Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps

[Downwinder]

March 2006:
Based mostly on my gut feeling.

Rhode Island:  Chafee takes an easier than expected win vs. Whitehouse,  55%-43%.

Maryland:  Cardin wins the open seat versus Steele, 54%-45%.

Pennsylvania:  While not the blow-out that it might have been, Casey still defeats Santorum, 53%-46%.

Montana:  Morrison burns Burns, 52%-46%.

Minnesota:  Klobuchar takes the open seat over Kennedy, 52%-46%.

Missouri:  McCaskill beats Talent, 52%-47%.

New Jersey:  Menendez wins by just a hair versus Kean, 50.6%-49.1%.

Nevada:  Election night surprise!!  Goodman 50.2%, Ensign 49.6%.

Other interesting races:

Tennessee:  Bryant 58%, Ford 41%.

Ohio:  DeWine 57%, Brown 42%.

Florida: Nelson 57%, Harris 39%.

Washington:  Cantwell 58%, McGavick 40%.

Nebraska:  Nelson 59%, Ricketts 41%.

Virginia:  Allen 59%, Webb 41%.

Michigan:  Stabenow 59%, Bouchard 40%.



(R)51
(D)48
(I)1

[Downwinder]

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

I don't know if Goodman is running either; I don't know when the filing deadline is in Nevada.  Goodman has been making noise about running.  I included him only because I believe he is the most viable challenger.

[Downwinder]

June 2006:

Again, this is based mostly on my gut feeling, and it has changed a bit since my predictions in March.  I still believe that negative ratings for Bush and the Republican Congress will swing several toss-up seats to Democrat, and hold the margin of victory down in a Safe Republican seats.  I'm not basing anything on certain polls, but rather on accumulation of polls and other media, and the aforementioned gut feeling.


Maryland:  Cardin wins the open seat versus Steele, 56%-43%.

Pennsylvania:  While not the blow-out that it might have been, Casey still defeats Santorum, 54%-45%.

Montana:  Tester burns Burns, 54%-44%.

Rhode Island:  After a close primary win over Laffey, Chafee loses to Whitehouse, 53%-46%.

Minnesota:  Klobuchar takes the open seat over Kennedy, 52%-46%.

Missouri:  McCaskill beats Talent, 52%-47%.

New Jersey:  Menendez wins over Kean, 51%-48%.

Ohio:  Brown edges out DeWine, 51%-49%


Other interesting races:

Arizona:  Kyl 54%, Pederson 44%

Washington:  Cantwell 55%, McGavick 43%.

Tennessee:  Corker 57%, Ford 42%.

Virginia:  Allen 58%, Webb 42%.

Nebraska:  Nelson 59%, Ricketts 41%.

Michigan:  Stabenow 59%, Bouchard 40%.

Nevada:  Ensign 60%, Carter 40%.  (I move it to safe republican, now that Goodman is not in the running.)

Florida: Nelson 64%, Harris 30%.  (Only included because it was supposed to be interesting, and is embarrasingly not.)

Connecticut:  Assuming Lieberman survives his primary challenge from Lamont, Lieberman 75%, Schlesinger 20%.  If Lamont is the Democratic nominee, and Lieberman runs as independent:  Lieberman 53%, Lamont 35%, Schlesinger 10%; but then who does Joe caucus with?  Right now, I go with Lieberman winning the primary and general.


R 50
D 49
I 1

[Downwinder]

I assume you put the wrong color in WV, Downwinder?

Dammit, I did.  Sorry, that.  WV is just so easy to forget!

[Downwinder]

Sorry to ask a question, probably asked many times before, but how do you generate these senate maps?  In any event, the GOP drops Pennsylvania and Montana, and picks up New Jersey, for a GOP loss of one seat.

It's quite simple, actually: go here, set the winner of each state and the percentage you want, then click "Show map link" at the bottom, and finally copy and paste the text you see into the post in which you want the map to appear.  To make a state grey, just set it to "toss-up" (the T column).

As a more advanced thing to do, if you want to set Vermont to be green (for "independent"), look at the thing you copied and pasted for something that looks like this:

VT=#;#;#

where "#" is some number.

To make it green, change the first number to "3", which is the number for "independent", so it then looks like this:

VT=3;#;#

[Downwinder]

October 2, 2006:

Montana:  Tester 56%, Burns 43%.

Minnesota:  Klobuchar 55% Kennedy 43%.

Pennsylvania:  Casey 54% Santorum 45%.

Ohio:  Brown 54% DeWine 44%

Maryland:  Cardin 54% Steele 44%

Washington:  Cantwell 54% McGavick 43%

Rhode Island:  Whitehouse 53% Chafee 46%.

Tennessee:  Ford 53% Corker 45%

New Jersey:  Kean 52% Menendez 47%

Virginia:  Webb 50% Allen 49%

Missouri:  McCaskill 49% Talent 48%

Connecticut: Lamont 48% Lieberman 46%


R 50
D 49
I 1