Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps

[Sam Spade]

Right now, I'm going to say only Pennsylvania changes, but a number of these are obviously in the air at present.

[Sam Spade]

This is just my feeling of where the Senate is at present.  It's not as conservative as my earlier prediction and holds a tad more to polls and extrenal circumstances with a slight emphasis on trend.

If I think one race might be moving one way or another, I'll post it.  Expect another commentary from me in a month or two:

Safe or Likely is roughly the same, it's just with safe I don't think there is any potential for anything to happen; likely means that something could happen, but probably won't.

Safe Democratic
California
Delaware
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Likely Democratic
Connecticut (guarding against Lieberman)
Florida (could move to safe before long, knowing Harris)
Michigan (I agree with Nick here actually, there is a good potential for movement on this one, most likely one to move to Lean or better.  If I see another poll with Ras. and SV, will move to lean)
Nebraska
Vermont (I)* (As close to a safe open seat we have, it'll probably go there over time)

Lean Democratic
Maryland*
Minnesota*
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington (things are stable here, this is mainly to guard against an incumbent who consistently polls under 50%, this could move to likely)

Toss Up
Missouri (R)
Montana (R)
New Jersey (D)*

Lean Republican
Ohio (R) (if I see another poll backing up Rasmussen's stats, I will change this to toss-up)
Rhode Island (lack of polls makes me stay conservative on this prediction, also that I think Chafee will win primary)
Tennessee* (I need to see who the nominee is here.)

Likely Republican
Arizona
Nevada
Virginia (most likely of the three Rep. Likelies to become closer)

Safe Republican
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

[Sam Spade]

Sam, have you seen the latest Nebraska poll? I think you can move Nebraska to safe. Also, I'm inclined to say the same for Nevada, possibly also Arizona and Virginia. Polls there have been chrushing.

One poll does not a move make, especially when it's Rasmussen.  I like corroboration.

Besides, this is predictive prediction; it is based more on polls than my earlier thoughts, but not entirely so.

Also, I define safe as where the opposing party or candidate has, to put it bluntly, no chance in hell of winning barring huge scandal or new development.

I don't see Nebraska that way and I don't see Nevada/Arizona/Virginia that way.

[Sam Spade]

Me, I'd move Hawaii one down on account of potentially divisive primary (though maybe you've looked at Republican challengers and noticed they aren't worth sh!t - I haven't) ... Florida one up ... New Jersey one up - basically that'll go Democrat by not too small a margin unless Menendez comes out personally looking bad out of some future scandal, which seeing as he's a North Jersey Democrat is definitely possible ... Nevada one down.

I haven't looked at this list in a while, but I'll comment below with my own "revisions"

There is no Hawaii Republican in the race who's raised a dime so far, so to me that means total non-entities.  HI-02 will probably be the most interesting general election race this year there, imo.

Considering polls, on the Democratic side Florida should probably moved to Safe, along with Vermont.  If I'm being quite literal with my own scale, I should probably pull Byrd down to Likely D, not because I think he has a chance of losing, but because he might be held to 60% or under this year and the polling on that race feels very similar to Virginia.  But since I really don't care, I leave him at safe.

Because of the Mason-Dixon poll out today on Montana, I would move it to lean Democrat.

I know your feelings on New Jersey and I know the way New Jersey typically goes as elections move on, but until I see that trend consistently emerge in the polling of this race, I will leave it at where the polling indicates it's at.

In Ohio, I believe Mason-Dixon over the others, period.  The recent uni poll confirms my suspicions on this one somewhat, though I would like to see more.

You and I actually agree on Rhode Island.  It's sort of funny, when I think about it.

Tennessee is on the cusp of being moved to Likely, especially if Corker wins the primary.

I actually think Arizona may be the one out of those three to become closer now, which changes my opinion of earlier.  Polling influences this opinion here, but a lot of Arizona polling tends to be shoddy, at best, so I may be totally wrong.

I am close to agreeing with you on Nevada.

Hope that revision is helpful.    I may be more thorough come July 1 or so.

[Sam Spade]

I'm moving Ohio to toss-up, just because of the Mason-Dixon/SUSA split in opinion of the race.

[Sam Spade]

I'm going to move Arizona back to Likely R.  This really has little to do with Rasmussen, but the BRC poll which said otherwise didn't look correct in terms of crosstabs or answers and without another poll saying anything concurrent for a while, I'm going back to my gut (Virginia will be much more in play than Arizona).

About Virginia, if another poll comes out saying what Rasmussen does, expect me to move it to Lean R.  Unlike any other state where an incumbent is running, what I'm stating below could happen.

Frankly, Webb could reach 45%-46% (the Kerry number), if Virginia Democrats treat Allen as if he is Bush and register anti-GOP sentiment against that (which is possible).  The last 4% is what would be a bitch to get for Webb, if it settles into a Presidential-like contest.  Potentially, this is what I see shaping up.  It would be interesting.

Just as an overall viewpoint, expect me to be more conservative on Senate races until the end, because there will be a lot of polls after Labor Day to gauge the races on.

I will be more liberal on House races, because national trends tend to impact these races more.  Also, there is simply less polling, so if a wave is growing I'd like to be on top of it, rather than rushing to correct. 

[Sam Spade]

Sam:  wanna make some sort of wager on Arizona?  I'll wager on Pederson and you on Kyl?

I don't wager on politics unless I have seen both candidates publicly, but I'm curious as to what your terms are.

[Sam Spade]

I decided to give an August 1 update to be nice.    Little has changed, though.

Safe Democratic
California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Vermont (I)*
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Likely Democratic
Connecticut (whether it's Lieberman or Lamont, it's still a Dem seat.  I'm just waiting until the primary is over to see if the Republicans attempt to put up a better candidate).
Michigan
Nebraska
Pennsylvania (D)

Lean Democratic
Maryland*
Minnesota*
Montana (R) (still waiting on more polling)
Washington

Toss Up
Missouri (R) 
New Jersey (D)*
Ohio (R)
Rhode Island (R)

Lean Republican

Likely Republican
Arizona
Nevada (one poll does not make a major move for me, unless M-D.  So, I'm leaving it here until more polling comes out)
Tennessee
Virginia

Safe Republican
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

[Sam Spade]

August 15 changes to my list:

The odd one:

I see CT as a Toss-up between D and I/D.  R has no chance.

Rest:

Michigan: Likely D to Lean D
Nevada: Likely R to Safe R
Pennsylvania: Likely D to Lean D (ya, I expect to get some laughs about this.  I still Santorum's going to lose, just perhaps by not as much)
Ohio: Toss-up to Lean D

Comments:
I might move Minnesota to Likely D if I see another poll (independent and not Star-Tribune) validate Rasmussen's last number.

I am suspicious about Montana.  The only poll that has showed the race outside MOE is the poll one month ago from Raz that is quite different than his most recent one.  Rest assured, the next M-D poll will determine whether I can the race Toss-up or Lean D.

I am unsure about Rhode Island.  Only Rasmussen has polled there recently, and I am leery to make moves on Senate races based on one poll.

[Sam Spade]

I'm putting Connecticut in Lean I/D.  If Lieberman keeps pulling this number of Republicans, he's going to be hard to beat.

[Sam Spade]

Moving Virginia to Lean R.