Unless Chuquisaqua tilts towards the right as more votes come in, It looks like Morales would have to be very radical very quickly to trigger a civil war. Hopefully, he'll end up being more like Lula and less like Hugo.
Why would that matter? You mean territorial contiguity of the West? But provinces are not internaly homogenous, and the narrow tongue of Chuquisaqua would be naturally occupied by the westerners.
Because I think that a cautious conservative revolt will require the rebels to be able to control Sucre, the constitutional capital of Bolivia, which is also the capital of Chuqisaqua. That control would be easier to establish if they could point to a conservative preference in the department.