Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps
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Author Topic: Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps  (Read 118775 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #100 on: February 14, 2006, 03:35:55 PM »




Republicans: 56 (+1, Minnesota)
Democrats: 43 (-1)
Independents: 1


Kean will win New Jersey.

No
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #101 on: February 14, 2006, 06:37:11 PM »


No
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #102 on: February 14, 2006, 10:08:41 PM »


Yes.
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #103 on: February 14, 2006, 10:09:08 PM »


NASOPOWER!
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #104 on: February 15, 2006, 08:50:23 AM »


Indeed its time the place got someone competent and decent to represent them… New Jersey deserves better than the triumvirate of Corzine, Menendez and Lautenberg Tongue       

At the same time though Casey will win in PA - by the skin of his teath.
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Q
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« Reply #105 on: February 15, 2006, 03:49:15 PM »



4 incumbents are defeated, and no open seats change hands.  +2D.

Updated, with 3 changes:


3 incumbents are defeated, and no open seats change hands.  +3D.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #106 on: February 15, 2006, 08:02:44 PM »


I'm certainly surprised that you believed Kean will win.

After all, Bush was going to win 40 states.
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opebo
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« Reply #107 on: February 15, 2006, 08:15:39 PM »


D +5
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Gabu
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« Reply #108 on: February 15, 2006, 09:22:46 PM »
« Edited: February 16, 2006, 12:49:47 AM by Senator Gabu »

It's way, way too early to be seriously posting a prediction, but I'm going to post one anyway just to have a base prediction available, which will likely endure heavy updating as we get closer to Election Day:



Republicans: 53 (-2)
Democrats: 46 (+2)
Independent: 1

R -> D: Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania
D -> R: New Jersey

Percentages represent percentage received by winning candidate.

---

The last poll I saw from New Jersey put Kean ahead, but I really don't know what to think there.  I have a gut feeling that Kean has an ever-so-slight advantage, but my current prediction there should really not be taken as what I think will actually happen; I don't really have a clue there.
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #109 on: February 15, 2006, 10:35:38 PM »



Pennsylvania (much like Iowa in my Governor's Map) is purely optimism talking. I wish to be optimistic at leats once very month or so. Smiley
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Gabu
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« Reply #110 on: February 15, 2006, 11:49:27 PM »

Pennsylvania (much like Iowa in my Governor's Map) is purely optimism talking. I wish to be optimistic at leats once very month or so. Smiley

Pennsylvania, but not Montana?

That's rather selective optimism. Tongue
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Ben.
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« Reply #111 on: February 16, 2006, 06:46:25 AM »


Kean’s polling a damn site better in New Jersey than Kennedy is in Minnesota and Menendez is certainly a weaker opponent than Klobuchar seems to be proving and yet you seem to think that Kennedy will win in MN, what’s more I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kean garner a whole load more cash than Kennedy, primarily from the big GOP donors in NY and the North East who simply don’t have any other local candidates to give to.   

What Bush winning 40 states has to do with it I don’t know though.
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WMS
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« Reply #112 on: February 16, 2006, 02:27:56 PM »


Indeed its time the place got someone competent and decent to represent them… New Jersey deserves better than the triumvirate of Corzine, Menendez and Lautenberg Tongue       

At the same time though Casey will win in PA - by the skin of his teath.

Yes, New Jersey deserves better than that sorry lot Wink

And I agree with you on PA - Casey will win but it will be closer than many expect.

I would be happy to see both Kean and Casey win. Smiley
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Alcon
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« Reply #113 on: February 16, 2006, 02:29:20 PM »


This may be the most unfathomably braindead exchange on this Forum in a while.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #114 on: February 16, 2006, 02:54:48 PM »
« Edited: February 16, 2006, 02:57:03 PM by Orrin Hatch 2006 »

Kean’s polling a damn site better in New Jersey than Kennedy is in Minnesota and Menendez is certainly a weaker opponent than Klobuchar seems to be proving and yet you seem to think that Kennedy will win in MN, what’s more I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kean garner a whole load more cash than Kennedy, primarily from the big GOP donors in NY and the North East who simply don’t have any other local candidates to give to.   

What Bush winning 40 states has to do with it I don’t know though.

New Jersey is a much more Democratic state than Minnesota, in my mind.  2004, which saw Bush getting 46% in NJ, was an abberation, and the state has come back to earth.  The polling numbers are irrelevant, while Kean has a consistently small lead it's meaningless as both candidates are polling in the mid-30s. [And the newest Rasmussen poll has Menendez 39 Kean 36 actually].  By election day Menendez should win by about 2-3%.

Also, Kean may have money, but there's absolutely no way that he can outspend the NJ Democratic machine.  Past history shows us this.
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RJ
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« Reply #115 on: March 03, 2006, 06:10:14 PM »

Just noticed this: Only 1 of the deep South states has a senate election this year while every Northeastern state except 1 has one. The Democrats are favored to cut into their deficit this year by at least 1 seat and could gain as many as 4 while I'm sure the Republican party would be overjoyed to just break even.

Even though the Republicans have a clear majority in the Senate, there are fewer Republican senators(16) up for reelection than Democratic ones(17). The election is 8 months out, but the Republicans really need some things to go their way just to maintain status quo. By the numbers, this year is their opportunity to open the gap and get that 60-40 majority. If the Democrats gain 3 seats this year, that would be monumental since in 2008 and 2010 combined(given the current makeup of the Senate) there will be 27 Democrats and 38 Republicans up for reelection.

How did this happen?
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jfern
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« Reply #116 on: March 03, 2006, 06:14:58 PM »

Just noticed this: Only 1 of the deep South states has a senate election this year while every Northeastern state except 1 has one. The Democrats are favored to cut into their deficit this year by at least 1 seat and could gain as many as 4 while I'm sure the Republican party would be overjoyed to just break even.

Even though the Republicans have a clear majority in the Senate, there are fewer Republican senators(16) up for reelection than Democratic ones(17). The election is 8 months out, but the Republicans really need some things to go their way just to maintain status quo. By the numbers, this year is their opportunity to open the gap and get that 60-40 majority. If the Democrats gain 3 seats this year, that would be monumental since in 2008 and 2010 combined(given the current makeup of the Senate) there will be 27 Democrats and 38 Republicans up for reelection.

How did this happen?

It's only 15 Republican seats. In addition to the 17 Democratic seats, there's Jeffords' open seat, where one IINO will be replaced with another IINO.
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Ben.
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« Reply #117 on: March 09, 2006, 05:38:59 AM »


Ohio: Another toss-up here. I was expecting a narrow Dem pick-up here with the meltdown of the state GOP, but lately I have seen DeWine with a slight lead over Brown. I may change my prediction later on.


"slight lead"!!! - He beating Brown by nine pionts and that without running a single ad!
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #118 on: March 12, 2006, 12:02:56 PM »



Light blue/red: Toss-up
Plain blue/red: Lean
Dark blue/red: Solid

I've called them (and I'm sticking with them), no matter how implausible some of these predictions may be

Dave
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Jake
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« Reply #119 on: March 12, 2006, 01:03:46 PM »

As of Today:

Strong Democrat:
Washington
Michigan
Nebraska
Maryland
Florida
Minnesota

Weak Democrat:
Pennsylvania Pick-up
Montana Pick-up

Weak Republican:
New Jersey Pick-up
Rhode Island
Missouri
Ohio

Strong Republican:
Tennessee
Virginia
Arizona

All other races are super-safe.
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #120 on: March 12, 2006, 01:06:54 PM »

Id move Arizona to super safe.  Kyl is safe, period.
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Galactic Overlord
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« Reply #121 on: March 16, 2006, 10:29:01 PM »

I wouldn't put Minnesota as strong Democrat.
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The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
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« Reply #122 on: March 16, 2006, 10:44:16 PM »

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Ben.
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« Reply #123 on: March 17, 2006, 04:20:05 AM »


That seems likley, though MT, MN and MO will be on a knife edge and PA will be closer than folks think (though i'd imagine - Hope - Casey will win).
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #124 on: March 17, 2006, 11:43:00 PM »

How is it that people can make maps with Red, Blue, Green and Gray states? I can only get Red/Blue/Grey or Red/Blue/Green for any map with the current 50 states on it.
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