Just saw a Mason - Dixon Poll taken May 20 - 25 which shows Bush up 47 - 41 in Ohio (registered voters). I'm really confused now. I look at the national polls and see Bush running slightly behind in some polls and wonder how this can be. I guess I'm looking for these state polls to be totally reflective of the national data. I guess it just doesn't work that way always.
A poll with a poorly sorted out screen for likely voters will show big, and not real, shifts in public opinion in reaction to events like the prison thing.
Remember that in a lot of these registered voter polls, about 1/3rd of the people included will not be actual voters, and many of them when the "leaners" are pushed will just sway in the wind with the last news story they heard on the nightly news...
The typical "bounce" from the conventions is "about" 10% - after the first convention candidate X goes up 10%, then after the other convention candidate Y goes up 10%.
Is this swing of 10% "real"...? of course not...
A bunch of folks who are not voting anyway are just swaying in the wind.
But he says its a Mason-Dixon poll. You have a very high opinion of Mason-Dixon, I thought.
