These polls are insane!

[© Tweed the Younger]

Let's face it, polls mean nothing until September/October.

Until after both of the conventions, they mean nothing.  Gore was trailing Bush by >10% in polls before the Democratic convention, which pushed him into a tie.

[agcatter]

I'm getting poll fatigue and it's only Feb.  This addiction to politics is taking its toll on me.  I need to check into a rehab clinic.  Someone help me!

[Gustaf]

I'm getting poll fatigue and it's only Feb.  This addiction to politics is taking its toll on me.  I need to check into a rehab clinic.  Someone help me!

Well, only the best of the best can handle the pressure...maybe you'll turn into John!

[Esteban Manuel]

There're 2 importants issues here (and i say couse i like polls itself):

1. California Dreamer is right: people are insane.
2. Polls are (usually) right, 'cause:

The size of the sample it's a important variable, but not the most. With a good sample of 500-600 cases u can do a really accute poll IF the dispertion of the vote isn't big (that's the case).

The problem is that is hard to get good samples in US cause there's too much variables to take into account and to much people to made it just random. So the solution is a semi-random poll and u have to pick a sample and that's the problem.

And the 2nd. and the biggest problem is that PEOPLE ARE INSANE. They don't vote for party or issue instead for person itself, they swear they know them, they preffer a "kind" instead a "smart" even when they can't know if he is really kind, they change their minds because a word said 20 years ago as a joke and they don't take into account the subtle about issues (the press also do that) or the reality itself (poor, grow or deficit rates).

And i repeat in my useless defense of polls that the 2nd factor is the most powerfull.