Polls

[classical liberal]

The polls page map doesn't line up with the most recent polls.  I assume that the map is supposed to reflect the latest results, however a 3% lead in MN is a lean but a 9% lead in MI is a tossup according to the map.  What's up with that?

[The Vorlon]

The polls page map doesn't line up with the most recent polls.  I assume that the map is supposed to reflect the latest results, however a 3% lead in MN is a lean but a 9% lead in MI is a tossup according to the map.  What's up with that?

I "think" dave has something in there that averages a number of polls - I do not know the fomula he is using.

Dave...?

[classical liberal]

Vorlon-

How do you rate Garin-Hart-Yang?

They have a new poll from 10 days ago showing Bush-Kerry 49-43.

http://www.drdan2004.com/site/DocServer/Poll_Memo_5.25.04.pdf?docID=221

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon-

How do you rate Garin-Hart-Yang?

They have a new poll from 10 days ago showing Bush-Kerry 49-43.

http://www.drdan2004.com/site/DocServer/Poll_Memo_5.25.04.pdf?docID=221

Peter Hart's firm A++

That said, the sample of 504 makes me think is was a "fundraising" poll versus an actual poll.

Often a poll (especially a small sample) will be done with, um,  favorable assumptions re turnout/etc to rally the troops, drive fundraising, etc.

This one was also done for Senate candidate.

If Peter actually wanted to do a state, I can guarantee you it would not be 504 sample size.

[agcatter]

Just a side note - Zogby's final poll in the SD congressional race had the Dem up 11 points.  Hmmm.

[The Vorlon]

Just a side note - Zogby's final poll in the SD congressional race had the Dem up 11 points.  Hmmm.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=4306&start=0

Side Note - Mason-Dixon Poll May 18th of "100% Certain" voters - Dems by 3 versus actual of 1.2%.

[MODU]

I have a new addicition.....

I LOVE POLLS!!!  Gimme more.  PLEASE!!!  I need them now!!!  hehehe

It's odd.  I find myself checking the composite map based off of current polls about once an hour these days, and we're still 5 months away from the election.  hahaha . . . man, I can't wait till this election is over.  I'll be able to get back to my normal web-browsing habbits then.  hahaha

Take care all, and keep up the poll research!  I need to keep feeding my addiction.  hahaha . . . especially you, Vorlon, my "poll pusher."  

[MODU]

Vorlon,

Found one for you which you may or may not want to rip apart:

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=8387

"49.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee, while 44.3 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush."

"Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 2.9 per cent of respondents. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 2."

Odd how just two weeks ago, the polls showed Bush ahead 44% to 39%.  Anyway, for your info.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon,

Found one for you which you may or may not want to rip apart:

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=8387

"49.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee, while 44.3 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush."

"Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 2.9 per cent of respondents. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 2."

Odd how just two weeks ago, the polls showed Bush ahead 44% to 39%.  Anyway, for your info.

It is an INTERNET poll.  Enough said

[WMS]

Oh wise Vorlon, I have a question for you:

Are there ever going to be more NM polls? I mean, the last one was an ARG(h) poll done over two months ago! And you gave ARG a B-, so that's not really Vorlon Approved, is it?

Just wondering where all the pollsters went...

[MODU]

WMS,

Maybe you can find something here:
- http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_2004
- http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/06/02/opinion/main620748.shtml
- http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=2876

Just a quick search online.  Didn't read them too carefully, but they seem to be current.

[WMS]

WMS,

Maybe you can find something here:
- http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_2004
- http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/06/02/opinion/main620748.shtml
- http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=2876

Just a quick search online.  Didn't read them too carefully, but they seem to be current.

Thank you very much! The first and fourth links are the best ones, and dealt with the one poll that's been done...

...unfortunately, it's a Zogby Internet Poll! Aaaaah! See below...

Polling Data

What candidate would you vote for in the 2004 U.S. presidential election?
John Kerry (D)
 48.4%
 
George W. Bush (R)
 43.3%
 
Ralph Nader (I)
 2.9%

Source: Zogby International / The Wall Street Journal
Methodology: Online interviews to 454 New Mexico voters, conducted from May 18 to May 23, 2004. Margin of error is 4.6 per cent.

[Reds4]

The latest zogby internet poll out earlier today has Bush up .4 over Kerry in New Mexico.

[Lunar]

Zogby internet polls are almost worth discussing, heh.

[WMS]

The latest zogby internet poll out earlier today has Bush up .4 over Kerry in New Mexico.

That's quite a dramatic swing...

[Lunar]

FOX poll out has a lot of interesting questions being asked:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

[khirkhib]

FOX poll out has a lot of interesting questions being asked:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

Wow.  Fox News has Kerry ahead +5 in battleground states the same week that the most popular republican president of the 20th century dies.  That is impressive.

Also check out http://www.newdem.org/newmajoritycoalition/ They have Kerry +8 points in battleground states.

[The Vorlon]

FOX poll out has a lot of interesting questions being asked:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

Wow.  Fox News has Kerry ahead +5 in battleground states the same week that the most popular republican president of the 20th century dies.  That is impressive.

Also check out http://www.newdem.org/newmajoritycoalition/ They have Kerry +8 points in battleground states.

Point 1:

Polls are bad for Bush right now.

Point 2:

Battleground sample size in Fox (and most other national polls) ranges from about 240 in Gallup, to about 360 in Fox.  So the margin of error for the quoted "lead" in these subsamples varies from 11% to 14%

Two weeks ago when Bush was up 4% in the Fox "Battleground" it was statistically meaningless, this week when Kerry is up 5% it's just as meaningless.

[ATFFL]

If nobody minds me going back to somethign eariler, a poll of 500k peopel would pass the law of diminishing returns on MoE, but would really boost the confidence level in the poll.  A problem would be that it would be very hard to do a sister poll or two  to confirm the confidence.  It would be much more cost effective to sponsor 3 polls of 10,000 or even 5,000 voters and get a similar MoE and have checks to confirm your confidence in the poll.

A lot of polsl you see released with 1200 respondents are 3 polls of 400 merged.  The the 400 polls are taken and if they are all in MoE to each other, they are released as one poll.  If 2 are similar and one not, you can eithe rget anothe rsample of 400 or release it as 800 and lower your MoE and confidence a bit.

[zorkpolitics]

Polling firms uses different standards (like the questionable Zogby internet polls or the current LA Times un-weighted poll), which makes it difficult to compare them or decide which will be most reflective of the voters opinions.
 I think the Rasmussen daily polls (really three day polls released each day) maybe one of the most useful.  Every day he uses the same methodology, polls the same number of voters, applies the same weighting.  Thus although his absolute numbers may or may not be correct, any real change in the voters preferences from Bush to Kerry or vice versa should be very reliably detected by him.
The amazing thing is that since early March, there has been no significant change, its been a statistical dead heat:  on any given day Bush and Kerry bounce around 44-47%.  There is no evidence that any of the advertising, campaigning, or Iraq events have substantially changed either candidate’s support.  For June Bush has been ahead on 4 days, Kerry on 3, and both tied on 5 days.
This poll is updated every day at noon:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[??????????]

Polling firms uses different standards (like the questionable Zogby internet polls or the current LA Times un-weighted poll), which makes it difficult to compare them or decide which will be most reflective of the voters opinions.
 I think the Rasmussen daily polls (really three day polls released each day) maybe one of the most useful.  Every day he uses the same methodology, polls the same number of voters, applies the same weighting.  Thus although his absolute numbers may or may not be correct, any real change in the voters preferences from Bush to Kerry or vice versa should be very reliably detected by him.
The amazing thing is that since early March, there has been no significant change, its been a statistical dead heat:  on any given day Bush and Kerry bounce around 44-47%.  There is no evidence that any of the advertising, campaigning, or Iraq events have substantially changed either candidate’s support.  For June Bush has been ahead on 4 days, Kerry on 3, and both tied on 5 days.
This poll is updated every day at noon:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

I watch it every day and it appears that the undecideds are becoming decided. This is the second day in a row its been Bush 47 Kerry 44. Bush is about to break out IMHO and take off with it. Barring another scandal.

[muon2]

Polling firms uses different standards (like the questionable Zogby internet polls or the current LA Times un-weighted poll), which makes it difficult to compare them or decide which will be most reflective of the voters opinions.
 I think the Rasmussen daily polls (really three day polls released each day) maybe one of the most useful.  Every day he uses the same methodology, polls the same number of voters, applies the same weighting.  Thus although his absolute numbers may or may not be correct, any real change in the voters preferences from Bush to Kerry or vice versa should be very reliably detected by him.
The amazing thing is that since early March, there has been no significant change, its been a statistical dead heat:  on any given day Bush and Kerry bounce around 44-47%.  There is no evidence that any of the advertising, campaigning, or Iraq events have substantially changed either candidate’s support.  For June Bush has been ahead on 4 days, Kerry on 3, and both tied on 5 days.
This poll is updated every day at noon:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

I watch it every day and it appears that the undecideds are becoming decided. This is the second day in a row its been Bush 47 Kerry 44. Bush is about to break out IMHO and take off with it. Barring another scandal.

The interesting feature is that the preference poll is also clearly lining up with improved polling for Bush on other masures - Job approval, foreign policy, and the economy. If all these hold for the rest of the month that would bode well for Bush.

[??????????]

Polling firms uses different standards (like the questionable Zogby internet polls or the current LA Times un-weighted poll), which makes it difficult to compare them or decide which will be most reflective of the voters opinions.
 I think the Rasmussen daily polls (really three day polls released each day) maybe one of the most useful.  Every day he uses the same methodology, polls the same number of voters, applies the same weighting.  Thus although his absolute numbers may or may not be correct, any real change in the voters preferences from Bush to Kerry or vice versa should be very reliably detected by him.
The amazing thing is that since early March, there has been no significant change, its been a statistical dead heat:  on any given day Bush and Kerry bounce around 44-47%.  There is no evidence that any of the advertising, campaigning, or Iraq events have substantially changed either candidate’s support.  For June Bush has been ahead on 4 days, Kerry on 3, and both tied on 5 days.
This poll is updated every day at noon:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

I watch it every day and it appears that the undecideds are becoming decided. This is the second day in a row its been Bush 47 Kerry 44. Bush is about to break out IMHO and take off with it. Barring another scandal.

The interesting feature is that the preference poll is also clearly lining up with improved polling for Bush on other masures - Job approval, foreign policy, and the economy. If all these hold for the rest of the month that would bode well for Bush.

I predict a Bush runaway after the Democrat conventions. My below map will probably show more red on it then I have now. A landslide is still possible.

[CARLHAYDEN]

FOX poll out has a lot of interesting questions being asked:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

Wow.  Fox News has Kerry ahead +5 in battleground states the same week that the most popular republican president of the 20th century dies.  That is impressive.

Also check out http://www.newdem.org/newmajoritycoalition/ They have Kerry +8 points in battleground states.

Point 1:

Polls are bad for Bush right now.

Point 2:

Battleground sample size in Fox (and most other national polls) ranges from about 240 in Gallup, to about 360 in Fox.  So the margin of error for the quoted "lead" in these subsamples varies from 11% to 14%

Two weeks ago when Bush was up 4% in the Fox "Battleground" it was statistically meaningless, this week when Kerry is up 5% it's just as meaningless.

As I noted some time ago, private surveys which I am prohibted by confidentiality from citing indicate that the Kerry supporters are broken into two approximately evenly divided groups, one of which I call the Deaniacs and the other the traditional Democrats.  

While Bush supporters overwhelmingly agree with him on just about every issue (his support for immigration reform being a notable exception), the traditional Democrats are largely ignorant of and in disagreement with many of Kerry's historical positions (I say this because he appears to being trying to change his positions now).

I am a little surprised that none of the public polls I have seen to date have really probed this matter.

Are you familiar with any which you can cite?

[Fritz]

I watch it every day and it appears that the undecideds are becoming decided. This is the second day in a row its been Bush 47 Kerry 44. Bush is about to break out IMHO and take off with it. Barring another scandal.

StatesRights, I'm sure you already noticed this, but today Kerry pulled back into the lead on Rasmussen.  So much for your theory.