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Author Topic: Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps  (Read 77214 times)
Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #50 on: January 01, 2006, 03:55:18 am »
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That's rather generous to the GOP.  Why Florida?
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« Reply #51 on: January 01, 2006, 05:09:01 am »
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That's rather generous to the GOP.  Why Florida?


lol! Harris beating Nelson! she doesn't even have the money to run campaign ads right now!

As for MN, i think its becoming clearer and clearer that Kennedy is not as strong a candidate as we where lead to believe and that Amy Klobuchar at the same time is proving an unexpectedly strong candidate.

And then thereís New Jersey, which I think is probably the one best hope for a GOP pick up, but even in New Jersey national factors and the stateís strong Democratic tilt are producing polls which show Bob Menendez (on paper a very weak candidate) leading Tom Kean (in contrast a much stronger candidate on paper). So even here in what is the GOP best shot (IMHO) their chances canít really be considered much better than evens.

Added to which there is the potential for an exceedingly competitive race in MS should Lott retire in which Mike Moore would probably enjoy a slight edge and added to which the Democrats would have credible chances in MT, OH (assuming Brown isnít nominated), TN and MO though Iíll concede that in all these states the GOP starts out as the favourite.

So in short +3 gains for the GOP in the Senate is bordering on wishful thinking.           
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« Reply #52 on: January 03, 2006, 03:21:37 pm »
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Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups.

If you are referring to net gains in the Senate, even that is a bit optimistic.

Quote
In fact, winnign back the senate ever looks kind of bleak, really...

My opinion exactly.† Neither Democrats nor Republicans are going to make headway next year -and for that, in light of all their troubles this year, Republicans should feel grateful that they do not fare any worse.†

Heh, you're being really pessimistic. Not getting at least one seat would be a really poor showing considering the situation. I do think Dems will get PA and I expect perhaps 2 more seats to change hands (unforeseen ones, that is). I think it will net out at 1 seat gain for the Dems, or thereabout.

I meant in terms of the partisan make-up in the Senate, which I predict will remain static -I am sure Democrats can definitely gain Pennsylvania and (less likely) Rhode Island, but Republicans will likely pick up Minnesota and (less likely) New Jersey, therefore cancelling each other's gains out.† †

I should make myself clear...I do think a net gain of at least one seat i likely, because I think Dems will take PA and beyond that we should AT LEAST be able to cancel out any GOP gains. I think it's fairly likely to stop at one seat gain, could be two with a little luck though. But not more than that. As I've stated before, it doesn't really matter since it's not gonna be enough to take back the senate anyway.
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« Reply #53 on: January 03, 2006, 05:55:37 pm »
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I was feeling optimistic. Tongue† It's just a feeling I have...that will most likely be wrong. (Hopefully in PA Grin)


Fair enoughÖ I must confess that for a long time Iíve been urging Dems to be cautious about Florida, while unlike many other southern states you need to do more than get the Republican vote out in order to win state-wide getting that vote out, as Harris probably will, still nets you a healthy share of the vote Ė but with her fundraising compared to Nelsonís and the current polls I think that what glimmer of a chance remained for a republican pickup in the sunshine state is fading fast.

Minnesota and New Jersey seem to be favouring the Dems right now but Iíd agree that both will be very close in the endÖ PA Iíd expect to go Dem but I donít think itíll be by a wide margin.   
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« Reply #54 on: January 03, 2006, 05:59:40 pm »

Updated:




Light blue/red: Very close election
Plain blue/red: Reasonably close
Dark blue/red: Wide margin of victory

My current prediction for the partisan breakdown of the 110th Senate: Dems +1

Republicans - 54
Democrats - 45
Independent - 1
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Real Americans (and Big Sky Bob) demand to know.


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today, but we'll see.
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« Reply #55 on: January 04, 2006, 11:55:51 am »
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4 incumbents are defeated, and no open seats change hands.
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« Reply #56 on: January 08, 2006, 11:20:20 pm »
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Light means gain
Dark means hold

Bernie Sanders is Red, because... well, he is one.

Anyway, looks like the forces of idiocy have prevailed and we are going to weaken Chaffee in RI, which will give the Dems a way in.† Reps pick up Minn.† Santorum holds in PA.† Walter is right, Casey Junior is a piss-poor campaigner.

New Jersey is up in the air, but I have a hard time believing that Jesus could run as a Republican and get elected there.† If he did, the Democrats would just find a way to cheat us out of it at the polls, anyway.

« Last Edit: January 08, 2006, 11:28:36 pm by Supersoulty »Logged

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« Reply #57 on: January 11, 2006, 10:18:04 am »
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Current list of likely to change hands:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Missouri
3. Montana
4. Minnesota
5. Ohio
6. New Jersey
7. Rhode Island

Or at least, that's my take right now. Might change though.
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« Reply #58 on: January 22, 2006, 05:11:50 pm »
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Dark color = safe election
Light color = close election

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« Reply #59 on: January 22, 2006, 11:17:55 pm »
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Dems pick up 11 seats in the Senate and about 60 in the House.
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« Reply #60 on: January 22, 2006, 11:26:05 pm »
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Nevada?  Aren't we feeling generous?
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« Reply #61 on: January 22, 2006, 11:51:43 pm »
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Nevada?  Aren't we feeling generous?

I'm more looking at Texas, where the Democratic challenger is polling at around 25%.
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« Reply #62 on: January 23, 2006, 11:15:17 am »
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Most vulnerable:

10. Nebraska
Not actually likely to switch, but considering it's Nebraska I still put it up there.

9. Tennessee
Also not very likely, but Ford seems like a fairly good candidate. Still,considering how badly Dems have been doing in Tennessee lately I'm not expecting much.

8. Ohio
I used to have high hopes on this one but I'm losing faith. Now that DeWine is moving ahead and Hackett is looking weaker, well...defeating a fairly moderate incumbent in a somewhat Republican state was always going to be hard. The chance is still there, but it's slipping away.

7. Maryland
This is here simply because of that poll and the fact that Steele is looking so strong. The Dems really SHOULD win a race in Maryland.

6. Montana
Dems have been doing well lately in Montana, and Burns has the whole Abramoff thing around his neck. Still, this is a state that Bush won by over 20 points, so it definitely won't be easy. I'm still giving the incumbent the edge here, I'm thinking it might play out similar to Bunnings in 2004.

5. Minnesota
This looks good for the GOP on paper, but polls have been unfavourable and Minnesota's strong Kerry vote is an indication that it might be swinging back. Sort of wait-and-see on this one.

4. Missouri
Should be a tough one, but once again, polls have been looking good for Democrats. Considering how close Missouri still is in most races Democrats ought to win a race by now. This is a tossup, IMO.

3. New Jersey
I find it hard to believe that New Jersey will elect a Republican senator for the first time in 30 years after the big Corzine win, but on the other hand Kean looks good and Menendez doesn't, candidate-wise. And this is sort of the reverse of Missouri. They ought to win, just once.

2. Rhode Island
I'm still sceptical of Democrats picking up this seat, but I guess it could happen, especially if Laffey wins the nomination. If he doesn't though, I still give Chafee the edge.

1. Pennsylvania
What is there to say? I don't want the PAers over me, suffice it to say that this is the only race I consider really likely to switch, what with the large Casey lead and all.

So, my prediction of 1+ for Democrats remain.
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« Reply #63 on: January 23, 2006, 11:29:53 am »
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Dems pick up 11 seats in the Senate and about 60 in the House.

If that map happens, I will send Harry $100.
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« Reply #64 on: January 23, 2006, 11:37:32 am »
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>30% Tossup
>50% Slight
>70% Lean
>90% Solid

My prediction among non-solid races:
AZ:  Kyl +16
CT:  Lieberman +22 (if Weicker runs)
FL:  Nelson +11
MD:  Cardin +4
MI:  Stabenow +20
MN:  Klobuchar +3
MO:  Talent +1
MT:  Burns +8
NE:  Nelson +13
NV:  Ensign +24
NJ:  Menendez +3
OH:  DeWine +2 (Hackett); DeWine +5 (Brown)
PA:  Casey +6
RI:  Chafee +7
TN:  GOP +2
WA:  Cantwell +11
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« Reply #65 on: January 23, 2006, 10:18:22 pm »
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Vermont is red because I do not know how to color it green for Bernie Sanders.
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« Reply #66 on: January 23, 2006, 10:40:00 pm »
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Dems pick up 11 seats in the Senate and about 60 in the House.

Harry... give me the drugs.
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« Reply #67 on: January 24, 2006, 12:02:51 am »
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Dems pick up 11 seats in the Senate and about 60 in the House.

If that map happens, I will send Harry $100.
get the check ready...
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« Reply #68 on: January 24, 2006, 12:03:46 am »
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Dems pick up 11 seats in the Senate and about 60 in the House.

If that map happens, I will send Harry $100.
get the check ready...

I will be more than happy to if that happens
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« Reply #69 on: January 30, 2006, 10:14:24 am »
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As long as Burns and Santorum get the beating they deserve i dont really care about the other races.

I will probably have a nervous breakdown if Maryland or New Jersey votes Republican. *Whats the point in trying*
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« Reply #70 on: January 30, 2006, 04:37:29 pm »
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>30% Tossup
>50% Slight
>70% Lean
>90% Solid

My prediction among non-solid races:
AZ:† Kyl +16
CT:† Lieberman +22 (if Weicker runs)
FL:† Nelson +11
MD:† Cardin +4
MI:† Stabenow +20
MN:† Klobuchar +3
MO:† Talent +1
MT:† Burns +8
NE:† Nelson +13
NV:† Ensign +24
NJ:† Menendez +3
OH:† DeWine +2 (Hackett); DeWine +5 (Brown)
PA:† Casey +6
RI:† Chafee +7
TN:† GOP +2
WA:† Cantwell +11

You know, NM *is* having a Senate election this year, believe it or not. Tongue
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« Reply #71 on: January 30, 2006, 05:12:26 pm »
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You know, NM *is* having a Senate election this year, believe it or not. Tongue

Maybe if Bingaman would do something once in awhile, I would have noticed Wink
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« Reply #72 on: January 30, 2006, 05:23:45 pm »
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You know, NM *is* having a Senate election this year, believe it or not. Tongue

Maybe if Bingaman would do something once in awhile, I would have noticed Wink

If he ever does anything, send me a PM - I can't remember anything either Tongue
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« Reply #73 on: January 31, 2006, 08:56:00 pm »
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Key:
Light=less than 6% victory margin
Medium=6% or more victory margin
Dark=11% or more victory margin

Notes:
Vermont is colored dark red, but it should be dark green. There was no option for independents.

The Democrats will win in Virginia if and only if Mark Warner runs. Otherwise, Allen wins in a landslide.

Arizona and Tennesse are both tossups, I just colored them with the color of the party more likely to win.

Rhode Island is dark blue, but if Chafee loses the Republican primary, it becomes dark red.

Outcome:
Dems win 7 seats.

110th Congress:
51 Dem.
48 Rep.
1 Ind.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2006, 08:57:33 pm by Soaring Eagle »Logged

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Social score: -0.17

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« Reply #74 on: February 01, 2006, 06:49:29 am »
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The Democrats will win in Virginia if and only if Mark Warner runs. Otherwise, Allen wins in a landslide.

Warner has officially ruled out a Senate run, so Allen will win (unless he gets "outted" - but that's a different story.

Arizona and Tennesse are both tossups, I just colored them with the color of the party more likely to win.

I don't really think Arizona is a tossup.  True, Kyl isn't the most popular guy in the world but he's still popular enough to get re-elected, polling over 50%, especially with the Democrats running the next best thing to a sacrifical lamb.

I also don't think Democrats have a shot at Nevada, although once again if those outting rumors turn out to be true and it's Ensign, then...
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