist tendency?

Even in western to western culture.  Think Canada's media regulations.

[Jake]

We can hope.

Yay for democracy!  Errr...

Who can care about democracy when pyschopaths are elected into government.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I dislike his socialist protectionist tendencies.  However, I applaud his stance that Bolivia shouldn't be made to suffer or give up its traditional non-harmful cultural practices because of the idiotic war on drugs.

You don't see protecting cultural practices as in itself a protectionist tendency?

Only if they were to ban the import of coca leaves to chew on from lower cost growers in other countries.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Only if they were to ban the import of coca leaves to chew on from lower cost growers in other countries.

I think it has an economic trait as well.  Look at Canada's rules on media.  That a percentage of media has to originate in Canada as a means to preserve a Canadian identity while clearly also preserving jobs.

I think that the link comes from the fact that there is a natural correlation between protecting a culture and protecting the economic conditions that are part of it.  To think that you can radically change the economic conditions without altering the cultural conditions is faulty.

[WMS]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4539454.stm

Hmmm, a government of impoverished, uneducated, armed Leftist cokeheads.  Sounds like a grand idea.

There's going to be "trouble" methinks...

Oh, I can't wait to see how quickly things blow up here...

Didn't ag have something good on this over in the Chile thread?

[ag]

Who knows what will happen there. Dangerous radicals, mostly, tend to become somewhat responsible once in office (Chavez excepted). The problem is, Bolivia does not have much space to fall further: if he is not carefull, we'd have a nasty civil war shortly (and a likely secession of the wealthier East).

Still, I actually hesitate to blame Morales supporters: the guy might be dangerous, but he is a symptom, not the disease. I guess, if a feudal society persists into modern times, there aren't many routes left for a liberal reform (something the self-declared conservatives here should think about).

I'd give the guy his 100 days before jumping to conclusions, but it ain't look good.

[opebo]

We can hope.

Yay for democracy!  Errr...

Who can care about democracy when pyschopaths are elected into government.

Precisely what we Democrats have been saying for the last 5 years or so.

[minionofmidas]

Just thought I'd check regional polarization levels.

By the way, the Electoral Commission says 33.4% of precincts have reported and 29.5% of all eligible voters have voted in them - we're either looking at an extremely high turnout, or the city precincts are much larger and have been counted first.

Morales is at 48.3%, the Conservative guy at 34.7%.

Chuquisaqua (214K registered voters) 51.7% - 35.9% with 48.0% of precincts reporting
La Paz (1.18 mio) 66.1 - 19.1 with 31.0
Cochabamba (649K) 47.1 - 39.9 with 32.1
Oruro (194K) 55.1 - 32.2 with 33.0
Potosí (282K) 49.7 - 36.7 with 23.9
Tarija (178K) 28.9 - 49.3 with 65.6
Santa Cruz (811K) 28.9 - 46.3 with 33.5
Beni (135K) 13.1 (coming third) - 56.3 with just 6.8
Pando (26K) 25.1 - 45.6 with 54.1

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Unless Chuquisaqua  tilts towards the right as more votes come in, It looks like Morales would have to be very radical very quickly to trigger a civil war.  Hopefully, he'll end up being more like Lula and less like Hugo.

[ag]

Unless Chuquisaqua  tilts towards the right as more votes come in, It looks like Morales would have to be very radical very quickly to trigger a civil war.  Hopefully, he'll end up being more like Lula and less like Hugo.

Why would that matter? You mean territorial contiguity of the West? But provinces are not internaly homogenous, and the narrow tongue of Chuquisaqua would be naturally occupied by the westerners.

Anyway, of course this stands: Morales would have to be very radical very quickly to spark a civil war - this is always true.  The date to watch is sometime in June, I think - isn't it then that Santa Cruz is scheduled to have a vote on autonomy (I might be wrong here)? If he is not careful, it will become a vote on independence.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Unless Chuquisaqua  tilts towards the right as more votes come in, It looks like Morales would have to be very radical very quickly to trigger a civil war.  Hopefully, he'll end up being more like Lula and less like Hugo.

Why would that matter? You mean territorial contiguity of the West? But provinces are not internaly homogenous, and the narrow tongue of Chuquisaqua would be naturally occupied by the westerners.

Because I think that a cautious conservative revolt will require the rebels to be able to control Sucre, the constitutional capital of Bolivia, which is also the capital of Chuqisaqua.  That control would be easier to establish if they could point to a conservative preference in the department.

[Cubby]

I have known about him since 2002. Here is a Wiki article for those of you who don't know about him:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales

He is despised by the U.S. for opposing the Drug War.  A recent article (I can't remember if it was in the NY Times or online) said he is the frontrunner for the upcoming election, the third in 3 years I believe. In the 2002 one he came in second place.

Do you think he will be assassinated before the next Bolivian Election? Now that he has a chance at winning I am worried he will be because he has made public statements supporting nationalization of the oil and gas industries and he would be a leader somewhat in the mold of Hugo Chavez, but also like Nelson Mandela in that he'd be the first of Bolivia's oppressed natives to be President. He is seen as anti-American which historically is a dangerous position to take in South America.

As the post above shows, I've had a feeling for awhile that Evo might be seen as a serious threat by the Bush Administration. This would be due to his coca policies alone, if not that then any nationalization plans he might have.

Yay for Evo!!

Latin America's glorious left-wing trend continues! Hopefully Obrador extends it to Mexico next year.