Polls

[agcatter]

Just saw a Mason - Dixon Poll taken May 20 - 25 which shows Bush up 47 - 41 in Ohio (registered voters).  I'm really confused now.  I look at the national polls and see Bush running slightly behind in some polls and wonder how this can be.  I guess I'm looking for these state polls to be totally reflective of the national data.  I guess it just doesn't work that way always.

[agcatter]

http:www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1144542/posts

[agcatter]

Excellent points.  Your last point is particularly relevant.  What small variance that can be seen in the Rasmussen tracking poll seems to be a product of the news - the prison scandal is a prime example.

[agcatter]

So does this particular Ohio poll seem to have any validity to you given the fact that it doesn't seem in sync with other Ohio polling?  Also given the fact that it seems to come at a time when Bush has hit bottom in job approval and given all the $$ Kerry has spent over the last 3 wks in television ads?

[agcatter]

Seems that Mason Dixon went all out on this poll given the size of this sample.  Isn't it bigger than the usual Mason - Dixon sample size?  Some of their Southern state senate race samples in 2002 were a little more than half that size if I remember correctly.

[agcatter]

Ok, one more question if you don't mind and I'm really curious about this.  How much would a polling firm charge a client such as a newspaper?  I gather from your comments above that it depends on how much polling (size of sample of course).  Are we talking 5 figures here?  Now about a national poll such as Gallop CNN or any national poll commisioned by CBS or one of the news magazines?  Thanks.

[agcatter]

Just a side note - Zogby's final poll in the SD congressional race had the Dem up 11 points.  Hmmm.