Iraqi election results

[Mr. Morden]

There are *no* other threads here about the Iraqi election?  Weird.  Anyway, obviously the official results won't be out for a while, but there are various rumors out there.  Iraqi blogger Omar of "Iraq the Model" commented on what he expects to see in the results:

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/2005/12/on-way-to-new-government.html

"However, partial results can still give an idea of how many seats each of the major lists is going to get and by combining the various estimates coming from different regions it looks like that the UIA is till going to be the biggest bloc in the parliament while the second largest bloc will most likely be the National Accord Front followed by the Kurds and Allawi’s block 3rd and 4th respectively with the difference between seat-totals for the latter three expected to be rather small.
However it’s possible that the latter three will swap places. Again with little differences."

I'd have to say that it does seem odd that the National Accord Front, a Sunni Arab party, might actually beat out the Kurds for second place.  It would suggest that the Sunni Arabs (who comprise about the same share of the total population as the Kurds) are just as united behind the National Accord Front as the Kurds are behind the Kurdistan Alliance.

[they don't love you like i love you]

So those pro-Iran fascist Shiite pieces of crap still hold power. Oh great. Time for the insurgents to fill Ayallotah Sistani with lots of lead.

[Mr. Morden]

Hmmm.....this doesn't seem to be getting all that much play in the American or international media, though this would seem to be a pretty big story:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4545148.stm

In short, there have been some preliminary numbers released by Iraq's electoral commission, and they indicate a very strong showing by the United Iraqi Alliance (the big Shiite religous group that holds most of the power in the current government).  In the January election, the UIA got ~50% of the vote nationwide, about twice as much as the next closest party.  Before this election, most people were expecting that they'd still end up as the largest group, but not by nearly as wide a margin, for a variety of reasons (very few Sunnis voted last time, so more Sunni votes this time would chip away at the UIA's share of the vote; also, Moqtada al Sadr joined up with the UIA, and several of the more moderate parts of the coalition broke away and joined up with Allawi's secular list or ran on their own, making the new UIA more extreme than the one that ran last January).

Anyway, it looks like the preliminary numbers suggest that the UIA's share of the vote has gone down very little from last January.  89% of the votes have been counted in Baghdad (the largest province), and the UIA has 58% of the votes there.  The Accord Front (largest Sunni party) is second with 19% and Allawi's party is third with 14%.  (Again, this is only Baghdad.)  In January, the results in Baghdad were UIA 61%, Allawi 25%, and the rest going to a smattering of smaller parties.  So really, not much of a dip for the UIA.

The Sunnis are now accusing the electoral commission of corruption--saying that the vote count has been rigged to benefit the UIA.  Pro-democracy/pro-secular Iraqi bloggers Iraq the Model and Iraqi Vote have more details and background here:

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/2005/12/whos-playing-with-fire.html

http://iraqivote.blogspot.com/

[socaldem]

Hmmm.....this doesn't seem to be getting all that much play in the American or international media, though this would seem to be a pretty big story:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4545148.stm

In short, there have been some preliminary numbers released by Iraq's electoral commission, and they indicate a very strong showing by the United Iraqi Alliance (the big Shiite religous group that holds most of the power in the current government).  In the January election, the UIA got ~50% of the vote nationwide, about twice as much as the next closest party.  Before this election, most people were expecting that they'd still end up as the largest group, but not by nearly as wide a margin, for a variety of reasons (very few Sunnis voted last time, so more Sunni votes this time would chip away at the UIA's share of the vote; also, Moqtada al Sadr joined up with the UIA, and several of the more moderate parts of the coalition broke away and joined up with Allawi's secular list or ran on their own, making the new UIA more extreme than the one that ran last January).

Anyway, it looks like the preliminary numbers suggest that the UIA's share of the vote has gone down very little from last January.  89% of the votes have been counted in Baghdad (the largest province), and the UIA has 58% of the votes there.  The Accord Front (largest Sunni party) is second with 19% and Allawi's party is third with 14%.  (Again, this is only Baghdad.)  In January, the results in Baghdad were UIA 61%, Allawi 25%, and the rest going to a smattering of smaller parties.  So really, not much of a dip for the UIA.

The Sunnis are now accusing the electoral commission of corruption--saying that the vote count has been rigged to benefit the UIA.  Pro-democracy/pro-secular Iraqi bloggers Iraq the Model and Iraqi Vote have more details and background here:

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/2005/12/whos-playing-with-fire.html

http://iraqivote.blogspot.com/

Well, I obviously have too much time on my hands...

Using the guidelines provided by the Iraq website, I crunched the numbers and came up with the following seat allocation (using the election data up now as if it were finalized)... in any case, this is probably a really good estimate of how the regional seats will be distributed....

Of 230 seats distributed among the provinces:

United Iraqi Coalition (religious shiite, Sistani, Sadr, Jafari et al): 109 seats

Iraq List (secular shiite, Allawi et al): 21

Kurds: 47
    Kurdish Gathering: 43
    Islamic Union of Kurdistan: 4

Sunnis: 44
Tawafoq Iraq Front (sunni): 35
Hewar Iraq Front (sunni): 9

Progressives:2
Peace and Reconciliation: 3
Others: 3

Since I didn't tally up the grand totals for each party nationwide and I don't quite know how the at-large seats are distributed, I didn't even try to calculate those.

Iraq has a very strange PR electoral system within each province.  Whereas in other countries where there are lots of third parties, the seats are distributed among the top vote getters by the percentage of the seated-party vote, in Iraq, the extra seats are distributed to parties with the "largest remainders," a procedure that allows small parties to have greater representation.

In any case, it looks like the religious shiite party will be just short of a majority based on the provincial tally.  Their success in the at-large vote may be greater, though, because of the better turn-out in shiite regions than in still tumultuous sunni areas... though, of course, sunni turn-out was much higher than last time.

I must say, though, that the Iraqi electoral system has been carefully designed to try to bring some ethnic balance to Iraq.  That appears to have happened... its just that the secular faction within shiite has proved weaker than expected.

[M]

Are there any Turkoman, Assyriana, or Armenians represented?

[socaldem]

Are there any Turkoman, Assyriana, or Armenians represented?

According to my calculations, there should be 1 turkomen and 1 assyrian party member representing the 230 regional seats.  Remember, though, that these ethnic minorities might pick up seats when the 40 national seats are distributed.

[minionofmidas]

 Some Iraq Sunnis, Shiites Threaten Boycott By PATRICK QUINN, Associated Press Writer

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Dozens of Sunni Arab and secular Shiite groups threatened to boycott     Iraq's new legislature Thursday if complaints about tainted voting are not reviewed by an international body.
 
A representative for former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi described the Dec. 15 vote as "fraudulent" and the elected lawmakers "illegitimate."

A joint statement issued by 35 political groups that competed in last week's elections said the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq, which oversaw the ballot, should be disbanded.

It also said the more than 1,250 complaints about fraud, ballot box stuffing and intimidation should be reviewed by international organizations such as the     United Nations, the     European Union, the Organization of the Islamic Conference or the Arab League.

There was no one available for comment at the U.N. office in Baghdad.

The electoral commission, or IECI, that monitored the elections reported receiving more than 1,500 complaints of violations — of which 25 were described as serious. However, it does not expect the complaints to change the overall result, to be announced in January.

The groups signing the joint statement included the main Sunni Arab coalition — Adnan al-Dulaimi's Iraqi Accordance Front — and a secular Shiite bloc headed by Allawi.

A senior member of the Shiite religious United Iraqi Alliance, the group that preliminary results show leading in the polls, said the protesters should accept the results.

"These statements will lead the country to new chaos," Ali al-Adib said. "Who can guarantee that when the elections are rerun they will not reject them again?"

Al-Adib, also a member of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, said the alliance now helping govern Iraq also had complaints.

"We also have complaints and we also have evidence, and we are waiting for the decision of the electoral commission," he said. "They have to accept the will of the Iraqi people, the will of the majority. The political process will continue even if they boycott it."

He said those groups rejecting the election results "are the same who called for the boycotting of the last elections and said 'no' to the constitution."

Sunni Arab groups had called on the minority to boycott the Jan. 30 elections and to reject the constitution approved in an Oct. 15 referendum. The Sunni-dominated insurgency had threatened to kill anyone participating in the Jan. 30 elections but pledged not to carry out any attacks last week.

Sunni Arabs fear being marginalized. Most estimates say they make up about 20 percent of the population, although many in the minority claim they comprise 40 percent of Iraq's estimated 27 million people. Shiites make up an estimated 60 percent of the population and Kurds 20 percent.

Allawi did not attend Thursday's meeting, held in his political headquarters in the heavily fortified Green Zone.

"We hold the IECI responsible for all the violations which took place during the elections and demand that it be dissolved and a suitable alternative to be found," said the statement read by Ali al-Timimi, the head of the Hilla al-Fayha List, a secular Shiite ticket Babil province south of the capital.

"If this is not achieved, then we will have no choice but to refuse the results and boycott the new parliament."

More than 100 politicians and representative of various groups participated in the meeting, held in a smoke-filled room.

Allawi representative Ibrahim al-Janabi took the accusations one step further and described last week's elections in all 18 provinces as "fraudulent."

"These elections are fraudulent, they are fraudulent, and the next parliament is illegitimate. We reject all this process," al-Janabi told a news conference.

Results released Tuesday showed the governing Shiite grouping, the United Iraqi Alliance, winning strong majorities not only in Baghdad but in the largely Shiite southern provinces. Sunni Arabs turned out in large numbers, unlike January's election.

The electoral commission put total turnout at nearly 70 percent of the country's 15.5 million voters. The Jan. 30 elections saw a turnout of 58 percent, while 63 percent participated in the October referendum.

Politicians say that based on preliminary results, the alliance seems on course to win between 120 and 130 seats — compared with 140 now.

Sunni Arabs may increase their seats from 17 to more than 40, while the Kurds are expected to hold between 40 and 50. Allawi, who controls 40 seats, is expected to drop to 20 seats or fewer.

Despite the lead, the Shiite religious bloc likely will fall short of the 184 seats necessary to choose a new president, the first step needed to form a government, and will have to find a coalition partner in the 275-member parliament.







Allawi joining forces with the Sunnis? Nice.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Translation: we got stuffed, so let's blame it on fraud...

And I'd be stunned if there was no fraud. From all sides.

[minionofmidas]

Translation: we got stuffed, so let's blame it on fraud...

And I'd be stunned if there was no fraud. From all sides.

Nah, only from those in a position of power at least locally. Okay, so that's nearly the same.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Translation: we got stuffed, so let's blame it on fraud...

And I'd be stunned if there was no fraud. From all sides.

Nah, only from those in a position of power at least locally. Okay, so that's nearly the same.

True. Nice Orwell quote, btw

[minionofmidas]

It's almost spot on 500 characters.