Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps

[Jacobtm]

Red/Blue = Hold
Dark Red/Blue = Gain
Light Red/Blue = Weak Hold
Green = Bernie Sanders

Democrats gain 3 seats.

Missouri and NJ are the two hardest to call in my opinion; those could both end up being wrong. Though I think the Democrats will skim by in both states just because of general anti-Republican sentiment.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

How is it that people can make maps with Red, Blue, Green and Gray states? I can only get Red/Blue/Grey or Red/Blue/Green for any map with the current 50 states on it.

Two possibilities:

1. They took the map and altered it in a paint program and saved it as a file on the internet.

2. The URL for the maps created by the generator have a number of entrues of the form &XX;#;#;#  where XX is the two letter postal code for the state, the first number is color where 0=gray;1=red;2=blue;3=green, the second number is the number of EV's, and the thirs level is the decile from 3 to 9 (30% to 90%).  So if one alters the URL by hand, one can use the generator to create maps that the UI cannot.  Note also:  Gray doesn't change shade according to the decile and if the generator isn't expecting to use green for a particular year, you get gray instead, but with white numbers instead of black numbers as is usual for gray.

[Jacobtm]

How is it that people can make maps with Red, Blue, Green and Gray states? I can only get Red/Blue/Grey or Red/Blue/Green for any map with the current 50 states on it.

Two possibilities:

1. They took the map and altered it in a paint program and saved it as a file on the internet.

2. The URL for the maps created by the generator have a number of entrues of the form &XX;#;#;#  where XX is the two letter postal code for the state, the first number is color where 0=gray;1=red;2=blue;3=green, the second number is the number of EV's, and the thirs level is the decile from 3 to 9 (30% to 90%).  So if one alters the URL by hand, one can use the generator to create maps that the UI cannot.  Note also:  Gray doesn't change shade according to the decile and if the generator isn't expecting to use green for a particular year, you get gray instead, but with white numbers instead of black numbers as is usual for gray.

Thanks alot! All I had to do was change the year to 1960 in the URL and then change VT's color to 3. That was so easy!

Thanks again,
Jacob

[Torie]

Sorry to ask a question, probably asked many times before, but how do you generate these senate maps?  In any event, the GOP drops Pennsylvania and Montana, and picks up New Jersey, for a GOP loss of one seat.

[Gabu]

Sorry to ask a question, probably asked many times before, but how do you generate these senate maps?  In any event, the GOP drops Pennsylvania and Montana, and picks up New Jersey, for a GOP loss of one seat.

It's quite simple, actually: go here, set the winner of each state and the percentage you want, then click "Show map link" at the bottom, and finally copy and paste the text you see into the post in which you want the map to appear.  To make a state grey, just set it to "toss-up" (the T column).

As a more advanced thing to do, if you want to set Vermont to be green (for "independent"), look at the thing you copied and pasted for something that looks like this:

VT=#;#;#

where "#" is some number.

To make it green, change the first number to "3", which is the number for "independent", so it then looks like this:

VT=3;#;#

[Torie]

Thanks Senator for the assistance. I appreciate it.

[Gabu]

Thanks Senator for the assistance. I appreciate it.

Call me Gabu.  The Senator is a title from our fantasy election section, which, by the way, you may want to check out if you're so inclined.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I think we'll have the status quo, with PA and NJ switching spots.

[Smash255]

Also, Kean may have money, but there's absolutely no way that he can outspend the NJ Democratic machine.  Past history shows us this.

You are correct, but spending is irrelivent. Six years ago, Jon Corzine outspent his opponent 12:1, and won by a whisker. It's substance that matters - and substance that Bob Menendez does not have - that his opponent, does.

wasn't that the reasoning some gave of why Foorester was going to beat Corzine last year??

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Also, Kean may have money, but there's absolutely no way that he can outspend the NJ Democratic machine.  Past history shows us this.

You are correct, but spending is irrelivent. Six years ago, Jon Corzine outspent his opponent 12:1, and won by a whisker. It's substance that matters - and substance that Bob Menendez does not have - that his opponent, does.

wasn't that the reasoning some gave of why Foorester was going to beat Corzine last year??

As a candidate, Kean Jr. is approximately 100 times better than Forrester.

[Gustaf]

I just posted a long list, but then it disappeared somehow.

Anyway, to make a long list short, here are my updated most vulnerable:

10. Nebraska  (10)
9. Tennessee (9)
8. Ohio (
7. Maryland (7)

Cut-off between competitive and non-competitive

6. Minnesota (5)
5. Rhode Island (2)
4. Missouri (4)
3. Montana (6)
2. New Jersey (3)

Cut-off between "I predict as switching and not"

1. Pennsylvania (1)

[Downwinder]

March 2006:
Based mostly on my gut feeling.

Rhode Island:  Chafee takes an easier than expected win vs. Whitehouse,  55%-43%.

Maryland:  Cardin wins the open seat versus Steele, 54%-45%.

Pennsylvania:  While not the blow-out that it might have been, Casey still defeats Santorum, 53%-46%.

Montana:  Morrison burns Burns, 52%-46%.

Minnesota:  Klobuchar takes the open seat over Kennedy, 52%-46%.

Missouri:  McCaskill beats Talent, 52%-47%.

New Jersey:  Menendez wins by just a hair versus Kean, 50.6%-49.1%.

Nevada:  Election night surprise!!  Goodman 50.2%, Ensign 49.6%.

Other interesting races:

Tennessee:  Bryant 58%, Ford 41%.

Ohio:  DeWine 57%, Brown 42%.

Florida: Nelson 57%, Harris 39%.

Washington:  Cantwell 58%, McGavick 40%.

Nebraska:  Nelson 59%, Ricketts 41%.

Virginia:  Allen 59%, Webb 41%.

Michigan:  Stabenow 59%, Bouchard 40%.



(R)51
(D)48
(I)1

[Gustaf]

Here are my updated most vulnerable, having looked at the approval ratings:

Didn't realize Nelson was so popular gonna take him off the list. Not sure who to replace with, but I guess Stabenow. Menendez decent approval rating compared to Burns abysmal one makes me switch these races.

10. Michigan (new)
9. Tennessee (9)
8. Ohio ( 8 )
7. Maryland (7)

Cut-off between competitive and non-competitive

6. Minnesota (6)
5. Rhode Island (5)
4. Missouri (4)
3. New Jersey (2)
2. Montana (3)

Cut-off between "I predict as switching and not"

1. Pennsylvania (1)

[Soaring Eagle]

March 2006:
Based mostly on my gut feeling.

Rhode Island:  Chafee takes an easier than expected win vs. Whitehouse,  55%-43%.

Maryland:  Cardin wins the open seat versus Steele, 54%-45%.

Pennsylvania:  While not the blow-out that it might have been, Casey still defeats Santorum, 53%-46%.

Montana:  Morrison burns Burns, 52%-46%.

Minnesota:  Klobuchar takes the open seat over Kennedy, 52%-46%.

Missouri:  McCaskill beats Talent, 52%-47%.

New Jersey:  Menendez wins by just a hair versus Kean, 50.6%-49.1%.

Nevada:  Election night surprise!!  Goodman 50.2%, Ensign 49.6%.

Other interesting races:

Tennessee:  Bryant 58%, Ford 41%.

Ohio:  DeWine 57%, Brown 42%.

Florida: Nelson 57%, Harris 39%.

Washington:  Cantwell 58%, McGavick 40%.

Nebraska:  Nelson 59%, Ricketts 41%.

Virginia:  Allen 59%, Webb 41%.

Michigan:  Stabenow 59%, Bouchard 40%.



(R)51
(D)48
(I)1

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

[Ben.]

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

Maybe TN, but Brown is going to get crushed in OH.

[Soaring Eagle]

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

Maybe TN, but Brown is going to get crushed in OH.

I don't know about "crushed," but I think that the whole Paul Hackett debacle really hurt his chances of winning.

[Ben.]

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

Maybe TN, but Brown is going to get crushed in OH.

I don't know about "crushed," but I think that the whole Paul Hackett debacle really hurt his chances of winning.

To be fair Brown hurt his chances of being elected on his own, he combines a very liberal voting record with a prickly persona…

A liberal could be elected in Ohio if his votes seemed coherent and he was both articulate and engaging (a-la Feingold or even Harkin) but Brown is neither articulate nor engaging and his voting record is little more than a shopping list for various liberal pressure groups and trades unions.

On top of all this DeWine was never in desperate trouble, his base might not have been happy with him but they will troop out for Blackwell in all likelihood come election day and would never countenance backing a candidate like Brown.

A maverick like Hakcett who seemed independent and coherent had a long shot, though he would probably have lost while Rep.Tim Ryan would probably have had a better chance but would still have been in a very tight race.

Brown’s votes outside of Cleveland will come thanks to Strickland being on the ballot and general dissatisfaction with the Bush and the GOP nationally and it will not be enough. DeWine will win Republican handily, ditto independents and will potentially take a significant share of Democratic voters – in the end I’d expect him to win by anything from 6-12 points over Brown.             

[Soaring Eagle]

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

Maybe TN, but Brown is going to get crushed in OH.

I don't know about "crushed," but I think that the whole Paul Hackett debacle really hurt his chances of winning.

To be fair Brown hurt his chances of being elected on his own, he combines a very liberal voting record with a prickly persona…

A liberal could be elected in Ohio if his votes seemed coherent and he was both articulate and engaging (a-la Feingold or even Harkin) but Brown is neither articulate nor engaging and his voting record is little more than a shopping list for various liberal pressure groups and trades unions.

On top of all this DeWine was never in desperate trouble, his base might not have been happy with him but they will troop out for Blackwell in all likelihood come election day and would never countenance backing a candidate like Brown.

A maverick like Hakcett who seemed independent and coherent had a long shot, though he would probably have lost while Rep.Tim Ryan would probably have had a better chance but would still have been in a very tight race.

Brown’s votes outside of Cleveland will come thanks to Strickland being on the ballot and general dissatisfaction with the Bush and the GOP nationally and it will not be enough. DeWine will win Republican handily, ditto independents and will potentially take a significant share of Democratic voters – in the end I’d expect him to win by anything from 6-12 points over Brown.             

Interesting assessment. I guess it just depends on what your definition of "crushed" is.

[Downwinder]

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

I don't know if Goodman is running either; I don't know when the filing deadline is in Nevada.  Goodman has been making noise about running.  I included him only because I believe he is the most viable challenger.

[Sam Spade]

This is just my feeling of where the Senate is at present.  It's not as conservative as my earlier prediction and holds a tad more to polls and extrenal circumstances with a slight emphasis on trend.

If I think one race might be moving one way or another, I'll post it.  Expect another commentary from me in a month or two:

Safe or Likely is roughly the same, it's just with safe I don't think there is any potential for anything to happen; likely means that something could happen, but probably won't.

Safe Democratic
California
Delaware
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Likely Democratic
Connecticut (guarding against Lieberman)
Florida (could move to safe before long, knowing Harris)
Michigan (I agree with Nick here actually, there is a good potential for movement on this one, most likely one to move to Lean or better.  If I see another poll with Ras. and SV, will move to lean)
Nebraska
Vermont (I)* (As close to a safe open seat we have, it'll probably go there over time)

Lean Democratic
Maryland*
Minnesota*
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington (things are stable here, this is mainly to guard against an incumbent who consistently polls under 50%, this could move to likely)

Toss Up
Missouri (R)
Montana (R)
New Jersey (D)*

Lean Republican
Ohio (R) (if I see another poll backing up Rasmussen's stats, I will change this to toss-up)
Rhode Island (lack of polls makes me stay conservative on this prediction, also that I think Chafee will win primary)
Tennessee* (I need to see who the nominee is here.)

Likely Republican
Arizona
Nevada
Virginia (most likely of the three Rep. Likelies to become closer)

Safe Republican
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

[Gustaf]

Sam, have you seen the latest Nebraska poll? I think you can move Nebraska to safe. Also, I'm inclined to say the same for Nevada, possibly also Arizona and Virginia. Polls there have been chrushing.

[Sam Spade]

Sam, have you seen the latest Nebraska poll? I think you can move Nebraska to safe. Also, I'm inclined to say the same for Nevada, possibly also Arizona and Virginia. Polls there have been chrushing.

One poll does not a move make, especially when it's Rasmussen.  I like corroboration.

Besides, this is predictive prediction; it is based more on polls than my earlier thoughts, but not entirely so.

Also, I define safe as where the opposing party or candidate has, to put it bluntly, no chance in hell of winning barring huge scandal or new development.

I don't see Nebraska that way and I don't see Nevada/Arizona/Virginia that way.

[minionofmidas]

This is just my feeling of where the Senate is at present.  It's not as conservative as my earlier prediction and holds a tad more to polls and extrenal circumstances with a slight emphasis on trend.

If I think one race might be moving one way or another, I'll post it.  Expect another commentary from me in a month or two:

Safe or Likely is roughly the same, it's just with safe I don't think there is any potential for anything to happen; likely means that something could happen, but probably won't.

Safe Democratic
California
Delaware
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Likely Democratic
Connecticut (guarding against Lieberman)
Florida (could move to safe before long, knowing Harris)
Michigan (I agree with Nick here actually, there is a good potential for movement on this one, most likely one to move to Lean or better.  If I see another poll with Ras. and SV, will move to lean)
Nebraska
Vermont (I)* (As close to a safe open seat we have, it'll probably go there over time)

Lean Democratic
Maryland*
Minnesota*
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington (things are stable here, this is mainly to guard against an incumbent who consistently polls under 50%, this could move to likely)

Toss Up
Missouri (R)
Montana (R)
New Jersey (D)*

Lean Republican
Ohio (R) (if I see another poll backing up Rasmussen's stats, I will change this to toss-up)
Rhode Island (lack of polls makes me stay conservative on this prediction, also that I think Chafee will win primary)
Tennessee* (I need to see who the nominee is here.)

Likely Republican
Arizona
Nevada
Virginia (most likely of the three Rep. Likelies to become closer)

Safe Republican
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Me, I'd move Hawaii one down on account of potentially divisive primary (though maybe you've looked at Republican challengers and noticed they aren't worth sh!t - I haven't) ... Florida one up ... New Jersey one up - basically that'll go Democrat by not too small a margin unless Menendez comes out personally looking bad out of some future scandal, which seeing as he's a North Jersey Democrat is definitely possible ... Nevada one down.

[Sam Spade]

Me, I'd move Hawaii one down on account of potentially divisive primary (though maybe you've looked at Republican challengers and noticed they aren't worth sh!t - I haven't) ... Florida one up ... New Jersey one up - basically that'll go Democrat by not too small a margin unless Menendez comes out personally looking bad out of some future scandal, which seeing as he's a North Jersey Democrat is definitely possible ... Nevada one down.

I haven't looked at this list in a while, but I'll comment below with my own "revisions"

There is no Hawaii Republican in the race who's raised a dime so far, so to me that means total non-entities.  HI-02 will probably be the most interesting general election race this year there, imo.

Considering polls, on the Democratic side Florida should probably moved to Safe, along with Vermont.  If I'm being quite literal with my own scale, I should probably pull Byrd down to Likely D, not because I think he has a chance of losing, but because he might be held to 60% or under this year and the polling on that race feels very similar to Virginia.  But since I really don't care, I leave him at safe.

Because of the Mason-Dixon poll out today on Montana, I would move it to lean Democrat.

I know your feelings on New Jersey and I know the way New Jersey typically goes as elections move on, but until I see that trend consistently emerge in the polling of this race, I will leave it at where the polling indicates it's at.

In Ohio, I believe Mason-Dixon over the others, period.  The recent uni poll confirms my suspicions on this one somewhat, though I would like to see more.

You and I actually agree on Rhode Island.  It's sort of funny, when I think about it.

Tennessee is on the cusp of being moved to Likely, especially if Corker wins the primary.

I actually think Arizona may be the one out of those three to become closer now, which changes my opinion of earlier.  Polling influences this opinion here, but a lot of Arizona polling tends to be shoddy, at best, so I may be totally wrong.

I am close to agreeing with you on Nevada.

Hope that revision is helpful.    I may be more thorough come July 1 or so.

[minionofmidas]

I hadn't noticed your post was a month old... explains Florida.