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Author Topic: Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps  (Read 75679 times)
Joe Republic
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« on: December 21, 2005, 05:28:41 pm »

This is subject to change as new polls and information on candidates emerge:




Light blue/red: Very close election
Plain blue/red: Reasonably close
Dark blue/red: Wide margin of victory

My current prediction for the partisan breakdown of the 110th Senate: No change.

Republicans - 55
Democrats - 44
Independent - 1
« Last Edit: December 21, 2005, 07:39:03 pm by Tredrick »Logged



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opebo
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2005, 05:51:38 pm »
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I believe that is a gain of three for the Democrats, so:
Republicans  52
Democrats    47
Independent 1
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2005, 06:43:45 pm »
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Key:

Deep Red -Democratic gains
Pink -Democratic holds

Dark Blue -Republican gains
Light Blue -Republican holds

Pale Green -Bernie Sanders.




I agree completely (except for RI).
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tweed
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« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2005, 06:50:11 pm »
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GOP gains MN, maybe NJ
Dems gain nothing

GOP +1 or +2
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2005, 06:58:59 pm »
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GOP gains MN, maybe NJ
Dems gain nothing

GOP +1 or +2

good assessment, tweed.

any prediction map with a red pa is merely wishful thinking.
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Alcon
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2005, 07:08:08 pm »
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GOP gains MN, maybe NJ
Dems gain nothing

GOP +1 or +2

good assessment, tweed.

any prediction map with a red pa is merely wishful thinking.

Or thinking based on poll numbers instead of gut instinct.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2005, 07:11:02 pm »
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GOP gains MN, maybe NJ
Dems gain nothing

GOP +1 or +2

good assessment, tweed.

any prediction map with a red pa is merely wishful thinking.

Or thinking based on poll numbers instead of gut instinct.

how relevant are poll numbers this far out?

dont you remember casey's past performance as a candidate?  pretty piss poor if oyu ask me.

and im by no means a santorum suppoter.
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Alcon
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2005, 07:17:38 pm »
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how relevant are poll numbers this far out?

A tad more relevant than most anything else.

dont you remember casey's past performance as a candidate?  pretty piss poor if oyu ask me.

I'm not very familiar with that, but it's very hard to do away with a lead of this big of a margin.  It's not your thinking that Santorum could win that bothers me; it's your certainty that he will.  I don't say Casey is a lock.

and im by no means a santorum suppoter.

Never understood why someone would predict their party to do better - it just results in disappointment.  But I appreciate that.
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2005, 07:21:33 pm »
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Key:
Dark Colour - Margin of Victory above 20%
Fair Colour - Margin of Victory below 20%
Light Colour - Margin of Victory below 10%

Predicted Senate
Republicans - 53 seats
Democrats - 46 seats
Independent - 1 seat

Note: Vermont is shaded as Democrat.  There was no colour for Independents.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2005, 07:23:01 pm »



Here you go, Yates. Smiley


Edit:  I couldn't help noticing that you have NM and WV shaded dark blue.  Do you know something we don't?
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« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2005, 07:24:13 pm »
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i really dont 'have' a party, alcon.  the democrats probably couldnt do any worse than the republicans have done in congress.

as for santorum, he is 1. smarter than casey, 2. a muuuuuuuuuuuuch better campaigner, 3. has a very dedicated group of supporters (look at phil).

im not 'certain' santorum will win.  if i were to bet, i would certainly put my money on him.  as ive said many times, casey is just ron klink with a famous last name.
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« Reply #11 on: December 21, 2005, 07:37:02 pm »
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Thank you, Joe.  I apologize.  I shaded New Mexico and West Virginia blue by error.  Please think of them as shaded dark red.
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« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2005, 07:39:25 pm »
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Vermont's red because I couldn't get it to shade green, despite multiple tries.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2005, 07:43:54 pm by Left of the Dial »Logged




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Joe Republic
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« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2005, 07:43:21 pm »

Thanks for stickying this, ATFFL. Cheesy
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« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2005, 07:46:10 pm »
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I was planning on creating a thread like this early in the new year.  No harm in pushing it up a bit.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #15 on: December 21, 2005, 08:14:32 pm »
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Key:
Dark Colour - Margin of Victory above 20%
Fair Colour - Margin of Victory below 20%
Light Colour - Margin of Victory below 10%

Predicted Senate
Republicans - 53 seats
Democrats - 46 seats
Independent - 1 seat

Note: Vermont is shaded as Democrat. There was no colour for Independents.


michigan will be within 10%
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« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2005, 08:41:37 pm »
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Here you go, Yates. Smiley


Edit: I couldn't help noticing that you have NM and WV shaded dark blue. Do you know something we don't?

I agree except give MS to the GOP and OH and MO to the Dems. I think Brown will win Ohio and McCaskill will beat Talent.  Dark horse Tennessee for the Dems.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2005, 08:49:02 pm »

I think Brown will win Ohio

You think Brown will win Ohio?!?  I'm sorry to break this to you, but that won't be happening.  The only Dem who has even a remote chance of winning is Paul Hackett, and even then, it's a slim chance.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #18 on: December 21, 2005, 08:57:39 pm »

Wikipedia is keeping a fairly useful summary of all the Senate elections next year:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Senate_election%2C_2006 (near the bottom)
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« Reply #19 on: December 21, 2005, 10:25:14 pm »
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My realistic prediction: Democrats pick up Pennsylvania with no other changes anywhere.
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« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2005, 10:58:37 pm »
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I have PA as Leaning Democrat/Pick-up and that's the only one that I see changing as it is right now. If I had to guess what will happen in ten months, I'd say Chafee and Burns fall, while Kean grabs NJ.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2005, 11:18:20 pm »
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Right now, I'm going to say only Pennsylvania changes, but a number of these are obviously in the air at present.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2005, 11:28:16 pm »
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This has the following code:

Dark red/blue = probable gain
medium red/blue = certain hold
light red/blue =  probable hold
medium green = Vermont
light green= no race

Right now I see a net +4 for the Dems, but I'm basing this in part on a gut feeling that 2006 is not going to be a good year for the GOP.  Bush seems determined to enable to let the Democrats run as the party in favor of liberty and the constitution. Giving the Dems a chance to run for something instead of against the GOP will probably help them gain several of the close races. The current scandals will hurt the GOP, but by themselves they aren't enough to account for the swing I currently foresee, even if we have some convinctions and or confessions before the election, since most voters will just see the Dems as merely not having the opportunity, not as being more honest.

A net +7 is the best the Dems can hope for, while the GOP could see a net +3.

This also assumes that Chafee wins the GOP nomination, if not then the seat is a certain Democratic gain.
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My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
Joe Republic
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« Reply #23 on: December 21, 2005, 11:32:07 pm »

The main thing thing that stands out with your map is Nevada.  I would have thought John Ensign is fairly safe, especially with his current opponent (Jack Carter).  Are you predicting a new entry into the race?
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« Reply #24 on: December 21, 2005, 11:46:03 pm »
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I know Ensign doesn't have high negatives, but he doesn't have high positives either, and if mid-terms turn national and pro-Democratic as I think they will, those low positives leave him vulnerable in my opinion.  Jack Carter is well positioned family-wise if this race ends up turning on civil liberties and personal integrity.  Say what you will about his father's ability as President, (and I won't disagree too loudly if you do) he has a strong reputation in those two areas which as of today look likely to be key in the 2006 election.

On the other hand, if I'm wrong about where the focus of the campaign will be, we'll probably end up with a boring mid-term with a net swing of at most two seats either way.
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My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
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