Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps

[So the Heroes Fall]

Why are you predicting Maryland to switch in a very good Dem year?

[True Federalist]

The GOP has consolidated around a single candidate who can afford to wait to spend his money and his political capital until after the primary, so I think the bickering between all the Dems for the open seat will give the GOP the edge, especially if Mfume can make it into a primary runoff.  If Sarbanes weren't retiring it would be a certain Dem hold, but that isn't the case.

[Ben.]

Senate Break Down

Republicans: 53 (-2)
Democrats: 46 (+2)
Independents: 1

As I’ve always said I think Santorum will close strong in the PA senate race but it just won’t be enough and baring a major failure on the part of the Democrats Bob Casey will be PA’s next junior Senator.

I think that after Pennsylvania there are a string of contests which will be very close even with political trends going in the Democrat’s favour next fall, open races in MD and MN while close will probably see Democrats retain those seats.

GOP incumbents in OH, MT and MO will be under huge pressure from strong Democratic challenges but the power of incumbency still counts for something and all three represent states which Bush won in 2004 and can boast strong political machines of their own. But in the end I think that one of the three might very well produce a Democratic pick-up…

In Ohio it’ll be close but I think DeWine should eek out a win over Hackett and will probably beat Brown soundly should he be the Dem candidate.

In Missouri Talent has a strong challenge to contend with but has cash and connections and is not desperately unpopular and while the national trend might see him ousted despite his best efforts I think he’ll hang on.

Montana has all the ingredients for a classic upset, scandal plagued and uninspiring incumbent a popular and energetic state Democratic Party with two credible candidates, if any of these three Republican held seats flip I think it might very well be Montana.

Another open race in Tennessee will be hotly contested and while Harold Ford would be likely to run very strongly (he’ll break 45% IMO) as things stand he is most likely to lose to who ever the GOP candidate is next fall.

Long shot races for the Dems in Nevada and Arizona will come to nothing, though I’d expect both Pederson and Carter to do ok.

A major upset might be in Mississippi where if Lott decides to step down I would expect former AG Mike Moore to win an open contest even against well connected GOP congressman Chip Pickering.                                           

[nini2287]

>30% Tossup
>60% Lean
>90% Solid

Only switches are NJ and PA.  The closest races that won't switch will be MN, MO, OH, MD and TN.  I was also very tempted to list NE as a tossup since I think that will be closer than people think.  Burns will win by at least 8-10 points in MT.

[ian]

I'm pretty sure I saw this thread earlier, but I couldn't find it.  I realize that it's early, but here's my prediction:

Dems take MO and PA.  Repubs take MN.  That's it.
OH will be close, but I think for right now, I'll give it to DeWine.
Any other predictions?  Even if they are early?  They ARE subject to change, you know.

I'll edit and say that Klobuchar could make it quite close in MN.  Tossup as of right now.  And NJ is also a tossup.

EDIT 2 - 12/29: I also would like to point out that with more name recognition, my boy Tester COULD end up defeating Burns; I figure he will at one point or another be ahead in the polls.  Right now, it's another tossup.

[tarheel-leftist85]

[Harry]

Dems pick up 7 seats and retake the Senate.  You heard it here first.
Vermont is Sanders.

[Ben.]

Dems pick up 7 seats and retake the Senate.  You heard it here first.
Vermont is Sanders.

Hmmm… Senators Hackett, Morrison, McCaskill, Ford, Moore and Casey.

Now that would be a mighty fine intake

Though I should say that both Nevada and Maine are GOP held and are, baring a disaster, going to remain so… much as I wouldn’t mind a Senator Carter to add to the above intake      

Your map does suggest that 2006 is getting increasingly competive for the Dems, especially where Lott to retire and Moore to run… it all depends on getting the right candidates especially in states like Ohio and Montana, both Missouri and Pennsylvania seem to have good solid Dem challengers, the party’s position in potentially troublesome states like Florida, Minnesota and Maryland has stabilised a great deal and we now look to be favoured in all three.       


And if the stars align just right next fall, maybe… just maybe I could wake up to…





It might take a huge amount of good fortune for the Dems and a lot of bad luck for the GOP, it just within the bounds of possibility, in all likelihood it won’t happen… but let me dream!         

[Harry]

Dems pick up 7 seats and retake the Senate.  You heard it here first.
Vermont is Sanders.

Hmmm… Senators Hackett, Morrison, McCaskill, Ford, Moore and Casey.

Now that would be a mighty fine intake

Though I should say that both Nevada and Maine are GOP held and are, baring a disaster, going to remain so… much as I wouldn’t mind a Senator Carter to add to the above intake      

Your map does suggest that 2006 is getting increasingly competive for the Dems, especially where Lott to retire and Moore to run… it all depends on getting the right candidates especially in states like Ohio and Montana, both Missouri and Pennsylvania seem to have good solid Dem challengers, the party’s position in potentially troublesome states like Florida, Minnesota and Maryland has stabilised a great deal and we now look to be favoured in all three.       

yeah, I figured I'd probably screwed up some of the colors that's why I marked the pickups.

[opebo]

Beautiful, optimistic map, Harry.  Thanks.  I particularly enjoyed the little yellow dots where we pick up.  Of course I'm much more pessimistic than you. 

Ben, doesn't your map two posts above just show 6 pickups?

[Harry]

Is Harris is the R nominee in Florida, no way we lose it.  If it's someone else, I still wouldn't bet on it, but it'd be possible.

[Ben.]

Ben, doesn't your map two posts above just show 6 pickups?

Yep...

[Gustaf]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups. In fact, winnign back the senate ever looks kind of bleak, really...

[Frodo]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups.

If you are referring to net gains in the Senate, even that is a bit optimistic.

In fact, winnign back the senate ever looks kind of bleak, really...

My opinion exactly.  Neither Democrats nor Republicans are going to make headway next year -and for that, in light of all their troubles this year, Republicans should feel grateful that they do not fare any worse. 

[Ben.]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups. In fact, winnign back the senate ever looks kind of bleak, really...

Realistically I agree I think that the Dems will probably win PA (though not by the huge margins the polls currently suggest), beyond that there are a few races with plenty of potential in the end I think the Democrats stand to pick up one of Montana, Ohio, Missouri or Tennessee but while I think Montana is well positioned for a surprise Dem win – Tennessee, Missouri and Ohio will be very tough for Dems and Ohio can be written off if Brown is the nominee.

On the brightside should Lott step down I think that Moore probably beats Pickering or who ever the GOP puts up for the seat, though it’ll be a highly competive race and a Moore win will owe far more to Moore’s own appeal and popularity than the campaigning ability or appeal of the Democratic Party.

Also on the plus side for the Dems polls suggest that both New Jersey and Minnesota will be held, while both Maryland and Florida look secure so it’s possible that the Republicans wont make any gains next fall and combined with two Democratic gains out of the contests in MT, OH, PA, TN and MO along with a possible third gain should Lott step down in MS means that net gains of somewhere in the region of 2-3 seats in the senate for Dems.               

[Adlai Stevenson]

Dems pick up 7 seats and retake the Senate.  You heard it here first.
Vermont is Sanders.

[DanielX]

My 'conventional'/ maximum incumbency map would have Dem +1 or +2 (Pennsylvania and maybe Rhode Island).

A "Maximum Republican" would be Rep +4 (Republicans gaining New Jersey, Maryland, West Virginia, and Minnesota while holding all incumbent seats).

A "Maximum Democrat" would be Dem +7 (Democrats gaining Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Mississippi, Missouri, and Montana while holding all incumbent seats).

My "Random Gut Instinct" map would have no change - Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island going Democrat, Minnesota, Maryland, and New Jersey going Republican.

[Ben.]

My 'conventional'/ maximum incumbency map would have Dem +1 or +2 (Pennsylvania and maybe Rhode Island).

I just don't see RI flipping if Chafee is the GOP candidate no matter how tough the primary... if Lott steps down and Moore runs then the Dems have as good a shot in MS as anywhere, and certainly a better chance than in RI, beyond that I would have thought that the Dems can cobble together a win in one of TN, MO, OH or MT my bet being on MT with Morrison.

Beyond that I don’t see how the GOP wins either MN or MD both are seeing the Dems polling strongly and the trend that year would seem to be likely to favour the Dems over the GOP so I think the GOP’s best hope must be NJ and even there Martinez is polling ahead (!) 

Assuming Lott runs in MS, then I think PA is the only state which is likely (though not certain) to flip, Dems have an even chance of picking up one of MT, TN, MO or OH and if Lott does indeed retire and strong candidate such as Moore run I think that race would be wide open potentially even favouring Moore… I think that RI is probably on a par with AZ in terms of being competitive.     

[Gustaf]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups.

If you are referring to net gains in the Senate, even that is a bit optimistic.

In fact, winnign back the senate ever looks kind of bleak, really...

My opinion exactly.  Neither Democrats nor Republicans are going to make headway next year -and for that, in light of all their troubles this year, Republicans should feel grateful that they do not fare any worse. 

Heh, you're being really pessimistic. Not getting at least one seat would be a really poor showing considering the situation. I do think Dems will get PA and I expect perhaps 2 more seats to change hands (unforeseen ones, that is). I think it will net out at 1 seat gain for the Dems, or thereabout.

[Frodo]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups.

If you are referring to net gains in the Senate, even that is a bit optimistic.

In fact, winnign back the senate ever looks kind of bleak, really...

My opinion exactly.  Neither Democrats nor Republicans are going to make headway next year -and for that, in light of all their troubles this year, Republicans should feel grateful that they do not fare any worse. 

Heh, you're being really pessimistic. Not getting at least one seat would be a really poor showing considering the situation. I do think Dems will get PA and I expect perhaps 2 more seats to change hands (unforeseen ones, that is). I think it will net out at 1 seat gain for the Dems, or thereabout.

I meant in terms of the partisan make-up in the Senate, which I predict will remain static -I am sure Democrats can definitely gain Pennsylvania and (less likely) Rhode Island, but Republicans will likely pick up Minnesota and (less likely) New Jersey, therefore cancelling each other's gains out.   

[Ben.]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups.

If you are referring to net gains in the Senate, even that is a bit optimistic.

In fact, winnign back the senate ever looks kind of bleak, really...

My opinion exactly.  Neither Democrats nor Republicans are going to make headway next year -and for that, in light of all their troubles this year, Republicans should feel grateful that they do not fare any worse. 

Heh, you're being really pessimistic. Not getting at least one seat would be a really poor showing considering the situation. I do think Dems will get PA and I expect perhaps 2 more seats to change hands (unforeseen ones, that is). I think it will net out at 1 seat gain for the Dems, or thereabout.

I meant in terms of the partisan make-up in the Senate, which I predict will remain static -I am sure Democrats can definitely gain Pennsylvania and (less likely) Rhode Island, but Republicans will likely pick up Minnesota and (less likely) New Jersey, therefore cancelling each other's gains out.   

The likley Dem candidate leads Kennedy by 7-8 pionts in MN - if anything the contest leans towards the Dems, NJ is more worrying IMHO. 

[TheresNoMoney]

New Jersey is the Republicans' best chance for a pickup, and even that doesn't look very likely. Minnesota is swinging back to the Democrats, and they already have one Bushbot Republican in Norm Coleman. I highly doubt they'll elect another.

My over/under for Democratic pickups is +3. Anything less than 3 net pickups would be a disappointment in my eyes.

[Ben.]

My over/under for Democratic pickups is +3. Anything less than 3 net pickups would be a disappointment in my eyes.

Agreed I think its more likely to be 2 but maybe 3.

I think PA will turn into a tough fight but Casey should probably be able to win

At least one of OH (so long as the Dems in the state don’t nominate Brown), MO, MT or TN should flip and my money is probably on MT, Burns as a discredited incumbent, the advances of the local Dems in the state and both Morrison and perhaps Tester as capable challengers suggests it’s a contest with all the ingredients for a classic upset over an incumbent Senator.

If Lott steps down and the year is a on balance a good one for the Democrats then Mississippi should and will be a top priority with Moore probably running and offering the party its best shot for a pickup after Casey in PA.

On top of all this, time is getting might short for the GOP in FL, Harris will probably be the candidate and has surprisingly little cash with which to run her campaign and will probably go down to a fairly hefty defeat next fall [evil grin], Minnesota as you say is swing back to the Democrats with Amy Klobuchar emerging as a powerful candidate who is now racking up consistently clear leads (bigger than Cardin in MD) in a race that pundits still seem to think leans towards the GOP – on top of which Kennedy appears to not be the hugely powerful candidate we where lead to believe he would be. New Jersey and Maryland remain competive, as does MN for that matter, but as in MN the Dems have the edge and there is little evidence to suggest that they will lose it between now and next fall – not to tempt fate

So as I say I think as things stand the Dems should make a net gain of 2 seats but should Lott stand down there is an excellent chance that Moore will pick up a third in Mississippi – what’s more Hackett, McCaskill and Ford will all be competive in their own states though I think they’ll all face an uphill struggle to win.       

[Galactic Overlord]

I've had Rhode Island and Pennsylvania pegged as Republican losses for a few months now.  In the past year, I've pretty much written off Nebraska, North Dakota, West Virginia, and (nominally) Florida. 

I think Burns, Talent, and DeWine will retain their seats, but none will break 55%.  I think Tennessee will also stay in the Republican column.  I've thought Minnesota would be a strong possiblity to flip to the Republicans, but now I'm not so sure.  However, despite Klobuchar's seven point lead, I still wonder if she's the kind of candidate Minnesota will ultimately go for.  They've voted for moderate Republicans (Durenburger, Boschwitz) conservative Republicans (Pawlenty, Coleman) and down home populists, namely the late Senator Wellstone.  But a female county attorney from Minneapolis?  Would she necessarily generate enthusasiam in the counties in and around Minnesota's Iron Range and Arrowhead regions? 

It's the beginning of the year, and anything could happen.  But for the moment, I think Democrats are well positioned to pick up two seats.

[AuH2O]

New Jersey is the Republicans' best chance for a pickup, and even that doesn't look very likely. Minnesota is swinging back to the Democrats, and they already have one Bushbot Republican in Norm Coleman. I highly doubt they'll elect another.

My over/under for Democratic pickups is +3. Anything less than 3 net pickups would be a disappointment in my eyes.

Wow. You are NOT going to be happy Election Night 2006, that's pretty much for sure.

Actually, I think you make a good point here-- by all historical precedent, Democrats should gain a few seats or so. Problem: it's not going to happen. Generic party polls are swinging back to even, with Dems holding an insignificant edge mostly because they aren't in power.

A lot of Democrats are acting like they still have the Big Mo, which they don't. There's a lot of time, of course, but at this point there is no way to project the situation as of November 2006.

My personal guess right now is that the GOP will take 2 Dem seats (probably NJ and MN) while Democrats knock off 2 Republicans. There could be less turnover than that... we'll see.