Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps

[Soaring Eagle]

The Democrats will win in Virginia if and only if Mark Warner runs. Otherwise, Allen wins in a landslide.

Warner has officially ruled out a Senate run, so Allen will win (unless he gets "outted" - but that's a different story.

Arizona and Tennesse are both tossups, I just colored them with the color of the party more likely to win.

I don't really think Arizona is a tossup.  True, Kyl isn't the most popular guy in the world but he's still popular enough to get re-elected, polling over 50%, especially with the Democrats running the next best thing to a sacrifical lamb.

I also don't think Democrats have a shot at Nevada, although once again if those outting rumors turn out to be true and it's Ensign, then...

In that case, the Republicans win Virginia too.

I think the Dems will try hard to oust Kyl. I think it will be close, but like I said, I think the Republicans are more likely to win.

In my opinion, things are looking grim for the GOP in Nevada. If Jack Carter is running, he will likely have his dad and Harry Reid campaigning for him. Jack Carter has more name recoginition than John Ensign, and if I were an average voter, I'd probably keep that in mind.

[nclib]

Why is Washington colored gray? Cantwell is running for re-election.

[Soaring Eagle]

Why is Washington colored gray? Cantwell is running for re-election.

My bad, I forgot all about Cantwell. Washington is red.

[Harry]

Lott won't be reelected.

[Frodo]

Lott won't be reelected.

Based on what exactly?  As of now he is a shoo-in for re-election, and nothing I know of has come up that would suggest otherwise.

[Gabu]

Lott won't be reelected.

Based on what exactly?  As of now he is a shoo-in for re-election, and nothing I know of has come up that would suggest otherwise.

Based on the fact that Harry doesn't want him to be re-elected, as far as I can tell.

[Soaring Eagle]

Lott won't be reelected.

What makes you think that?

Seriously though, is there something you know that the rest of us don't? I mean, you're from Mississippi and probably know a lot more about the Senate race there than I do.

[Harry]

Lott won't be reelected.

Based on what exactly?  As of now he is a shoo-in for re-election, and nothing I know of has come up that would suggest otherwise.

Based on the fact that Harry doesn't want him to be re-elected, as far as I can tell.

Well...yeah...

Lott won't be reelected.

What makes you think that?

Seriously though, is there something you know that the rest of us don't? I mean, you're from Mississippi and probably know a lot more about the Senate race there than I do.

Mike Moore could knock him off.  I wouldn't bet on it, or think he even would have a 20% of doing it, but it's not outside the realm of possibilty.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Lott won't be reelected.

What makes you think that?

Seriously though, is there something you know that the rest of us don't? I mean, you're from Mississippi and probably know a lot more about the Senate race there than I do.

Mike Moore could knock him off.  I wouldn't bet on it, or think he even would have a 20% of doing it, but it's not outside the realm of possibilty.

I'm confused.  You think there's a 20 percent chance yet you say it will happen?

[Gustaf]

Lott won't be reelected.

What makes you think that?

Seriously though, is there something you know that the rest of us don't? I mean, you're from Mississippi and probably know a lot more about the Senate race there than I do.

Mike Moore could knock him off.  I wouldn't bet on it, or think he even would have a 20% of doing it, but it's not outside the realm of possibilty.

I'm confused.  You think there's a 20 percent chance yet you say it will happen?

No.

He says there is a 10% chance of it happening, yet he says it will happen.

[Harry]

Lott won't be reelected.

What makes you think that?

Seriously though, is there something you know that the rest of us don't? I mean, you're from Mississippi and probably know a lot more about the Senate race there than I do.

Mike Moore could knock him off.  I wouldn't bet on it, or think he even would have a 20% of doing it, but it's not outside the realm of possibilty.

I'm confused.  You think there's a 20 percent chance yet you say it will happen?

No.

He says there is a 10% chance of it happening, yet he says it will happen.

Realistically, 10% chance or less.  But I'm just going out on a limb and making a bold prediction.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Lott won't be reelected.

What makes you think that?

Seriously though, is there something you know that the rest of us don't? I mean, you're from Mississippi and probably know a lot more about the Senate race there than I do.

Mike Moore could knock him off.  I wouldn't bet on it, or think he even would have a 20% of doing it, but it's not outside the realm of possibilty.

I'm confused.  You think there's a 20 percent chance yet you say it will happen?

No.

He says there is a 10% chance of it happening, yet he says it will happen.

Realistically, 10% chance or less.  But I'm just going out on a limb and making a bold prediction.

Making a prediction you are 90% sure incorrect could be considered bold, I suppose.  I can think of a number of other words for it, too.

[Soaring Eagle]

Lott won't be reelected.

What makes you think that?

Seriously though, is there something you know that the rest of us don't? I mean, you're from Mississippi and probably know a lot more about the Senate race there than I do.

Mike Moore could knock him off.  I wouldn't bet on it, or think he even would have a 20% of doing it, but it's not outside the realm of possibilty.

I'm confused.  You think there's a 20 percent chance yet you say it will happen?

No.

He says there is a 10% chance of it happening, yet he says it will happen.

Realistically, 10% chance or less.  But I'm just going out on a limb and making a bold prediction.

Kudos to you for being so positive. If what you say is true, then I would agree that the chance is very remote, but could happen.

[Gabu]

Maybe Trent Lott will turn out to be the one who's gay.

[WMS]

2 New R's, 2 New D's, no change. Highly subjective, as are the rest of these. ^_^
*edit* In case it's not clear, I'm not predicting voting %s. The deep blue or red colors stand for seat change.
*edit2* I know I specified the EC #'s NOT to show up...hold on a sec*

[Sibboleth]

Quick point; the incumbent Nebraska Senator is a Democrat

[WMS]

Quick point; the incumbent Nebraska Senator is a Democrat

I'll fix that. Maybe not today, but I'll fix it.

*edit* Then again, maybe I will fix it today. Thanks for pointing that out. ^_^

[Ben.]

Revised prediction.

Firstly some general trends on which this prediction is based… 

I have no doubt that the GOP once again will display its traditional flare for campaign and we’ll see a disciplined, concerted campaign from the Republicans securing good showings in close races across the country.

Despite the GOP’s structural advantages this will be the third election where they have been in effective control of all three branches of government and there will be a “voter fatigue” factor exacerbated by the scandal (identified by many with the GOP’s congressional leadership) and this will have an impact, though perhaps it will be more marked in the House rather than the Senate.

While the GOP can be expected to conduct its campaign with drive and discipline I have no doubt that as usual the Democrats will conduct a largely directionless and ill disciplined national campaign  which will see the competive races largely decided on the basis of the strengths and weaknesses of the local campaigns. With no “theme”, “narrative”, “message” and the increasing failure of a party that seeks to hold together a collation of Michael Moore and Barbra Boxer together with Phil Bredensen and John Breaux to endorse a single national platform makes any Democratic version of ’94 or ’02 highly unlikely.             

As I’ve said I think that in the House Republican weakness and a number of strong Democratic candidates might well produce a good haul for the Democrats, the Senate is likely to make for gloomier reading.   


No Republican incumbent is stepping down this year (save Frist) while in contrast two Democrats are and a third race (in New Jersey) could easily be characterised as an “open race” with Bob Menendez’s elevation to replace Jon Corzine last year. All three races see strong GOP candidates behind which their parties have largely united against a string of less impressive Democratic candidates.

While Steele is proving a strong candidate, Cardin is also a credible candidate for the Dems and MD’s strongly Democratic tilt is likely to mean the Democrats retain the senate seat in contrast the Democrat’s enjoy no such advantages in MN and a very close race seems likely (though I’ve given the edge to Kennedy I’d still say it’s a toss-up).

Of all the three “open” races New Jersey is perhaps the GOP’s best prospect; a strong candidate in the form of Tom Kean and a weak Democratic incumbent will probably enable the GOP to maintain and increase Kean’s early lead in the polls making a pickup IMHO very likely.         

 
Despite the fact that no Republican (save as mentioned Frist) is standing down this year there are a number of weaker incumbents in states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island, Montana and Missouri. Of these potentially competitive races for the Democrats in RI, MT and OH have been undermined by the failure of the party to produce any particularly strong candidates and while the Dem’s prospects can’t be ruled out its likely that the Republican incumbents will be able to outspend and beat their comparatively lightweight opponents in November (though outsider chances for the Dems certainly exist in all three).


Central to Democratic hope this year is Pennsylvania, where the Party has recruited a powerful candidate in the form of State Treasurer Bob Casey the son of popular former Governor Robert Casey. Casey’s task is much tougher than the early polls might suggest his opponent, incumbent republican Rick Santorum is a prodigious fundraiser and energetic campaigner and has come from behind to win before, yet Casey is a strong candidate as well and continues to lead Santorum by anything from 10-15 points. Santorum is also hurt by the fact that he is an overtly partisan and ideological politician, with a long paper trail, in a moderate State which generally favours Democrats facing a popular moderate Democrat in the form of Casey. The race will narrow significantly as Election Day draws near but it seems unlikely that Santorum, however much some might hope, will be able to over come the gap.         
   
Beyond Pennsylvania only one other state has show consistent leads for the Democratic candidate and that has been Missouri. It seems to not be that Jim Talent is hugely unpopular but rather that he faces a challenger (in State Auditor Claire McCaskill) whom many Missouri voters seem to have taken a real liking to and seems to be running a strong concerted campaign even this far out. Talent has demonstrated a impressive ability to raise cash in the past and no doubt he will this year – however its undeniable that McCaskill and the Dems will also raise plenty of cash with which to challenge Talent. Like Minnesota this race will be close right to the end but unlike Minnesota I’d give the edge to the Dems here.       


Finally there’s Tennessee, maybe I should have dismissed the prospects for Harold Ford just as I did those of Morrison, Hackett and Brown by ranking it as a long shot, but you can’t take away from the fact that polls repeatedly show the race as close and Ford has sunk a great deal of effort and money already into the race and over a divided GOP field it maybe that this race will prove a sleeper – without a doubt the GOP will enjoy an advantage but it will likely remain a slight one and one which could vanish altogether should Ford continue to pursue the same effective and concerted campaign he is at present.


In other races, little to report really, Allen will win in Virginia though I can’t help thinking that with cash James Webb will perform surprisingly well, though its highly doubtful that he’ll even come close to winning. In Nevada if Goodman runs things could well get interesting, if its Carter expect a solid re-election for John Ensign but I wouldn’t put a credible performance past Carter. Florida no doubt (excepting a late entry by another republican) sees an impressive win for Nelson over a hapless Harris campaign.   



Republicans: 55 (nc)

Democrats: 44 (nc)

Independents: 1 (nc)   

[© Tweed the Younger]

Republicans: 56 (+1, Minnesota)
Democrats: 43 (-1)
Independents: 1

[Harry]

quite the pessimist, Tweed!

I'm afraid I may have to soon move MS back into the GOP column...


if I don't slit my wrists first...

[Reaganfan]

Okay, here's my predictions.

Some highlights:

OHIO: As an Ohio resident myself, Dewine has been a fine moderate Republican Senator, he is a household name much more than any of his possible democratic opponents. Dewine will get my vote this November, and will win the election.

PENNSYLVANIA: While I feel the GOP may very well elect a Republican Governor in November, I feel that the Democrats may very will elect a Democratic Senator. I do not expect Senator Santorum to win re-election. I know some from Pennsylvania (NOT JUST PHIL), and Santorum is...somewhat of a household name, but not usually in a good way. The way I hear it is, "Hey, Rick Santorum..." and it's something negative. I think he has an unfair bad rap...and that will not lead him over the victory line this November.

MISSOURI: I believe that Jim will show his Talent this November against Claire McCaskill...Did I spell that right? I don't care because I won't be spelling that as the name of a US Senator in 2007.

FLORIDA: Personally, I think Katherine Harris is a babe, but not Senate material. Senator Nelson will beat her this November. Ever see that pic of her riding the horse...without the makeup??

MARYLAND: Atleast it's competitive...but the state is so damn liberal, I can't see Steele getting the win. Nevertheless, the GOP can still hope for the best, since November is a long ways away.

MASSACHUSETTS: Although he is more of a nut then ever, the people of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts will re-elected Ted Kennedy again....why the hell did he name his dog Splash? Have he no moral dignity? "I'd still rather do shootin' with Dick Cheney than go drivin' with Ted Kennedy".

NEW JERSEY: Tom Kean Sr. was one of...if not the best Governor in New Jersey's history just 15-20 years ago, and his son, Tom Kean Jr...with be a great Senator come 2007.

Enough chit-chat...here's my map:::

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm predicting +4 for the Democrats. That's pickups in Montana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

[Ben.]

Republicans: 56 (+1, Minnesota)
Democrats: 43 (-1)
Independents: 1

Kean will win New Jersey.

[WMS]

Republicans: 56 (+1, Minnesota)
Democrats: 43 (-1)
Independents: 1

Kean will win New Jersey.

We can certainly hope.

[Frodo]

I'm predicting +4 for the Democrats. That's pickups in Montana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

That's if we are lucky, and we don't screw up too badly as we did in Ohio.  A four seat gain is the max that we can achieve -a more likely outcome is if we make a net gain of one, or maybe even two seats in the Senate.